President Recept Tayp Erdogan entered this year in the face of a largely unprecedented knot of political issues in his 20 years at Türkiye's summit.
Voters were angry about the sustained high inflation. His political party's popularity had subsided. And his enemies were coalescing around Iklem Imamogul mayor Istanbul, who revealed he was bombarding for the presidency.
Then on Wednesday, dozens of police officers arrested him at his home for charges of corruption and terrorism, just four days before the mayor was designated as a political opposition presidential candidate.
Erdogan's enemy sees the arrest as a trick to cancel Imamoguru's presidential campaign before he begins. Not only will Turkey become the next president, analysts, opposition leaders and foreign officials who are at stake, but Turkey, one of the world's largest economy and one of the US allies of NATO, could still be considered democratic.
“Turkey has never been a complete democracy, but arresting presidential candidates takes this imperfection to another level,” said Arife Kose, a doctoral candidate studying Turkish politics at the University of East Anglia in the UK. Using state authority to seize competitive elections, she said, “It means it's approaching a total authoritarian country.”
Erdogan has dominated Turkish politics since 2003, but initially served as prime minister since 2014. Meanwhile, he oversaw incredible economic growth and led the ruling justice and the development party to victory in the polls.
However, his critics say over the past decade he has cemented his control by eroding Turkish democracy, seizing the state's bureaucracy of loyalty, employing news media to limit negative coverage to news media, and cultivating state prosecutors and judges to legally punish them.
Still, most experts do not consider Turkey to be a complete dictatorship, as many civil liberties remain and the opposition parties challenge the election.
The current question, according to analysts, is whether Turkey will continue to be a combination of democracy and dictatorship, or will it shift towards the latter?
The ban on Imamogul from the presidential race would put Turkey in federations with countries such as Russia, Belarus and Azerbaijan, but elections will happen but make little difference, Hasan Sinal, a professor of criminal law at Altinbas University in Istanbul, has also defended another election in Istanbul, which has been accused of being involved in terrorism.
“They have elections, but they are what they call elections because the president himself designs the opposition and decides who will oppose him,” he said.
Erdogan on Thursday rejected a call for protest as a “theater” to protest against the mayor's arrest.
“The opposition will never respond to allegations brought about by the judiciary,” he said. “Instead, they limit the issue to political slogans, relying on simple ways to trigger their bases and deceive the public.”
The political turmoil came when Turkey realized he was in a good position to benefit from recent global events. The rebel groups it supported lead the new Syrian government. The Trump administration has shown little interest in whether foreign partners follow democratic standards. And concerns about the US halting support for Ukraine in the war with Russia have urged European leaders to seek stronger defence ties with Turkey.
Those benefits could blunt foreign criticism of Erdogan's governance, analysts said. While US officials have spoken little about Imamogul's arrest, some European leaders have expressed concern.
German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz on Thursday called the arrest a “very, very bad sign” of relations between Türkiye and the European Union.
“We can ask for this to be finished soon, and we can ask for the opposition and government to compete with each other.
Erdogan's current second president term will end in 2028. The Constitution only allows two terms, but if Congress calls for an early election, he can legally execute it again. This could lead to 71-year-old Erdogan being voted for Imamogul (54).
The mayor's arrest followed a series of recent government moves against perceived critics.
Since January, agents representing famous journalists and famous actors have been arrested in connection with anti-government protests that had been suppressed and criminalised by the state more than a decade ago.
Last month, two high-ranking officials from the prominent business association criticized the government's economic programs, prosecution of prominent figures and inadequate compliance with the rule of law. State prosecutors charged them with accusations of spreading false information and recommended a sentence of up to five and a half years.
Since October, authorities have removed three Istanbul district mayors on charges of corruption and terrorism. One was replaced by government appointees.
Even very well-known figures are violating the government. The astrologer was detained last month and accused of shaming Mr. Erdogan and another senior politician. The Ministry of Trade has actively reviewed Imamoguru's city government grants restaurants and looked into food bloggers who have confirmed whether he was paid to do so.
Imamoguru became mayor in 2019 with an upset victory. The government cited the misconduct and dumped the results, but when it was redoed, Imamoguru won again with a bigger margin. He was re-elected last year, beating a candidate backed by Erdogan.
During his time as mayor, the government launched Imamoguru's 42 administrations and 51 judicial investigations, his aides said. In one case, he is accused of corruption during his previous job as district mayor. He was convicted of another insulting civil servant by calling a judge who overturned his first victory in 2019's “Fool.” He sued the verdict.
Before this week's arrest, his alma mater, Istanbul University, announced that he had invalidated his diploma in 1990, citing inappropriate procedures in his transfer from a Turkish-controlled university in North Cyprus.
Despite these obstacles, Imamogul's popularity remains high and threatens him to Erdogan, said Burk Esen, an associate professor of political science at Savansi University in Istanbul.
“He made it clear to Erdogan that the train is moving, it's coming in his direction and he can't stop it by normal means,” Esen said. As a result, Erdogan “goes for the jugular vein.”
Prosecutors accused Imamoguru of leading criminal organizations and overseeing bribery, bidding and other crimes at city hall. He is accused of supporting terrorism through political coordination with Prokurd groups.
Turkish opponents vowed to advance the primary on Sunday, naming the presidential candidate and calling for protests against detention.
The government has banned public demonstrations in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, closed main streets and metro stations, and limited access to the social media platforms activists use to organize. It called on people to trust legal proceedings and argued that the court was independent.
“Relating a judicial investigation or case with the president is, to say the least, an act of boldness and irresponsibility,” Justice Minister Irmaz Tance told reporters Wednesday, calling the separation of power “a basic principle.”
“The judiciary doesn't take orders from anyone,” he said.
