Countless travelers have experienced a uniquely unsettling feeling of turbulence while on a plane. You squeeze your eyes shut and grip your hands tightly onto the armrest, preparing for the roller coaster that's about to come.
Turbulence can be severe and cause injuries during flight. According to the Federal Aviation Administration, between 2009 and 2022, 163 passengers and crew members on U.S.-registered aircraft suffered serious injuries due to turbulence.
Death is extremely rare, but it does happen. A 73-year-old man was killed on Tuesday when a flight from London to Singapore encountered severe turbulence and plummeted 6,000 feet within minutes. Singapore Airlines said in a statement that 18 more people were hospitalized and a further 12 were being treated for injuries.
Dozens of passengers have been injured in other accidents over the past few years. In March 2023, a Lufthansa flight from Texas to Frankfurt encountered severe turbulence, leaving seven passengers hospitalized with minor injuries. Also in December 2022, a Hawaiian Airlines flight from Phoenix to Honolulu encountered turbulence shortly before landing, injuring about 24 people, including an infant.
Recent reports raise the question whether turbulence is becoming more frequent and intense.
To learn more about this unpredictable weather phenomenon, we spoke to several experts. Here's what they said:
What is turbulence?
Turbulence is unstable air movement caused by changes in wind speed and direction, such as jet streams, thunderstorms, and cold or warm fronts. They vary in severity and can cause mild to dramatic changes in altitude and airspeed.
This is not only related to bad weather, but can also occur when the sky appears calm. Additionally, it may not be visible visually or on weather radar.
There are four classifications of turbulence: mild, moderate, severe, and extreme. According to the National Weather Service, extreme turbulence can cause pilots to lose control of the plane and can even cause structural damage to the plane.
Is turbulence increasing? If so, why?
Recent studies have shown that turbulence is increasing and that this change is being caused by climate change, specifically increased carbon dioxide emissions which affect air currents.
Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading in the UK, has been studying turbulence for more than a decade.
Dr Williams' research found that clear air turbulence, which occurs most often at high altitudes and in winter, could triple by the end of the century. He said this type of turbulence in all categories is increasing at all flight altitudes around the world.
His research suggests that in the coming years, turbulence during flights could increase, leading to more injuries to passengers and crew.
How is turbulence monitored and measured?
Meteorologists utilize a variety of algorithms, satellites, and radar systems to create detailed aviation forecasts for conditions such as cold air, wind speed, thunderstorms, and turbulence. Lets you know when and where turbulence is likely to occur.
Jennifer Struthers, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said: The Aviation Weather Center says turbulence is “undoubtedly one of the most difficult to predict.”
Using these forecasts, in addition to instructions from air traffic controllers, pilots adjust altitude to try to find the smoothest flight and avoid areas of turbulence. This means flying higher or lower than the altitude at which forecasters predict turbulence, which can be costly and can burn more fuel than originally expected.
Robert Sumwalt, former National Transportation Safety Board chairman and current director of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University's new Aviation Safety Center, emphasized that it is impossible to prevent or predict all turbulence. .
“There's always the possibility of an unexpected rough sea,” Sumwalt said, “but it usually won't hurt you or rip a wing off the plane.”
Turbulence also poses a greater threat to smaller planes, which are more susceptible to changes in wind speeds than larger passenger jets, said Strozas of the National Weather Service.
Is it that dangerous? How can I stay safe in turbulence?
Airplanes are designed to withstand harsh conditions, and turbulence rarely causes structural damage to the aircraft.
However, turbulence can throw passengers and crew around, potentially causing serious injuries such as broken bones or bleeding. Experts stressed that remaining seated and wearing seatbelts whenever possible during the flight is the best way to reduce risk.
“If you're secure, you're much less likely to get injured,” says Thomas Guinn, a professor of applied aeronautical science at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.
In severe turbulence, the plane's vertical motion would exceed gravity, Dr. Williams said.
“What that means is that if you're not wearing your seat belt, by definition you're a projectile, a catapult, and you're going to fly out of your seat,” he said.
Fatal accidents caused by turbulence are extremely rare, but they do happen. According to an NTSB investigation, the last time a passenger died from turbulence-related injuries on a commercial flight operated by a U.S. airline was in 1997, when a United Airlines flight from Tokyo to Honolulu encountered severe turbulence over the Pacific Ocean. was. Investigators believe the passenger was not wearing a seatbelt and may have jumped out of his seat and hit his head on the luggage compartment.
However, not all deaths attributed to severe turbulence are actually caused by turbulence. In March 2023, a former White House aide died from what were initially fatal injuries caused by severe turbulence aboard a business jet flying from New Hampshire to Virginia. However, a preliminary investigation by the NTSB found that the plane's pilot turned off a switch that stabilized the plane, causing it to briefly shake in the air.
What about the baby on your lap?
Children under the age of 2 are allowed to sit on an adult's lap during a flight, but many industry experts believe this practice should be banned due to risks such as turbulence. .
The Flight Attendants Association (CWA), a union representing about 50,000 flight attendants at 19 airlines, has argued for decades that every passenger deserves a seat of their own, regardless of age. .
The union's president, Sarah Nelson, said in an interview that turbulence has become “so common” these days that the need to properly secure infants in child seats during flights has become a higher priority.
“What we're talking about is something that happens inside the cabin, and it's potentially deadly, but if you do the right thing to protect yourself, you can survive,” Nelson said.
