For decades, Iranian leaders have touted high voter turnout in elections as proof of the legitimacy of the Islamic republic's political system. But voter turnout has plummeted in recent years, and an election forced to take place after the death of President Ebrahim Raisi would force the political system to make unwanted decisions.
The country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has two options, each with risks.
The presidential election, which the constitution requires to be held within 50 days of Raisi's death, could be open to anyone from hardliners to reformists. But it risks a competitive election that could lead the country in a direction the president does not want.
Or he could repeat the strategy of recent elections and thwart not only reformist rivals but even moderate and loyal opposition forces. That choice could leave him facing the embarrassment of further declines in voter turnout, and the move could be interpreted as a scathing rebuke to the increasingly authoritarian country.
Voter turnout in Iran has been on the decline in recent years. In 2016, more than 60 percent of the country's voters participated in parliamentary elections. By 2020, this figure was 42%. Officials had vowed that the results for March would be even higher, but in reality they were just under 41%.
The final round of parliamentary elections in Tehran, just a week before Raisi's death, had won just 8% of the potential vote, compared to the 30% to 40% that Ayatollah Khamenei once led Western democracies to the polls. This is an astonishing number for a country that used to be ridiculed for its high rates.
Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iranian political analyst and editor-in-chief of Amwaj, said: “Khamenei has a great opportunity to make it easier for people to participate in the political process in a face-saving way – if… If he chooses to take this opportunity.” Independent news organization. “Unfortunately, what's happened in the last few years shows he won't go down that path.”
Iran is a theocratic state with a parallel system of governance in which elected bodies are overseen by an appointed council. Major national nuclear, military, and diplomatic policies are determined by Ayatollah Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council, while the Revolutionary Guards have increased their economic and political influence.
Although the president's role is limited to domestic policy and economic matters, it is still an influential position.
Elections remain an important litmus test for national sentiment. The low turnout in recent years is seen as a clear sign of a deteriorating climate against the clergy and of an increasingly hardline and conservative political system.
“This distance, the disconnect between state and society, is a serious problem for the regime,” said Sanam Vakil, head of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank. “What they want is to contain conservative unity, but it will be difficult to replace Mr. Raisi.”
Raisi, a cleric who worked for years in the judiciary and was involved in some of the most brutal acts of repression in the country's history, was a staunch supporter of Ayatollah Khamenei and his worldview.
A devoted supporter of religious rule in Iran, Raisi has long been considered a potential successor to the supreme leader, despite or perhaps because he lacks the pushy personality that would be a danger to Khamenei. It was seen for a while. With currently no clear candidate to support, Khamenei could face infighting within his conservative base.
“Raisi was a yes man, and his unimpressiveness was kind of the point,” said Arash Azizi, a historian who focuses on Iran and lectures at Clemson University in South Carolina. “The political system contains a lot of people with serious economic and political interests. There will be a struggle for power.”
The candidates who are allowed to run will be an indication of what path the supreme leader wants to take.
Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, a pragmatic technocrat, speaker of parliament and one of the country's permanent presidential candidates, will likely try to run. However, Azizi said his performance in parliament in recent years has received poor reviews. Although parliament has done little to resolve Iran's economic crisis and Ghalibaf has described himself as the voice of Iran's poor, he went on a shopping trip with his family to Turkey in 2022. The report sparked public anger.
Another likely candidate is Saeed Jalili, a former Revolutionary Guards fighter turned nuclear negotiator and considered a hardliner of Khamenei. Azizi said his candidacy does not bode well for potential support to Western countries.
In all of Iran's recent elections, Khamenei has shown a readiness to weed out reformist and even moderate candidates seen as loyal opposition parties. The results are clear: Raisi won the 2021 presidential election with a record low turnout of 48%. By contrast, more than 70 percent of Iran's 56 million eligible voters cast their ballots when President Hassan Rouhani was elected in 2017.
And so far, there are no signs that Iran's political establishment is about to change course.
“The regime is moving away from its republican roots and becoming more authoritarian,” Baqir said, adding of Khamenei: I hope to see changes. ”
Elie Geranmae, an Iran analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the most likely thing to stop Khamenei from expanding his candidacy is ensuring a smooth and stable transition of power once a new supreme leader is chosen. He said he would like to see the leadership he can provide. Khamenei is 85 years old and in poor health.
But Khamenei has equally compelling reasons to consider opening the door to moderates. Under Mr. Raisi, the country faced a series of dramatic upheavals, with an economic downturn and soaring unemployment. And the violent crackdown on anti-government protests that erupted in 2021 following the custodial death of a young woman accused of wearing a headscarf inappropriately has disillusioned large sections of the population.
While it seems highly unlikely that Khamenei will change course, Geranmaeh said “the Iranian regime has the capacity to surprise itself.”
Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was known as a hardliner, but he surprised the political world with his populist tendencies.
And Rouhani, a moderate within the regime, surprised many by trying to open up economically to the West and managed to reach a nuclear deal before it was abandoned by then-U.S. President Donald J. Trump.
However, there are no obvious moderates participating in the election campaign, and even if they did, it is unclear how the public would react.
“With such a strong sense of disillusionment, it's a big question whether people will go to vote or not,” Geranmae said.
And in countries where leaders came to power on the back of popular revolutions, and where anti-government protests have already forced governments into repressive backlash to stop them, the long-term risks are clear. said Shabani from the political world. Analyst.
“When people stop believing in change through the ballot box, there's only one choice,” he said.
