The witness list is dwindling. A final statement could be released as early as Tuesday. A Manhattan jury will then meet in the former president's first criminal trial to decide whether Donald J. Trump, a convicted felon, will campaign this fall.
The political impact of one of the most consequential jury deliberations in this country's history is never predictable.
“You know what?” said Republican strategist Mike Murphy, a longtime critic of Trump. “The first casualty of today's I'm right, you're wrong politics is institutional trust. We no longer have politics that accepts unbiased facts.”
But whether or not the ruling marks a political turning point, it will be a pivotal moment in the campaign.
The case is one of Trump's four indictments to go to trial before Election Day, even though the charges of falsifying financial records related to hush money payments to porn stars don't match the severity of the case. It is the only case expected to reach a conclusion. The indictment accuses Trump of trying to prevent the peaceful transfer of power in 2020.
There is little doubt that Trump's supporters are unlikely to abandon him at this point. What is less clear is that swing voters and some traditional Democratic constituencies (younger, black, Hispanic How voters (voters) handle guilty verdicts.
Jim Margolis, a veteran Democratic strategist and ad creator, said: “We've looked at a lot of polls and found that a significant number of voters would turn away from Trump if he was convicted.'' was shown,” he said. “I hope that turns out to be true. But if past is prologue, I don't think we expect anything like that to happen.”
Trump's political strategy ahead of his sentencing is predictably well-worn.
How his experience, having endured multiple investigations, civil trials, and two impeachments, declares victory against the deep state that tried and failed to capture him in case of acquittal or a hung jury. provided a template for It is also a roadmap for how he and his allies, if convicted, will seek to undermine the legitimacy of the prosecution as a partisan charlatan designed to undermine his candidacy. It's a message he's been preaching for months.
Based on Mr. Trump's previous statements, Trump's shorthand would be “total exoneration'' if he is innocent, and “election interference'' if he is guilty.
Trump's press secretary, Stephen Chan, said in a statement that Trump's team will “fight and crush disinformation about the Biden trial across the country.”
The Biden campaign has largely avoided speaking directly about the trial, avoiding contributing to unsubstantiated Republican claims that the Biden administration was behind the New York attack. But Biden's political movement, which declined to comment, winked at last week's trial and wore shirts after Biden proposed a debate that read “Free on Wednesdays,” a weekday when the trial is suspended. I sold it.
But the Trump campaign, which favors drama and whose travel schedule is limited by the trial, is planning a large rally in the Bronx on Thursday, the same day the jury could reach its verdict. There may be confusion on that day. It's a combustible situation in a country where violence is an ugly part of the political landscape.
Trump has called some of those facing criminal charges for taking part in the January 6 attack “hostages,” and has begun some events by playing recordings of defendants singing the national anthem from prison. A man who broke into former Speaker Nancy Pelosi's home and beat her husband with a hammer last week was sentenced to 30 years in federal prison.
Bradley Beychuk, co-founder of the progressive group American Bridge, pledged last week to launch a $140 million anti-Trump advertising campaign, and no matter what the ruling is, He said the strategy remains unchanged.
“Democrats have to be careful not to fall for the bait that their job is simply to tell voters how evil, wicked and horrible Donald Trump is,” he said. “He has all of those things, but we have to focus on how this impacts their daily lives.”
Ahead of the trial's conclusion, veteran Republican strategist Alex Castellanos outlined a situation where Trump wins on heads and Biden loses on tails.
“If he's acquitted, he'll be vindicated. If he's found guilty, he'll be a martyr. And that's how you start a religion,” he said of Trump.
Mr. Castellanos explained that Mr. Trump's Teflon-like positions are rooted in his promise to overturn institutions and institutional norms that many in the country feel are not working.
“He can grab women with nasty words, and he can say about John McCain, 'I like uncaptured heroes,' and everyone says this is the end of him, this is his I think it's going to hurt,” Castellanos said. He said. “What does history teach us? He can really shoot people on Fifth Avenue and get away with it. Because it's not about him. It's about who he stops. He The reason he can eat kryptonite is because he was chosen for the grenade under the door of the facility.
It is unprecedented for a presidential candidate to campaign under the cloud of a criminal conviction. One of the few high-profile cases in which a politician voted immediately after a conviction was that of former Sen. Ted Stevens, who narrowly won re-election in 2008 just days after being convicted of seven felonies. was. The race was so close that it was not decided until absentee ballots were counted.
But a recent New York Times/Siena College survey of battleground states found that even as this historic trial was underway, a whopping 36 percent of voters said they rarely or never I replied that I wasn't paying attention. And the all-important independent voters were even less interested, with 45% saying they were paying little or no attention.
Margolis, the Democratic strategist, said the lack of television cameras in the courtroom is a missing element.
Regarding Stormy Daniels, a woman who denies having sexual contact with Trump, he said, “We will not air any live TV, any video of Stormy testifying, or any footage of Trump sleeping.'' Told. money case. “That's a big reason why this trial won't shake America.”
According to a person familiar with the survey, the Trump campaign asks voters in their polls what news they are most interested in, but the trial rate does not exceed 20%.
Perhaps as a result, a conviction could still come as a shocking surprise. A Times/Siena poll found that just 35% of voters in six battleground states thought a conviction was very likely or somewhat likely.
Voters were divided on whether Trump would receive a fair trial in New York along predictable partisan lines, but about one in five Democrats said they believed Trump would receive a fair trial. Roughly the same number of Republicans believed they would receive a fair trial. A slim majority of independents believed he would not receive a fair trial.
One of the political costs of the trial has already been incurred by Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump has been confined to New York four days a week for a month, which is significant given that a candidate's time is considered the most valuable resource on the campaign trail.
Murphy, a Republican strategist, said that Trump's daily on-camera statements in court, even if he has courted supporters lining up behind him, undermine the strong-man image he is trying to project. He said there was.
“His brand is strength. What he likes is being cocky in front of an enthusiastic crowd,” Murphy said. Instead, he said, the commentary made Trump look like “an old dirty lion caught in a net.”
“The whole atmosphere of a caged, defeated animal is bad for President Trump,” he said.
