The commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces has issued a harsh assessment of the military's position on the Eastern Front, saying it has “deteriorated significantly in recent days.”
Russian forces are working hard to exploit their growing superiority in manpower and ammunition to break through the Ukrainian front, commander General Oleksandr Shirsky said in a statement over the weekend.
“Despite heavy losses, the enemy is intensifying its attacks by introducing new units on armored vehicles, thanks to which we are regularly achieving tactical gains,” the general said.
At the same time, Ukraine's Ministry of Energy is asking millions of civilians to charge mobile batteries, take generators out of storage, and provide assistance to millions of civilians as devastating Russian airstrikes damage or destroy Ukraine's power plants. He urged people to “prepare for all scenarios.”
With little critical military supplies flowing into Ukraine from the United States for months, commanders are being forced to make difficult choices about where to deploy limited resources as civilian casualties mount daily.
Even before American aid disappears (a bill providing $60 billion in military and other aid could be voted on in the House of Representatives this week), there is a sense among Ukrainian commanders and military analysts that war There was a consensus that this would be the third year. very difficult thing.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned again Monday night that delays in U.S. aid are exacerbating challenges on the front lines, and the latest information from Ukrainian intelligence suggests that the Kremlin expects some kind of major attack in late spring or early summer. He said that he is suggesting that he is preparing.
The three most important challenges for Ukraine are a lack of ammunition, a lack of well-trained soldiers, and a weakened air defense system.
Now, as Russia ramps up its attacks, individual issues compound the impact of other vulnerabilities, increasing the risk that Russian forces will penetrate Ukraine's defenses.
Here we take a look at the significant challenges currently facing Ukraine and how its leaders are trying to alleviate them.
shell hanger
In testimony before Congress last week, the top American military officer in Europe, Gen. Christopher G. Cavoly, gave a frank assessment of Ukraine's severe ammunition shortage.
General Cavoli said, “If one side can fire and the other cannot fire back, the side that can't fire back loses.”
He said the United States is providing most of the shells to Ukraine, and Russia will soon be able to fire 10 shells for every Ukrainian shell.
“If we don't continue to help Ukraine, it could be defeated,” he testified, urging lawmakers to approve a new aid package.
Large artillery like rocket systems and howitzers have longer range and greater destructive power, are less affected by weather, and are less susceptible to electronic warfare interference than drones, making them essential tools. It becomes. Drones can significantly change the battlefield, often turning any attempt to traverse open terrain suicidal, but they also have their limits.
“Drones can effectively destroy military equipment and tanks,” said Viktor Nazarov, an adviser to former top Ukrainian military commander Valery Zarzhny. “But you can't destroy a defense line with a drone.”
Nazarov said that if the enemy has a 5:1 advantage in shells, he can attack. If it's 10 to 1, you have a chance of success.
Since the fall of Avdiivka earlier this year, Russia has only captured small tracts of land at great expense without making any major operational breakthroughs. But after replenishing its arsenal with help from North Korea and Iran, Russia has taken advantage of a period of warm, dry weather in recent days to launch attacks with dozens of tanks and combat vehicles on Ukraine, officials said. officials said.
General Silsky said Russia is trying to seize the opportunity to achieve operational breakthroughs along several main attack lines that pose the most immediate threat to the town of Chassiv Yar. This heavily fortified hilltop town, 11 miles west of Bakhmut, protects a cluster of some of the largest cities in the Donbass region, including the headquarters of the Eastern Command in Kramatorsk.
Ukrainian commanders hope that several efforts by European allies to secure hundreds of thousands of shells will soon begin to alleviate the urgent need.
Czech Republic President Petr Pavel told reporters last week that his country now has 1 million confirmed 155-caliber shells, 200,000 more than previously estimated, and is seeking funding from 15 countries to purchase them. said they are participating in the campaign.
Estonia and the UK are also leading similar efforts, Pavel said. It remains unclear how successful they will be, or how quickly large amounts of ammunition can reach the front lines.
Until then, the burden will be on the infantry. And as General Cavoly testified, the biggest killer in Ukraine remains artillery, so a Russian advantage means more Ukrainian soldiers will die. This further deepens another major weakness: military strength.
mobilization
General Yuri Sodor, the commander of Ukraine's Eastern Armed Forces, painted a dark picture last week as he addressed lawmakers ahead of a vote aimed at improving the conscription process.
He said the widespread use of drones means that armored vehicles deployed to the front line can be targeted and destroyed within 30 minutes, typically within 30 minutes. Therefore, it is primarily the infantry's responsibility to hold the position against waves of Russian infantry attacks without much support.
General Sodor said squads of eight to 10 soldiers are usually tasked with defending 100 meters of land, but Ukraine cannot always deploy a full squad.
“If you only have two soldiers, you can protect a 20-metre front line,” he says. “The question immediately arises: who will cover his remaining 80 meters?”
Congress recently passed legislation aimed at replenishing the military, but the process has taken months and many challenges remain regarding conscription. Ukraine's military command announced that it would deploy “several thousand” soldiers currently in the rear into combat positions to meet immediate needs. But that brings up another problem. It is about ensuring that soldiers sent to the front lines receive proper training.
General Silsky said the quality of training was a “serious problem” and he was working to get veterans to play a more active role in improving the situation.
But no amount of training can protect against the powerful 1,000-pound glide bombs that Russia is using to destroy Ukrainian fortifications. That's why Ukrainians say they urgently need help from Western allies to finally close the skies.
air defense
“If we talk about air combat, it should be divided into two parts,” said senior military adviser Nazarov.
“The first part is our air and missile defense against Russian missile attacks throughout our territory,” he said. “The second part is what air combat is like on the front lines.”
Ukraine is struggling on both fronts.
The Institute for the Study of War said in a special report on air operations that commanders face difficult choices about how to deploy air defenses. The report said the systems capable of intercepting Russian missiles targeting Ukrainian cities and infrastructure are the same as those needed to stop Russian bombers dropping glide bombs.
“The Russian military is slowly but steadily advancing its ground war, taking advantage of the removal of air defense systems from the front lines,” the institute said.
Ukraine's weakened air defense capabilities also make it easier for Russia to successfully target critical infrastructure, which the institute said could have a “cascading effect” on Ukraine's domestic weapons production capabilities. He said that there is a possibility of giving.
Zelenskiy said on Saturday that about 500 defense industry companies operate in Ukraine, employing about 300,000 people in the production of artillery shells, mortars, armored vehicles, anti-tank weapons, electronic warfare systems, drones and other munitions. He said he is doing so.
But factories need electricity. Ukraine's Energy Minister Herman Khrushchenko also said that attacks on energy infrastructure since late March were the heaviest of the war, worse than the 2022-23 winter bombing campaign that nearly collapsed the power grid. He said it was even bigger.
Ukraine is seeking to counter the Russian threat by attacking Russian airfields and critical infrastructure with a series of long-range drone strikes, but Kiev officials are under no illusions. Without sophisticated Western air defense systems, they are in trouble.
Kiev hopes Ukrainian pilots currently training in F-16 fighter jets will be flying over Ukraine by summer, adding a much-needed new layer of defense. However, with US support still in doubt, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is working hard to secure Patriot air defense batteries currently sitting in Europe.
Eric Schmidt Contributed report from Washington