Novak Djokovic’s Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz result – just part of the big question

Almost 20 years after that last incident, Novak Djokovic has found himself in a familiar place in the world of men's tennis. He is by far the third-ranked player in the world.

In the summer of 2007, just after turning 20, Djokovic reached the semifinals of Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and the final of the US Open. He was No. 3 in the world all of that July, dropped to No. 4 for one week in August, and then remained No. 3 until…May. It was 2009.

In his path were Rafael Nadal, who had beaten him in the French Open and Wimbledon semifinals, and Roger Federer, who had seen him off in straight sets in New York. With the exception of his 2008 Australian Open victory, losses to Nadal and Federer defined Djokovic's career from that summer until 2011. From 2008 to 2010, both beat him several more times in the final stages of majors, with Djokovic winning two of them. against them in those events.

As the 2024 season draws to a close, Djokovic has Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in front of him.

On Sunday, Sinner defeated Djokovic in straight sets in the final of the Shanghai Masters. Djokovic has won this tournament four times, more than any other player, and has a record of 39 wins and six losses. Sinner has beaten him twice this year, three times in a row, and four of the past five ATP tournaments. Meanwhile, Djokovic lost consecutively to Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final. According to Opta, Sinner becomes the sixth player to win three consecutive ATP-level matches against Djokovic.

Djokovic defeated Alcaraz 7-6 (3), 7-6 (2) to win Olympic gold in August, but has won just three sets in five matches against the top two teams this year. Two of those came in the Olympic finals and the other in a four-set loss to Sinner at the Australian Open.

Sinner and Alcaraz also share this year's four Grand Slam titles, making it the second time since 2010 that he has not played in a major in a calendar year.

Djokovic reiterated on Sunday that Grand Slam titles are the driving force behind the 37-year-old, who has won everything there is to win in the game. “The slams are really important right now and I'm still figuring out how far I can push my limits,” he said at a press conference.

The Serbian player needs one more major to break Margaret Court's record of 24 wins (nine of which came before she became a professional tennis player), but he won last year at the US Open. He won and tied this record. For the remainder of 2024 and into 2025, he knows that without the ranking points earned in other tournaments, his matchups with Sinner and Alcaraz in these majors will happen much earlier. You will have to balance the level of these four majors with maintaining fitness. And the rounds before that.

Djokovic's loss to Sinner in the semifinals was his first loss in six years at the Australian Open, which he has won 10 times. It was the second time in his Grand Slam career that Djokovic failed to win a break point, and his 17.2 percent of points won on first serve returns was his third worst performance in 2024.

Arguably the best returner in the history of the sport had a similar struggle on Sunday in Shanghai, this time winning just 34.6 percent of his second serve return points, also his third worst performance in 2024. They were able to stay solid in key moments, but Sinner was not. It was Djokovic, not Sinner, who made the crucial mistake in the crucial first set tie-break.

Djokovic, clearly not in the best of health, had another disappointing result against Alcaraz at Wimbledon. He won 16.1% of his first serve return points, the second lowest rate of the year, but said after the match that he had never seen the young Spaniard serve so well.

Djokovic also had a bad day serving. He won 40 percent of his points from second serves, the second lowest rate in 2024 and well below his annual average of 55.9 percent. The day's scoreline of 6-2, 6-2, 7-6(4) was probably enough to satisfy the defeated finalists. Alcaraz crushed Djokovic's serve at 4-4 in the third set after largely coasting through his previous four service games. To defeat Alcaraz in the Olympic final, Djokovic played his best game of the year in his most important tournament, raising his level in two tie-breaks, especially the second. Alcaraz, who converted zero of eight break points in this match, soaked in both the tiebreak and those break points.

even deeper

Tennis usually passes the torch. Carlos Alcaraz is on the run with it.

The problem for Djokovic is that Sinner and Alcaraz are performing at such a high level that there is little he can do to prepare for them in match practice without meaningful matches. His relatively sparse schedule allowed him to stay fit and secure his place in the majors through the first week, preparing for the competition by winning the early rounds. He accomplished that at this year's French Open, only to fall with a torn medial meniscus, from which he recovered to reach the Wimbledon final. He achieved it at the US Open, but then met Alexei Popyrin, who inspired him, and was unable to raise the level to meet the challenge.

