Wholesale egg prices have fallen sharply since the beginning of March after months of soaring, but it may take weeks for grocery shoppers to see the decline.
The prices of wholesale eggs, which retailers pay to source eggs, fell from a peak of over $8 at the end of February to the national average of dozens of big white eggs below, according to agricultural sector data released last week.
But eggs usually have a shelf life of four weeks, so it could be the end of March before retail prices drop, said Jeremy Hopearl, an associate professor of economics at Arkansas Central University. Some stores may not be able to lower prices until they sell out current stock, he added.
The economists said the decline in wholesale prices, which still exceed the long-term average, is very likely to be driven by a combination of increased supply and producer pricing, with bird flu under control. The Agriculture Bureau notes that there have been no significant outbreaks of avian flu in March so far, and economists say new outbreaks can push prices up again. The virus has been forced to ull tens of millions of chickens to egg producers since the latter half of last year.
Egg retail prices rose 10.4% from the previous month in February, continuing to rise for several months, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released last week.
The economist pointed out that prices may not be dropping evenly across the country. Areas with competing grocery stores may see egg prices fall faster, Holpedor said, but that those controlled by a single chain may not – with the power to keep prices in place for longer. Retail prices may also depend on the strategy of the grocery chain, with some choosing to lower prices and seduce customers into the store.
“They can fully pass on the savings of wholesale prices to us,” said David Anderson, professor of economics and business at Center University in Danville, Kentucky.
President Trump, who lowered grocery prices, is a key part of his campaign, jumping on the trend in wholesale prices, citing a decline in speeches at the Justice Department last week. At the same time, his sweeping tariffs have raised concerns about rising prices for many products, including grocery staples.
The prices of eggs and other food items have created uncertainty during the Biden administration and have become the highest interest among voters ahead of the 2024 election. The 2022 avian flu outbreak and the increase in fuel, feed and packaging costs associated with the coronavirus pandemic have pushed the prices of wholesale eggs to nearly $5 per dozen at their peak. The surge in egg prices was smaller than the recent surge, but it was putting pressure on households as it came when the overall inflation was higher.
Egg producers have denounced the spread of avian flu for a tighter supply. United Egg Producer, the industry association, said that in 2024, the virus accelerated, lost more than 40 million egg-selling chickens in 2024.
Anderson said the avian flu hit supply “in a dramatic way.” But at the same time, he added, “the industry may be seeing the bird flu epidemic as the cover of additional price increases that are not necessarily needed.”
“Part of that is that they are really dealing with the crisis,” he said. “Part of that is, “Does there be covers to keep prices artificially high?”
The Department of Justice is in the early stages of an antitrust investigation to investigate whether major egg producers share information about pricing and supply that contribute to price spikes. Some lawmakers and advocacy groups have previously asked federal regulators to investigate industry pricing practices.
