Analysts say the ceasefire between Gaza and Lebanon is likely to remain in place for now, although it was tested to its limits over the weekend. That's because both sides want to avoid full-scale combat for at least a few weeks.
In southern Lebanon, Israeli forces remained in positions past Sunday's withdrawal deadline, as Israel claims Hezbollah has broken its own promise to withdraw from the area. In Gaza, Hamas failed on Saturday to release a female hostage that Israel had hoped to release, prompting Israel to delay the agreed return of displaced Palestinians to their homelands in northern Gaza.
But analysts said that even as each side accused the other of breaking the agreement, both Israel and its opponents had reason to remain flexible and temporarily overlook the other's violations.
Hezbollah is angry at Israel for keeping troops in southern Lebanon, but if it resumes rocket attacks on Israeli cities it risks a devastating Israeli counterattack. Hamas wants to maintain power in Gaza and risks losing power if war resumes. And Israel needs to maintain current arrangements in Gaza long enough to free at least another 24 hostages. Israeli leaders also appear keen to appease President Trump, who campaigned on a promise to maintain peace in the Middle East.
Israel and Hamas, who want to extend the Gaza ceasefire, appeared to have resolved the weekend crisis near midnight Sunday. The Qatari government, which acts as a mediator between the two sides, announced that the female hostage, Albel Yehud, will be released this week, and that the other two will be released ahead of schedule. In response, Israel announced on Monday morning that it would allow displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza.
Regarding Lebanon, there was no immediate comment from Israel or Hezbollah, but the White House announced it would extend the ceasefire in Lebanon until February 18. The Lebanese Prime Minister's Office granted the extension.
“They'll get through the next few weeks, but beyond that, no one can predict,” said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. negotiator on Middle East peace talks.
“These are not agreements between the United States and Switzerland. These are agreements that rely on each side giving the other some discretion and room for maneuver,” he added. “That's their weakness, but also their strength.”
Despite Israeli forces shooting and killing people in both Lebanon and Gaza as they tried to return to areas still under Israeli control, the wriggle room finally helped a ceasefire between the two countries survive the weekend. was completed.
The Lebanese Ministry of Health said 22 people were killed in Israeli fire in southern Lebanon, and the Palestinian Authority News Agency said one person was killed in the Gaza Strip as large crowds gathered near Israeli forces demanding their return. was reported to have died.
But by Monday morning, the standoff in Gaza appeared to be easing. In Lebanon, Hezbollah issued a statement praising residents attempting to return and calling on foreign powers to force Israel to leave. However, Hezbollah did not resume rocket attacks.
Analysts say Hezbollah is unlikely to suffer further losses as its leadership falls and its benefactor Iran weakens. The ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a Hezbollah ally, by rebel forces in December also cut off the group's main arms supply route through Syria.
Hanin Ghaddar, a Lebanese analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a diplomatic research group, said Hezbollah commanders “still have rockets and guns and could do something.”
“But it would be suicidal for them to do this, because they believe that any attack by Hezbollah in Israel will result in Israel seizing the opportunity to counterattack with all its might and annihilate what is left of them. Because we know,” Ms. Ghaddar added.
Hezbollah is also probably wary of losing support among its Shiite Muslim base, especially in next year's parliamentary elections, Ghaddar said. Lebanon's Shiite community paid the highest price for Hezbollah's decision to go to war with Israel in October 2023 in solidarity with its ally Hamas. Shia villages and towns in southern Lebanon bore the brunt of subsequent Israeli air operations and ground invasions.
“If Shiites don't vote for them, this is the end of Hezbollah,” said Ms. Ghaddar, author of a book about Hezbollah's ties to its strongholds. “They can't really do anything unless they know 100 percent that the Shiite community supports them.”
The Gaza ceasefire is considered the weakest of the two ceasefire agreements, as Hezbollah is unlikely to resume fighting.
But the biggest stress test is not expected until early March, when Hamas and Israel must decide whether to extend the agreement beyond the initial 42-day ceasefire period.
For now, Israel has indicated it wants to maintain a ceasefire to keep hostage releases flowing. But an extension would require both sides to agree to a permanent end to the war, a bridge Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears reluctant to cross. Mr. Netanyahu's coalition relies on far-right lawmakers who want permanent Israeli control of Gaza, and could collapse if the war ends with Hamas still in power.
Some flexibility is allowed in the terms and conditions. The ceasefire can last beyond 42 days, as long as both sides continue to negotiate whether to make the agreement permanent.
But Israeli officials say they have no intention of remaining locked into endless fruitless negotiations, especially if Hamas stops releasing the hostages. And Hamas is unlikely to continue with hostage releases, a key bargaining chip, absent an Israeli promise to permanently cease hostilities.
“Hamas wants a ceasefire, but not at all costs,” said Muhaimar Abusada, a Palestinian political scientist from Gaza. “They want a ceasefire to end the war.”
Much may depend on Trump's willingness to placate Mr. Netanyahu toward a more permanent ceasefire. Trump's personal message to the Israeli prime minister was crucial in laying the groundwork, but it remains to be seen whether the US president will maintain his position beyond a few weeks.
“If Prime Minister Netanyahu succeeds in persuading President Trump of the need to restart the war, then the war will probably resume,” Abusada said. “If President Trump keeps his promise that he doesn't want any war and wants more peace, whether it's in Gaza or Ukraine or around the world, that's another thing.”