Djokovic played in 12 tournaments this year, compared to Sinner 14 and Alcaraz 16 (counting last month's Davis Cup qualifiers as one event rather than two separate matches). Djokovic will likely finish the year with 14 tournaments, the same as in 2023, but two more than a year ago when he skipped the Australian Swing due to his coronavirus vaccination status. The previous year, Djokovic played in 13 tournaments.

This extremely consistent approach has generally produced consistently great results, but it is his Thanks to the world rankings and the points earned by continuously winning titles.

Sinner's defeat of Djokovic in Melbourne was a defining moment for 2024 (Daniel Pocket/Getty Images)

That may be about to change.

Djokovic has accumulated 3,910 ranking points so far in 2024, winning just one tournament and zero ATP titles, his lowest total since 2005. As a result, he finished 6th in the Italian city “Race to Turin'', where the final race of the season, the Tour, is held. The final match will be held. He is currently fourth in the ATP World Rankings behind Alexander Zverev, but is ahead of Djokovic in points but inferior in on-court quality. Djokovic will defend 1,000 of those points at the Paris Masters, which begins on October 28th, where he is the reigning champion. He does not plan to compete in any further events in 2024.

His grades also declined. The winning percentage for 2024 games is 80 percent (37 wins, 9 losses), down from 89 percent (56 wins, 7 losses) last year. This is Djokovic's lowest winning percentage in a calendar year since 2010, his last season before donning the superhero mantle and ascending into the stratosphere, when he won 77 percent of his matches. Winning an astonishing 92 percent of his matches (70-6), his 2011 was one of the best years for an individual in men's tennis history.

It's unlikely that the 37-year-old Djokovic would want to tweak the number of tournaments to try to get closer matches at majors, but without ranking points his ranking will likely drop. If the ranking goes down, the seeding rights for the Grand Slam and Masters 1000 tournaments will also go down. If his seeding in the Grand Slam and Masters 1000 tournaments drops, he will face Alcaraz and Sinner more and more quickly in the tournaments he most wants to win.

Even if you were seeded 5-8 at the Australian Open, you currently have a chance of making it to the quarterfinals with one of the teams, and to face that scenario you would need to move up one spot from your current No. 4 ranking. All you have to do is lower it.

Djokovic calmly said of his loss to Sinner over the weekend: As long as that is the case, I think I still feel the need to continue competing and the motivation to be there, and let's see how long that lasts. ”

Sinner and Alcaraz were 5 and 4 years old, respectively, when Djokovic first became world No. 3, so the chance to win should be motivation enough, but if their losses become chronic, they could quickly You will be disappointed. There's been a lot of talk over the past week about Rafael Nadal's retirement and Federer announcing his retirement in 2022 and what that means for Djokovic, the last of the sport's big three. .

After hearing the Nadal news, Djokovic said in an on-court interview in Shanghai: “I still enjoy competing, but a part of me has gone with them. A big part of me has gone with them. ” he said.

Djokovic will defend his 1,000 ranking points at the Paris Masters, which starts in late October. (Zhang Lintao / Getty Images)

In fact, this is the third member of the group whose experience may be more relevant.

From Wimbledon in 2012 to the Australian Open in 2017, Federer failed to win a Grand Slam title. For much of that period, he found himself in a similar position to Djokovic today: No. 3 in the world, but with two rivals a rank above him. One such rival is Djokovic, who defeated Federer in three Grand Slam finals, from Wimbledon in 2014 to the US Open the following year. Meanwhile, Nadal defeated him in the 2014 Australian Open semifinals. Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka have also been complicating factors in recent years.

Federer, who was in Shanghai for Sunday's final, said younger rivals emerged, especially in the mid-to-late 2000s, when he had to deal with the Big One becoming the Big Two and then the Big Three. Maybe he can give Djokovic some advice about being persistent at times. .

There is no indication that Djokovic is thinking about the end yet.

“I don't know what the future holds. I think I'll just go with the flow and see how I feel in the moment,” he said Sunday. “I plan to come out and play next season, so let’s see how far I can go.”

Djokovic broke up a duopoly to start his career.

As he approaches the final act, he must repeat the trick to prolong it.

(Top photo: Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)