The WNBA is already well into the second half of the season and will be sprinting all the way to the end, with the regular season wrapping up in exactly one month, with each team playing 12-14 games in the final stretch.
As players reacclimate after the Olympic break and make the final push towards the postseason, here are the teams I predict will make the playoffs and a to-do list for each team to focus on in order to be in the best position possible come playoff time.
Playoff Qualifiers
1. New York Liberty
Stay on the path
The Liberty reminds me of the Aces at this time last season. New York is the best team in the league and a few bad games or a bad week isn't going to change that, just like Vegas' August slump didn't stop the Aces from winning back-to-back championships. It will be interesting to see if the Liberty tries to match the Aces' record of 34 wins in a season last year. New York could tie the all-time winning percentage if they keep winning. The Houston Comets had a 90% win rate in 1998, but it could be a Pyrrhic victory if the Liberty tires out and doesn't finish the season with a ring. Just ask the 2016 Golden State Warriors.
The bag is deep and the Ribs finished their West Coast tour in the best possible way 💪 #Light up pic.twitter.com/raBUvOswFb
— New York Liberty (@nyliberty) August 18, 2024
2. Minnesota Lynx
Add a little variation
The Lynx have plenty of jump shooters, but they rank last in points in the paint and free throw percentage, so they don't put much pressure on the ring. So even though their four rotation players (Kayla McBride, Alanna Smith, Bridget Carlton, Cecilia Zandarashini) shoot over 40% from the field, they rely too much on 3-pointers in long series. If they shoot less than 35.5% from 3-point range (league average is 33.8%), they're 5-5. It's unclear how the Lynx will generate a consistent offense if their defense is focused on taking away the 3-point line (Liberty, in particular, seems well-suited to switch everything against them).
3. The Connecticut Sun
Diversify your attacks
The Suns are essentially the opposite of the Lynx on offense. They know what their big three of Alyssa Thomas, Bri Jones and DeWanna Bonner are like. But the trio hasn’t been able to get Connecticut out of trouble in the postseason. So the rest of the regular season should be scouting for the Suns. They need to figure out which perimeter player or which perimeter action can give them an advantage when the defense closes in on their frontcourt. Connecticut leans on the two-player action of newly acquired Marlena Mabry and Thomas, but the Suns’ spacing still wasn’t enough against the Atlanta Dream defense that gets in the paint. Connecticut needs to create more options in the half court and increase their 3-point shot attempt percentage. Currently, 21.2% of the Suns’ points come from outside the 3-point line, which isn’t enough against high-powered offensive teams like the Aces and Liberty.
4. Las Vegas Aces
Give the stars a rest
The Aces have the skeleton of last year's title-winning team, but they just haven't been able to build on that formula consistently. It's hard to believe that team isn't there yet, especially after the stellar performances from A'ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young at the Paris Olympics. The problem is, the Aces have a big mountain to climb in the standings, players have endured long hours this year, and the extra burden of multiple investigations into the organization. If they maintained the same time load, they might not have the stamina to make it through the entire playoffs. As a result, as Becky Hammon said, even though it would be anathema to their stars, AthleticYoung, who competed on “The Women's Basketball Show” earlier this year, will likely have to participate in some load management. Young returned from Paris looking exhausted, and she is arguably the second most important player in Las Vegas. Even if it hurts her in the standings, the Aces have to think long term.
We secured the W 📽️📊
Wilson: 34 PTS / 13 REB / 5 STL / 2 BLK / 60% FG
Plum: 18 points / 4 3PM / 46% FG
Hayes: 11 PTS / 3 REB / 50% FG
Young: 10 PTS / 4 REB / 4 AST / 2 STL / 2 3PM#AllInLV pic.twitter.com/qA5z1t19Qs— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) August 19, 2024
5. Seattle Storm
Help Jewel Lloyd out of her slump
The Storm's three-point shooting has been awful in 2024, hitting a league-worst 29.3% from long range. Seattle isn't overflowing with sharpshooters, but a 26% long-range shooting percentage for a player attempting over a quarter of the team's three-pointers is problematic. The additions of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike were supposed to ease the offensive burden and allow Jewell Loyd to shoot better, but that hasn't happened. With Loyd in good form and still shooting over 87% from the free throw line, it seems like it's only a matter of time before things turn around, but the Storm's offense won't survive without Loyd's efficiency.
6. Indiana Fever
Make the defense more disciplined
The Fever have some concerns defensively, which is to be expected for a team with the second-lowest defensive rating. Many of these issues have been mitigated by their ferocious offense in recent games, but the main issue is how often they send opponents to the free throw line. If Indiana forces more turnovers, it will be easier to allow opponents to make a high free throw percentage, since those free throws will just fall victim to Indiana's offense. However, the Fever are last in opponent turnover percentage and 11th in defensive free throw percentage. They can't afford to be too aggressive, since they're not going to get the ball anyway. Additionally, according to PBP statistics, the Fever are scoring 6.7 more points per 100 possessions on field goal attempts than on free throw attempts.
