Until late Thursday, it was thought that Prime Minister Mark Carney might end the current election week without suspending his campaign due to President Trump's trade attacks in Canada.
But instead of shaking hands and making an announcement, he returned to Ottawa on Friday to chair a special meeting of the Cabinet Committee addressing US relations.
The meeting, which produced almost new public information, followed by another week of turmoil. Canada has enacted a retaliatory 25% mandate against cars and trucks made in the United States.
And the president is kind of like that, as he planned to add an extra fee to Canada when Trump announced that he had wiped out mutual obligations for most of the world earlier this week after signs from the White House. He has suspended his most extreme global tariffs. This sent the stock market downwards and dropped additional taxes on Canada.
But here is the catch. The US not only imposes 25% tariffs on Canadian cars, steel and aluminum, but also places less North American content than is required by trade agreements between Canada, the US and Mexico. Oil, gas, and some minerals in Canada are still subject to 10% tariffs. And while announcing the suspension in most countries, Trump set a minimum tariff on goods from China, the US's third-largest trading partner, after Mexico and Canada.
The ultimate result is that US tariffs are on average about 10 times higher before Trump returns to the White House.
For Canada, Carney described the situation as “the best of a series of bad deals.”
[Read: From ‘Be Cool!’ to ‘Getting Yippy’: Inside Trump’s Reversal on Tariffs]
There are already victims. Stellantis has halted production of Chrysler minivans and avoided muscle cars in Windsor, Ontario, idling about 3,200 of its employees for two weeks. The Canadian Auto Parts Manufacturers Association estimates that 10,000 to 12,000 workers are closed at factories with members in Canada and the US, leaving them off work.
On Friday, General Motors said it would pause work at its Ingersol, Ontario factory until October, with the electric van and battery assembly going into insufficient. A spokesperson said the idling of the factory, which has around 1,200 workers, had previously been fired by 700 people, but it was not related to customs duties and the company was committed to both the electric van and the factory. Unifor, a labor union, has denounced Trump's rewind for measures aimed at moving the US to electric vehicles.
Neither Mr. Carney nor anyone else in the government has provided details on how tariff money will be used. One expert I spoke to said that the sudden changes created by Trump made it difficult to grasp the future of Canadian industry.
[Read: Canada Vows to Use Billions From Trade Retaliation to Aid Workers and Businesses
[Read: Trump’s Tariffs Are Already Reducing Car Imports and Idling Factories]
In his profile, onimitsu onishi sees how conservative leader Pierre Polyable went on to fight against the liberals who have been revived due to the Trump-induced crisis, taking a 25% point lead in the polls as he becomes the next prime minister.
“However, Poilierbre's campaign has spoken relatively little about Trump and continues to focus on attacking liberals,” Noli wrote. “A link that has been blamed by analysts, many voters have linked Polyeve to Trump.”
Nori also traveled to a large gathering held near Edmonton. There they discovered that the “common sense” message of conservative leaders to corrupt elites resonates most in Alberta.
[Read: The Canadian Political Brawler Who Had a 25-Point Lead and a Problem: Trump]
[Read: Outside His Political Base, a Canadian’s Trumpian Pitch Is a Harder Sell]
For Poilierbre and Carney, the final test on the campaign (which will end with the April 28th vote) will take place next week with discussions in French and English.
Trans Canada
Ian Austin Ottawa-based Times' report on Canada. He covers politics, culture and the people of Canada and has reported on the country for 20 years. He can reach with austen@nytimes.com.
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