Many programs aimed at avoiding violence, instability and extremism exacerbated by global warming will be caught up in efforts to dismantle USAID, the leading American aid agency
One such project helped the community manage water stations in Niger, a hotbed of Islamic extremist groups where rare water-mediated conflicts are common. The other helped to repair a hydrotherapy plant in the strategic port city of Basra, Iraq, where dry taps sparked violent anti-government protests. USAID's oldest program, Famine Early Warning Systems Network, implemented a forecasting system last year that allowed aid workers to prepare for catastrophic floods in places like war-torn South Sudan.
The fate of these programs remains uncertain. The Trump administration essentially tried to shut down its agents. The federal court issued a temporary restraining order. On the ground, much of the work has stopped.
“They were reducing future risks,” said Erinsikorsky, director of the Climate Center Center and former US intelligence director. “You don't have to invest a little today and spend a lot in the future when things move on.”
This week, the German government issued a report calling climate change “the biggest security threat of our day and age.” This reflects the US intelligence report from 2021.
Some USAID funds supported mediation programs to prevent local clashes through land and water. For example, as rain becomes more precarious in Africa's Sahel region, clashes between farmers and cattle herds become more frequent as they come into contact with the Sahara desert.
Other USAID funds supported vocational training to provide young people with alternatives adopted by terrorist organisations. One such program in Kenya offered motorcycle repair training. Other programs have funded research into crop seeds that can withstand disease and drought, including a new variety of coffee for the global market. Another biodiversity has been promoted in Colombia, and is still recovering from decades of war.
Climate change adds to the pressures faced by vulnerable countries. Since the start of the industrial era, fossil fuel burning has raised average global temperatures, and extreme weather events such as drought, floods and stormwater surges have become worse at sea. This has strengthened water shortages, hampered food production, and led to increased resource competition.
The US National Intelligence Council stated in 2021 that “climate change is the increasing physical impact and geopolitical tensions increase over the way geopolitical tensions respond to the situation,” the US National Intelligence Council stated in 2021. It will make the risk worse and worse.”
The report identified specific flashpoints that include cross-border water tensions, and said some countries could experience instability, including food and energy systems tensions. We have identified almost 12 particularly vulnerable countries, including Niger, Chad and Ethiopia. “Building resilience in these countries and regions will likely be particularly useful in mitigating future risks to US interests,” he said.
It was the goal of several USAID projects to help people deal with climate shocks.
In Kenya, in six cycles that failed to arrive on time between 2022 and 2024, the USAID project helped local farmers cooperatives get fast-growing seeds that can almost grow in water. Amaranth, beans, grams of green. The order to stop the job would be felt immediately, aid workers said.
“People can measure enough to measure climate shocks,” said aid agencies staff members who were asked not to be identified due to concerns about retaliation against aid groups. “In some cases, people will die of hunger.”
When drought was predicted in Ethiopia, the USAID project supported the vaccination of animals and encouraged the animals to be sold while pastoral communities were still healthy. Several agricultural researchers at American universities received USAID money to develop more nutritious, higher yield seeds.
The water program was a major part of USAID's climate resistance portfolio. In Basra, the agency funded repairs to the water treatment plant at the site of anti-government riots that broke out after contaminated water led to more than 100,000 hospitalizations. In Central Asia, agents spent $24.5 million to cooperate with shared water sources to five countries.
In southwest Niger, the agency helped cooperate in agreements on how cattle grazing corridors and water wells are managed peacefully. In Benin, we bring together farmers and pastoral communities, meaning droughts are coming, meaning pastoralists and pastoralists sometimes make animals more prone to others. They let the farm graze and the conflict became uncontrollable.
Anne Vaughn, former assistant assistant at USAID, said he is most concerned about the region where water instability promotes anxiety and encourages us to exploit the crisis. “With everything is going on in the Middle East,” she said. “It creates a lot of tension, like taps don't turn on and don't have the right seeds.”
