Israel and Iran have avoided direct confrontation for many years, as Israel has secretly sabotaged Tehran's interests and assassinated officials without claiming responsibility. rarely did so.
Both countries now appear willing to risk an immediate, long-term and hugely costly conflict.
After Israel invaded Lebanon to confront Hezbollah, Iran's strongest ally, and Iran's second major missile attack on Israel in less than six months, Israel is far more vulnerable than ever before. It appears poised to forcefully and openly attack Iran directly, and Iran has warned of massive retaliation if it does.
“We are now in a different story,” said Yoel Guzansky, a former senior security official who oversaw Iran strategy at Israel's National Security Council. “In Israel, there is a consensus among the military, defense experts, analysts, and politicians that Israel should respond with force to any Iranian attack.”
For many Israelis, they now have little to lose. Iran's efforts to attack the urban sprawl around Tel Aviv mark a threshold that Iran has never breached before, even during a previous missile attack in April that targeted an air base but not civilian areas. Exceeded.
Israel's critics often see it as the main instigator of unrest in the Middle East. However, most Israelis consider themselves victims of constant attacks from Iranian proxies, especially Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and do not do enough to protect themselves. I feel like I'm not making the best effort. As a result, there are growing calls within Israel to hold Iran fully responsible for attacks on its allies, even at the risk of an explosive response.
“Many in Israel see this as an opportunity to inflict further pain on Iran,” said Guzansky, now a research fellow at the National Security Institute, an Israeli research group. “To stop it.”
Six Israeli officials and a senior U.S. official said Israel had not yet decided specifically how to respond and that the extent of Israel's response would be influenced by the level of practical and rhetorical support provided by the United States. He said that it would be. US forces helped Israel shoot down incoming missiles from both Iranian attacks.
Officials said the exact nature of the response may not become clear until after Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year holiday, which continues until sundown on Friday. All officials requested anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.
In talks with the Israeli government, the White House is expected to point out that Tuesday's Iranian missile attack caused relatively little damage and urge Israel to exercise restraint, U.S. officials said. These petitions are expected to have little impact, the official added.
However, Israel's counterattack is expected to be much stronger than the response to Iran's first ballistic missile launch in April. At that time, Israel carried out limited attacks on Iranian air defense batteries, but did not officially acknowledge involvement in the attacks.
A senior U.S. official said Israeli officials told the U.S. that they believed the April response was too little and too restrained. Israeli leaders feel they made a mistake in heeding the then-White House's call for a cautious retaliatory strike, the official said.
This time, Israel could target oil producing areas and military bases, officials said. Damaging the refinery would not only harm Iran's already fragile economy, but could also throw global oil markets into turmoil a month before the U.S. presidential election.
Four Israeli officials say that, despite media speculation, Israel does not currently plan to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, even though it views Iran's efforts to develop a nuclear weapons program as an existential threat. He says he hasn't.
Nuclear facilities, many of which are located deep underground, would be difficult to target without U.S. support. President Biden said Wednesday that he does not support an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Still, Israel's reaction “should be felt everywhere. It should be felt by Iran. It should be a blow to Iran,” Guzansky urged. “For that reason, we cannot attack the radar station again.”
The Israeli public was deeply shaken by the October 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel and its aftermath. This was an attack on the very idea of Israel as a haven for Jews.
Sima Shine, a former intelligence official who helped guide Israel's Iran strategy, said many people now have a greater tolerance for short-term risks in order to achieve long-term security. Shine said more Israelis want the government to do “something we didn't do in the past because we can't afford to be under constant attack from all sides.”
“This is part of the miscalculation of all the enemies around us,” Shine said. “They don't understand what October 7th did to the people of Israel, to the people of Israel who are willing to take more risks.”
To Israelis, too, Iran now appears more vulnerable than it has in years. If Israel launches a more forceful attack on Tehran, Iran will no longer be able to take control of Lebanon, after Israel has killed most of Hezbollah's leadership and destroyed much of the group's missile stockpile in recent weeks. They cannot rely on meaningful support from their agents.
“Iran is much weaker than it was before,” said Guzansky, the former official. “Israel is freer to do more.”
A significant number of missiles have failed on launch or before reaching Israeli airspace, according to senior U.S. officials, further exposing vulnerabilities in Iran's vaunted ballistic missile arsenal first exposed in the April attacks, and increasing failure rates. was even higher.
With Israel's second successful defense against advanced ballistic missiles and Hezbollah's weakening, Israel is likely to choose a more aggressive response than it did in April, a senior US official said.
Recent comments by Israeli leaders give a sense of their growing ambition and confidence. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke directly to the Iranian people in a statement earlier this week, indicating support for regime change in Tehran.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also struck a particularly defiant tone after Tuesday night's attack. “Tonight, Iran made a big mistake, and it will definitely pay the price,” he said. “Israel has momentum and the 'axis of evil' is retreating. We will do whatever it takes to continue this trend.”
But for some experts, Israelis risk underestimating Iran's resilience and overestimating its own ability to cause significant damage.
“Israel's approach for more than 75 years has always been to attack the enemy harder than it is attacked itself,” said Andreas Krieg, a war expert at King's College in London. . “But that doesn't work with a regime like Iran. I don't think you can stop them.”
As a result, Israel may be able to inflict short-term damage but not long-term change, he said.
“We don't see a strategy yet,” Krieg said. “That's what I'm trying to hear from the Israelis: What is the strategy to undermine the regime?”