According to USA Today's database, Lincoln Riley is the fourth highest paid coach in college football. It's pretty safe to assume that USC is in the top 10 in assistant coach salaries, and probably close to the top 5.
In theory, the return on this type of salary should result in a top 10 return. Riley is in his third year in office. his list. his staff. his program. his vision. This probably sounds like a broken record, but Riley simply hasn't realized the investment that USC made in him.
That's been clear for weeks, but after the Trojans' 29-28 loss to Maryland on Saturday night, it should have become clear to everyone.
USC (3-4, 1-4 Big Ten) is good enough to play all games. The Trojans have led in the fourth quarter with each loss. All of those games were winnable.
However, USC continues to fail time and time again. This time, Maryland blocked Michael Lantz's 41-yard field goal attempt with two minutes left. The Trojans couldn't block properly up front, forcing USC to force its defense back onto the field instead of leading 31-22 late in the game. Less than a minute later, Maryland scored the winning touchdown. The offensive line broke through midfield, but was unable to get within field goal range.
final. pic.twitter.com/FV5InVZSg2
— USC Football ✌️ (@uscfb) October 19, 2024
Riley was then asked why USC has struggled to shut out games.
“I don't know,” he said.
It doesn't really matter what Riley says. The important thing is that he finds solutions to what the team is not achieving on the field. So far, he hasn't done that.
And therein lies the problem. Week in and week out, USC's defense fails to come up with a fourth down stop when it absolutely needs to. The offense faltered at a critical moment when it had a chance to end the game. It was the special teams that made the critical mistakes in key situations.
This team just finds a way to lose games.
“We were a good enough team to have a chance to win every game, but we weren't a good enough team to pull away,” Riley told reporters after the loss. You have to make some plays to beat someone. Especially on the road. You're going to have to make a field goal, make a fourth-down tackle, catch, throw, block, whatever, because it's not going to be handed to you. ”
We know what the recruiting rankings are suggesting. I know where USC ranks on the 247Sports Team Talent Composite. And I know the Trojans have more talent than Minnesota or Maryland. But they also know that USC doesn't have the talent to separate them from their opponents. Not in a critical location, i.e. in the trenches, and not in the way Riley described above. And even if this team is more talented than the Golden Gophers or Terrapins, the difference isn't so decisive that they can get away with making sloppy mistakes.
It took the Rileys three years to build this roster. If the Trojans don't have enough talent right now, that's on him. We should probably stop talking about him not being able to wave a magic wand. There's not a lot of reason to believe that USC will dramatically improve in talent in year four. The Trojans' 2025 freshman class is ranked in the top 10 nationally, but expecting too much from a true freshman is a fool's errand.
Keep in mind that next year's schedule includes road games at Notre Dame and Oregon State, as well as a home game against Michigan State.
Even if USC is able to upgrade its roster in a significant way, it will need to address the issue of attention to detail. That's been lacking throughout Riley's tenure. Mario Williams failed to make a fair catch on a key kickoff against Tulane in the Cotton Bowl two years ago, and John Humphrey and Kamari Ramsey failed to tackle Michigan running back Karel Mullins. Due to this, he turned a 15-yard gain into a 63-yard run and lost the set. Raise the Wolverines' game-winning score – in September, or if you miss a block on Lantz's field goal attempt Saturday night.
Coaches often say, “You're either coaching it, or you're allowing it to happen.'' These types of mistakes, like losing a close game, are a reflection of the head coach's personality. USC has increased its lead by 14 points in each of the past two weeks. Riley has lost 12 games as the Trojans' coach. His team blew a 14-point lead in five of those games.
Certainly, each loss can be explained in isolation, but these losses are patterned. Something that cannot be explained.
“We're doing a lot of heavy lifting to win games against strong teams,” Riley said.
At 3-4, USC fell below .500 for the first time in Riley's tenure. He needs to change something structurally in the way the program runs. Of course, there will be calls for him to be fired, but that's not realistic unless it costs about $80 million.
Therefore, Riley and USC may be working together on this issue for some time. The Trojans' coach can't put any effort into how the program is run. He is 11-11 since going 11-1 in the 2022 regular season. No matter what I do, it doesn't work. As we enter the offseason, that kind of reflection will occur. But why wasn't that done last offseason after a disastrous 7-5 regular season?
The culture looks better than last season, but that will be tested in the coming weeks.
The Trojans never looked more indifferent last season in a rivalry game against UCLA. So Riley has to prove he can keep this team motivated.
It's late October and USC already has nothing to play for except the Pride. That's not how it should be in year three.
(Photo: Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
