Can Dave Aranda bounce back from Baylor's last-minute collapse against Colorado?

Nearly three years ago, Baylor's defense turned into a brick wall in a battle for a conference title.

In the final minute of the 2021 Big 12 Championship Game, Oklahoma State had four tries to gain two yards and score a game-winning touchdown. The Bears only allowed 1 3/4 attempts, and Baylor won the Big 12 crown in coach Dave Aranda's second year.

On Saturday night in Colorado, Baylor needed another game-clinching stop in the final minute, but the stakes were lower (the team's Big 12 opener) and the margins were much higher. The defense was 45 yards, and the Buffaloes had just two seconds to cover. But in a scene reminiscent of one created by Kordell Stewart and Michael Westbrook 30 years ago, Shedul Sanders and LaJontae Wester delivered a miraculous Hail Mary to send the game into overtime, where the Buffaloes ultimately won, 38-31.

The two outcomes, separated by 33 months, are emblematic of how far Baylor has fallen from its peak under Aranda, who is now 25-27.

“I've never seen anything like that at the end of regulation,” Aranda told reporters.

This may have been an ad-hoc post-game hyperbole, but it's fair to assume the Bears executed their defensive strategy so poorly that Aranda never got to see a game-winning Hail Mary.

Quarterback Sawyer Robertson and the Baylor Bears fell to 2-2 after a loss to Colorado on Saturday. (Christopher Hanewinkel / Imag Images)

Once the highest-paid assistant coach in college football and celebrated for his defensive genius, Aranda has struggled this season in his fifth season as a first-time head coach, and the Bears' blowout loss to Colorado could be a turning point. Can he bounce back?

The team is 11-18 since the 2021 season when Baylor went 12-2 with a Big 12 title and Sugar Bowl win. Offensive and defensive staffs have been replaced, which has been a theme during Aranda's tenure.

After the team appeared to hit rock bottom at 3-9 last year, Aranda vowed to make further changes, focusing on the transfer portal, putting more effort into name, image and likeness compensation and establishing himself as the defensive play-caller for the first time since taking over as LSU's defensive coordinator in 2019.

The first three weeks of the season have been promising, with the Bears showing the sharpness they lacked last year, more talent and Aranda's increased involvement on defense working well.

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There were some bright spots in the Colorado game. Sanders was sacked eight times and faced increased pressures, some of which came from Texas Tech transfer Steve Linton. There were also some great offensive plays from quarterback Sawyer Robertson and receivers Monaray Baldwin and Hal Pressley. The team as a whole showed a talent that wasn't seen much a year ago.

But Saturday's loss to Baylor was an embarrassment, as the Bears blew a 24-10 lead and squandered multiple chances to end the game in regulation.

After consecutive sacks on Sanders forced a punt on fourth down and 31 yards, Baylor trailed 31-24 with 3:58 left and had a chance to cut the deficit to two at the Colorado 26. The Bears ran three times, and Isaiah Hankins' 46-yard field goal attempt with 2:16 left went wide right.

On Colorado's final drive of the fourth quarter, Baylor trailed the Buffaloes and faced a second-down-and-24 situation at their own 31 with 55 seconds left, but the Bears gave up all of those yards on the next three plays to keep the Buffaloes alive.

And before Wester's tying catch, Colorado nearly missed out on the win on the previous play when receiver Will Shepard got behind Baylor cornerback Kayden Jenkins and then dropped a pass from Sanders at the 2-yard mark.

On Baylor's final defensive play, which Aranda called the “Victory Cigar,” the Bears pressured Sanders, forcing him out of the pocket to his left before he fired a bomb pass to Wester. Aranda detailed the misallocation of the pressure, calling it “no excuse” given that Baylor had taken a timeout before the play to set up defense.

“I take full responsibility for that,” he said. “I have to be able to lead better.”

The Baylor fans all nodded in agreement. It may have been the Bears' most painful loss since September 11, 1999. That night, Baylor led UNLV 24-21 with the ball with 20 seconds left and the Rebels running out of timeouts. Instead of taking a knee, the Bears ran the ball and fumbled it. UNLV returned it for a 100-yard touchdown and won the game 27-24.

Instead of going home with positive momentum at 3-1, the Baylor team will have to bounce back from an emotional blow in a highly competitive conference where there is no room for error.

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If Saturday's loss is the start of a losing streak, it will be the third year in a row that Baylor fans will be disappointed. The schedule is getting tougher from here on out. This weekend, Baylor will host No. 22 BYU, fresh off a thumping of Kansas State, at home. After that, they will play consecutive away games against No. 18 Iowa State and Texas Tech before closing out October at home against No. 20 Oklahoma State.

If the Bears don't bounce back soon, Aranda's status could be in jeopardy heading into November. Baylor athletic director Mack Rose hasn't publicly dictated how many wins Aranda needs to get through this season, but a bowl game appearance is a minimum expectation. That became even more difficult after Saturday's wasted win at Folsom Field.

The season is far from over. Baylor (2-2) is only a third of the way through its schedule, and if the Bears can bounce back quickly with a win against the Cougars, it would go a long way to helping them shake off Saturday's nightmare ending. This year's Big 12 promises to be unruly, with three of the top four teams in the league's preseason poll losing their conference openers.

But the urgency to change things is crucial. The 2021 Big 12 championship season is an anomaly in the Aranda era. Baylor has had losing seasons the other three years, going a combined 13-25 in all years except 2021. The last time Baylor had back-to-back winning seasons was the final two years of the Matt Rhule era (2018 and 2019).

The Baylor coaching staff wants Aranda to succeed. He's well-liked on campus because he comes across as thoughtful and genuine. He doesn't have the hot-headed temperament that is so common among football coaches. Being a nice guy buys you time in college coaching, and it's certainly helped Aranda succeed this year, despite his declining grades.

Whether he can win again will depend on how Baylor responds to its recent missteps — Saturday's result won't be the deciding factor — but the Bears' losses will certainly be noticeable if there's any uncertainty about Rhodes' future when he makes his decision at season's end.

After Saturday's loss, Aranda said the Bears would buckle down and hang in there, calling the loss a “huge wake-up call.”

“I know we can fight back,” he said. “I know this team, and I know this will make us even stronger.”

If they are going to win another trophy under Aranda, that's what they should do.

(Top photo: Andrew Webbers/Getty Images)