NATO leaders will gather in Washington starting Tuesday to celebrate the alliance's 75th anniversary of strength while confronting deep uncertainty about its future.
In recent years, Russia's aggression in Ukraine has given NATO, which was founded after World War II to protect Europe from the Soviet Union, a renewed sense of purpose. But it also faces serious threats, including from right-wing skeptics gaining power in countries such as Germany and France.
And the possibility of Donald J. Trump returning to the White House, who has mocked NATO and even hinted at withdrawing the United States from the alliance, has caused alarm among NATO member states.
Here's what to watch out for at NATO's three-day meeting in Washington this week.
Glaring at Putin
Perhaps the summit's most important goal is to send a signal of unity and strength to Moscow.
Officials say Russian President Vladimir V. Putin hopes that efforts to counter NATO aggression will weaken, which would allow him to further occupy Ukraine and perhaps even turn his attention to other countries.
As such, a central theme of the summit will be not only demonstrating NATO's long-term commitment to Ukraine, but also its own perseverance.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said last week that a “primary objective” of the summit was to demonstrate the value of European collective defense spending. He noted that recent security agreements between dozens of NATO allies and Ukraine would help “say to President Vladimir Putin that you can't ambush Ukraine, and you can't ambush all of Ukraine's partners.”
But NATO leaders remain cautious about admitting Ukraine into the alliance, a promise they first made to Kiev in 2008. Most member states say that is not possible as long as Ukraine is at war with Russia.
One uncertainty this week is the possibility that Putin will hatch a scheme to destabilize the party.
“Biden administration officials are concerned that Russian President Putin is preparing more surprises regarding Ukraine to disrupt and steal attention from NATO's 75th anniversary summit in Washington,” Frederick Kemp, president of the Atlantic Council, wrote last month.
Russian Sabotage
U.S. and allied officials say Russian military intelligence launched a covert sabotage campaign across Europe this year, setting fire to warehouses and other facilities linked to supply operations to Ukraine.
While most of the attacks had the potential to slow down supplies to Ukraine, some were more bizarre: One target was an IKEA in Lithuania.
NATO took the attack seriously, issuing warnings and sending senior US intelligence officials to brief ambassadors.
The Kremlin has stepped up its threats as Ukraine uses a series of new weapons to attack Russia and Russian military facilities in the occupied Crimea. After an attack on Crimea using U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles, the Kremlin warned that any Russian deaths “will have consequences.”
In response, the U.S. military has increased the alert level at its bases across Europe.
The big question for NATO leaders is whether Putin is prepared to expand the war beyond Ukraine's borders — something Western intelligence agencies don't think he would — but NATO is likely to warn of responses if he continues or expands his covert attacks on Europe.
Ukraine's arms wish list
At the top of Ukraine's arms wish list are two well-known requests: more air defense systems and more air defense missiles.
The Biden administration last week announced a $2.3 billion military aid package for Ukraine, with about $150 million worth of munitions, including air defense interceptor missiles, artillery and mortar rounds, and anti-tank weapons, being drawn from the Pentagon's stockpile and sent immediately to Ukraine.
Of the remainder, the Pentagon is buying $2.2 billion worth of Patriot and other air defense missiles from defense contractors to deliver to Ukraine in the coming months. The Biden administration said last month that it plans to speed up the delivery of those Patriot interceptors to Ukraine by delaying shipments of certain weapons to other countries.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that at least seven Patriot batteries are absolutely necessary, and President Biden has pledged to deliver five Western air defense systems to Ukraine soon.
Aside from manpower, Ukraine's biggest battlefield needs remain air defenses to protect the front lines and critical infrastructure, including the country's power grid.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who recently visited the battlefield, said Ukraine's air defense forces are struggling to cope with the flood of Russian drones flying behind Ukraine's front lines.
Ukraine is also dealing with mass attacks by increasingly accurate Russian glide bombs, he said.
“The proliferation of Russian drones capable of flying behind Ukraine's front lines is one of the most significant issues,” Kofman said, “but the most pressing issues are the lack of air defense systems to protect infrastructure and the need to address shortfalls in Ukraine's power grid ahead of winter.”
Patriots and Hawks
Ukraine's urgent need for air defense weapons was underscored by a wave of Russian missile attacks on Monday that hit 20 cities and damaged a children's hospital in Kiev.
One of the topics on the agenda at the summit will be how many countries could send air defense weapons to protect the skies over Ukraine.
The United States will send more missiles for its most advanced Patriot system, as well as a U.S. system called Hawk (Homing All-the-Way Killer), long retired from the Pentagon but still in use by several allied nations.
“The HAWK system was developed by Raytheon in the 1950s and first deployed by the Army in 1959,” Mark Romanich, a retired U.S. Army air defense officer, said in an interview. “The United States has never fired a HAWK missile at an enemy target, but other nations' militaries have done so with considerable success.”
Romanich commanded a HAWK unit during his active duty and wrote a book about the weapon in 2022.
He said the Hawk was designed to shoot down low-altitude Soviet fighter jets flying at twice the speed of sound, and could also shoot down the much slower drones Russia is using in Ukraine.
The missiles have a range of about 28 miles, according to the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
In October 2022, Spain announced it would provide Ukraine with four HAWK launchers. Less than a month later, the Pentagon announced it would provide the missiles for those launchers and upgrade more missiles from the stockpile for later shipment.
The Pentagon has announced that it will send two more HAWK launchers to Ukraine in February 2023, followed by more launchers and missiles in June of the same year. Just last month, the Pentagon announced two more shipments of HAWK missiles.
At the same time, the U.S. military announced a large new purchase of state-of-the-art Patriot missiles, many of which were to be sent to Ukraine.
Which Zelensky?
Last year, before flying to Vilnius, Lithuania, for a NATO summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky fired off a series of angry social media posts, outraged that allies were discussing an invitation to Ukraine rather than a timetable for membership.
The post said the lack of a deadline would allow Russia to “continue its terrorism.” White House officials complained at the time that it made Zelenskiy look ungrateful and unseemly given that Western countries had spent billions of dollars on defense aid.
Diplomats now acknowledge that NATO offered Zelensky a “list of words” rather than a strengthened statement about joining the alliance, so now the U.S. and others are seeking a clear statement about Ukraine's future membership.
There has also been active diplomatic efforts to meet Zelenskiy's expectations ahead of the summit. NATO allies who visited Kiev have reinforced their commitments to provide Ukraine with more weapons, improved training and security guarantees. The message is that while NATO membership will come eventually, for now there is no other priority for NATO than supporting Kiev.
Will this diplomatic whirlwind succeed in eliciting gratitude from Mr. Zelenskiy? Diplomats acknowledge there is no way to know. Mr. Zelenskiy is one of the world's leading communicators, and only he will decide what message he sends to allies in Washington this week.
2024 US Presidential Election
The summit comes amid uncertainty about whether Mr. Biden will remain the Democratic presidential nominee and the possibility that Donald J. Trump may return to the White House.
Trump has called NATO “obsolete” and threatened to withdraw from the alliance, but some European officials privately say they are unlikely to follow through on those threats if elected. Trump has long complained that NATO allies do not spend enough on their collective defense, which is one reason NATO has touted increased spending by its members in recent years.
Trump has also promised rapid peace talks between Russia and Ukraine if elected, but has offered few details about his plans, including one that would likely force Ukraine to give up territory and its NATO ambitions.
But the spotlight will be on Biden at the summit, where he will be closely scrutinized for any new signs of declining health or mental health. If Biden does not remain the Democratic nominee, another Democratic candidate is unlikely to seek major changes to U.S. support for NATO or Ukraine.
