While most voters in the 27 European Union member states supported centrist parties, the European Parliament elections gave significant seats to far-right parties, strengthening them as a disruptive force, causing political shocks in France and destabilizing the EU's mainstream establishment.
Partial results published late Sunday showed that centrist political groups are set to suffer some losses but conservatives still hold a clear majority of more than 400 seats in the 720-seat parliament, giving them a decisive victory. The nationalist, anti-immigration European Parliament group is expected to win around 130 seats, a better result than in the last election in 2019.
The vote signaled a cooling of the winds for parts of Europe's political system and highlighted that the far-right, which has posed a growing challenge to centrism over the past decade, has yet to reach its zenith.
The predicted outcome did not bode well for Europe's centrist leaders and their parties, particularly the continent's largest countries, France and Germany, which are seen as the driving forces behind Europe's experiment in national sovereign integration.
The result came as a particular shock to French President Emmanuel Macron, who immediately announced on national television after the election that he would dissolve the National Assembly and call for new parliamentary elections.
“The rise of nationalists and demagogues is dangerous for our country and for Europe,” he warned.
The result may put Mr Macron's chief rival, Marine Le Pen, in the strongest position ever to challenge the French establishment in presidential elections three years from now, at which point Mr Macron would have to step down due to term limits.
The far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD), officially classified by German authorities as a “suspect” extremist group, also performed well.
The party was expected to win around 16 percent of the vote, making it Germany's second-largest party, behind the mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union but ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats.
Right-wing parties now govern, alone or in coalitions, in seven of the 27 European Union member states. They have grown in strength across the continent as voters become increasingly focused on nationalism and identity, often combining it with issues of immigration and the culture war politics around gender and LGBTQ issues that have gained momentum in the United States.
The strength of the far-right is also likely to send ripples through the United States, where it is expected to embolden kindred political forces loyal to former President Donald J. Trump as he seeks a return to the presidency.
Other factors fuelling the right's rise include deep-rooted anger over coronavirus policies and rising inflation sparked by the pandemic and as a result of the war in Ukraine, which has shifted Europe away from cheap Russian energy.
The elections have exposed real weaknesses in the governments of France and Germany, core members of the EU, where traditionally little happens without their leadership.
“With a Trump administration on the horizon and the prospect of a major war in Europe growing, there are serious questions about how Europe will be able to respond to such a threat, given France and Germany's domestic fragility,” said Mujtaba Rahman, Europe director at consultancy Eurasia Group.
European Union leaders have already watered down environmental policies and overhauled the bloc's immigration policies to address concerns from traditional conservative and right-wing voters, but a victory for a more radical right-wing party could lead to tougher borders and a scaling back of the bloc's climate ambitions.
Despite the far-right's gains, the European People's Party, the mainstream conservative bloc in the European Parliament, maintained its number one position with 189 seats, 13 more than in the last election, and was on track to achieve a significant increase in seats. However, the other two centrist parties suffered losses, undermining their political centre at the European level.
The Progressive Alliance of Social Democrats lost four seats and is expected to finish in second place with 135 seats. The liberal political group Renew Group lost one of its five seats and is expected to finish with 83 seats.
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission and a member of Europe's conservative faction, celebrated her party's victory and publicly called on other centrists to work together to ensure a “strong and effective Europe.”
“We are the linchpin of stability,” von der Leyen told reporters at the European Parliament in Brussels late on Sunday. “This result carries a great responsibility for the centrist parties. We may differ in individual respects, but we all have an interest in stability,” she said.
The biggest loser in the election appears to be the Green Party, whose support has fallen by a quarter since five years ago. Still, with 53 seats, it could play a key role in consolidating a centrist majority to replace the far-right parties.
Final figures for all 27 EU member states are due to be published early on Monday.
The outcome is expected to broadly maintain the balance of power among the EU's top leaders, including the president of the powerful European Commission, the EU's executive arm, and the European Parliament, which approves legislation and the budget.
The first test for the weakened centrist majority will come over the confirmation of the new European Commission president, due in July.
Von der Leyen was confirmed by just nine votes five years ago and is likely to be nominated again this time, but will need intensive lobbying to secure her appointment.
Having narrowly avoided alienating centrists by failing to secure the support of far-right parties, she now faces the Socialists and Liberals, who want more moderate policy pledges, especially on climate change, and whose votes she needs to secure a second term as European Commission chief.
Agreements on migration and Ukraine with potential centrist partners would make the process smoother.
The European Commission president needs a simple majority vote to be confirmed, which is done in secret and has in the past alienated perceived supporters.
Aurélien Breeden He contributed reporting from Paris.