Going deeper
Caitlin Clark's Olympic exclusion could be a blessing in disguise for her rookie season
7. Phoenix Mercury
rebound
Some teams prioritize defensive rebounding, others offensive rebounding. For the Mercury, they struggle to corral rebounds on either side. They rank 11th in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. This is partly structural. Phoenix typically uses a lot of wings and only has one true frontcourt player, either Brittney Griner or Natasha Mack. The Mercury was even smaller with the injury to Rebecca Allen, which further exacerbated their possession disadvantage. Opponents were allowed 14 more field goal attempts in each of the first two games of the second half. There will likely be no major changes in the lineup between now and the end of the season. At this point, Phoenix must do everything they can to improve their boxouts.
8. Atlanta Dream
Playing more optimal lineup combinations
The Dream have had a relatively miserable first half since giving up a 2025 first-round pick in the trade for Alisha Gray. The trade was the right move for Atlanta in the long run, but it negates the value of going below the plate ahead of a potentially game-changing draft. That's why the Dream need to make the most of their current situation and make a playoff push, despite losing eight straight games before the Olympic break.
Fortunately for the Dream, Atlanta is finally healthy enough to make the most of their roster. After two straight wins, the Dream are still last in the league in offensive efficiency, allowing just 94.8 points per 100 possessions, the worst mark in the WNBA since 2021. The top five players with positive on-off differentials on the offensive end are Gray, Tina Charles, Naz Hillmon, Rhyne Howard and Jordan Canada, but they didn’t play together in the first half. Now available, Tanisha Wright has started this group in the past two games, leading to two big wins over Seattle and Connecticut. This is a unit whose skillsets complement each other in rim pressure, shooting, and perimeter and interior defense, and Atlanta needs to make the most of their minutes going forward.
JC didn't come to play! 🔥 #AtlantaDream pic.twitter.com/7vjakGTrfM
— Atlanta Dream (@AtlantaDream) August 19, 2024
Aiming for the postseason
9. Chicago Sky
Unleash Dana Evans
The Sky have five players under contract for next season, two of which are likely to be future core members in Angel Reese and Camila Cardoso. Dana Evans will be a restricted free agent, so Chicago could keep her on the team long-term if she fits in with the frontcourt duo. Lindsay Allen and Chennedy Carter have been much better perimeter additions so far, but this is a chance for Evans to show why she's staying. If it doesn't work out, losing isn't the worst-case scenario for the Sky. If both the Sky and Wings miss the playoffs, the Sky could be in the lottery.
10. Dallas Wings
Clean up turnover
One day we'll stop talking about Dallas' hole at point guard. Today is not that day. The Wings were able to field their first-choice starting five in their second-half season opener against Connecticut, but they ended up committing 21 turnovers, worse than their league-leading 16.6 per game. Sevgi Uzun has not been the answer at point guard; 19.4% of her possessions resulted in turnovers, 135th among all WNBA players. With last year's offensive point guard trio of Crystal Dangerfield, Veronica Barton and Odyssey Sims all moving on to other teams, Uzun and rookie Jaycee Sheldon (not a natural lead guard) have been given the duties and have clearly struggled.
In fairness to the rookies, post-ups naturally lead to more turnovers, and Dallas (arguably the biggest team in the league) ranks second in post-ups per game. Still, many of the Wings' errors were self-destructive and likely the result of miscellaneous misalignment among the players. Improved health could help them bond, as Dallas will need to value possessions to get back to the playoffs.
11. Los Angeles Sparks
Turn the page
Unfortunately for Sparks fans who have watched their team make the lottery three years in a row over the years, a fourth time is in the franchise's long-term interest, especially after rookie Cameron Brink tore his ACL in June. LA doesn't have the talent to compete in the playoffs, and chasing the No. 8 seed for a two-game sweep doesn't make sense, especially when the Sparks have a first-round pick this year but not in 2026. Ideally, LA would use as many young players as possible and see what Reke Jackson, Ray Burell, Gia Cook and Lee Yuelu can do by the 2025 offseason, when the Sparks must build a competitive roster. By dropping to the bottom of the standings (LA is currently two games “ahead” of Washington for their worst record in two years), the Sparks can get the best lottery odds possible with the draft of Paige Bueckers. She's the perfect perimeter complement to a rookie frontcourt of Brink and Jackson.
Going deeper
Paige Bueckers is aiming for this to be her final season at the University of Connecticut… and to leave with a bang.
12. Washington Mystics
Shakira Austin's comeback
Austin had an All-Rookie season in 2022 and made the Team USA FIBA World Cup roster, but she wasn't healthy enough to consistently replicate that level of play. Now that she's back with the Mystics, it's a chance to readjust Austin to WNBA play and see how she fits with Aaliyah Edwards. With Washington likely to get at least one or even two lottery picks in the next draft, the front office will need to determine if the franchise needs another frontcourt piece or if Austin and Edwards can be the fulcrum going forward. The good news for the Mystics is that they have talented guards in Julie Van Lew and Brittney Sykes to properly evaluate the frontcourt in that situation.
(Photo of Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark by Justin Castaline/Getty Images)
