President Biden ended his reelection campaign Sunday after faltering in post-debate national and battleground state polls, worsening his position in three Rust Belt states crucial to his reelection and widening former President Donald J. Trump's slim lead just under four weeks after the debate.
Times poll average for three key states
Trump +5 Michigan.
Trump +5 Pa.
Trump +4 Whis.
Trump +3 we
Note: The Times polling average for Biden vs. Trump is archived here .
The New York Times
Biden's support in the polls has fallen again since a gunman tried to assassinate Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13. The president lost support in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as other battleground states where he was already trailing by 4 to 5 points.
Trump +7 Nev.
Trump +7 Yeh.
Trump +7 Arizona
Trump +6 North Carolina
Trump +3 we
Biden's path to the presidency has narrowed as he has been losing ground in battleground state polls, likely contributing to his decision to drop out of the race. Several Democratic officials have publicly expressed concern about recent polling trends in urging Biden to step aside.
Polls and the Electoral College
Both Biden and Trump had states they thought they could win in November, but they needed to win the 270 electoral votes. Here's a look at the nine states where the vote count was the closest in 2020 or where voting was closing on July 21.
Biden: 4 or 5 points In these states.
Note: Biden vs. Trump head-to-head averages are shown.
The New York Times
Were the polls wrong or underestimating Biden's support? Possibly, but Biden's margin of support was approaching the biggest poll miss in a recent election. Assuming the polls hadn't changed before Election Day, Biden would have needed to lose by at least 5 points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
What if the polls are wrong?
The ranges on this graph represent the magnitude of each state's largest polling outlier in recent elections in relation to the final Biden vs. Trump polling average.
| 6 Points (2016) |
The scope of voting errors
|
| 3 Points (2012) |
|
| 9 points. (2020) |
|
| 5 Points (2022) |
|
| 6 Points (2022) |
|
| 6 Points (2016) |
|
| 3 Points (2022) |
|
| 2 Points (2016) |
|
| 4 Points (2012) |
Note: Showing Biden vs. Trump head-to-head averages. Polling margin of error based on New York Times averages published in 2012, 2016 and 2020, and FiveThirtyEight's 2022 midterm election averages for each state's Senate or gubernatorial race.
The New York Times
The Times released its latest polling average, showing Trump holding a slight lead nationally over Vice President Kamala Harris, who is currently the front-runner for the Democratic nomination. Most of the polling was conducted before Harris became the nominee, and there is currently little to no polling on the new state-level matchups. It may be at least a week or two before we get a broader sense of how Harris' entry will affect the race.
