Could Ichiro Suzuki become the second player in history to be unanimously inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame? Billy Wagner gets the five votes he missed out on last year and earns a spot in his final year of eligibility Can you do it? Will CC Sabathia make it to Cooperstown on his first try?
All three scenarios are on the table leading up to the announcement of Hall of Fame voting results on January 21st.
Voting will be done by approximately 400 voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America. As of Tuesday afternoon, all 151 ballots recorded in Ryan Thibodeau's Baseball Hall of Fame tracker had a box checked next to Suzuki's name.
So far, the only unanimous Hall of Fame inductee is famed Yankees closer Mariano Rivera — not Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Ken Griffey Jr., or Derek Jeter. Only Rivera. Is there a chance that Suzuki will be in second place?
Thibodeau said he doesn't expect an answer to that until the results are officially announced.
“We haven't seen him left off the ballot yet, but I suspect we won't until the results are announced,” Thibodeau told Blue Sky earlier this week. said in a direct message. “If someone left him behind, we probably wouldn't know until afterwards.”
Jeter was removed by one vote in 2020 and Griffey was removed by three votes in 2016.
Voters are not required to reveal their ballots, but the Hall of Fame allows them to reveal their selections by checking a box on their ballots after their votes are announced. A total of 385 ballots were returned last year, and 306 voters chose to release their ballots. The voters who removed Mr. Jeter from the ballot in 2020 and the three who removed Mr. Griffey from the ballot in 2016 have not been identified.
Suzuki is not the only candidate in line for the position. Sabathia is getting 140, 92.7 percent, which bodes well for a first-year pick.
“I'll admit I've been a little surprised by the strength of CC's support so far. I had been eyeing him as a maybe 75 percent bubble candidate, but it's been going well so far, and it's been a long time coming for voting season. Most are comfortably in the low 90s,” Thibodeau wrote. “Unless late public and private voters have wildly different assessments of Sabathia's qualifications, he will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.”
FanGraphs' Jay Jaffe, author of “The Cooperstown Case Files,” said he was surprised by Sabathia's performance in his first year on the ballot.
“I thought he was going to be a squeamish guy, like (Joe) Mauer was last year,” he said, using the Jaffe-Waugh scoring system that Hall of Fame voters often refer to when selecting nominees. Jaffe, who developed the JAWS. historical perspective. “I don't expect him to stay at 92 percent or even 90 percent, but I think there's a very good chance he'll be over 80 percent.”
Mr. Wagner will be on the ballot for the 10th and final time. After just missing the 75 percent mark a year ago, he's steadily on his way to becoming a Hall of Famer. As of Tuesday afternoon, he had received 84.1 percent of the popular vote.
It's not just the raw numbers that are in Wagner's favor. Trends are also behind him. He just narrowly missed out and was added to the eight ballots that were not included last year, and out of the 141 public votes submitted, those who checked his name last year chose him this year. There is no one who is not. Eight other first-time voters also voted for Wagner.
“There are still many first-time voters, and he needs to maintain solid support from them,” Thibodeau wrote. “There are probably dozens of voters who will age out of the electorate this year, and if he happens to have very strong support among them, there's still a lot to get him to the finish line.” There may be something to do.”
As of Tuesday afternoon, Carlos Beltrán had 79.5% of the vote, while Andrew Jones was just below the threshold at 74.2%. Thibodeau said that last year, people who released their ballots before the release received an average of 7.55 votes per vote. Voters who waited until after the announcement received an average of 6.77 votes per vote, and an average of 5.8 names from secret ballots. Thibodeau, who started tracking voting in 2012, said these trends have remained stable over the years.
While the current vote totals are not encouraging for Beltran or Jones in relation to their 2025 hopes, they are positive for their eventual inauguration. There are no players in next year's freshman class with career bWAR of 60 or higher, such as Suzuki (60) or Sabathia (62.3). The top first-year players in next year's voting are Cole Hamels (59 bWAR) and Ryan Braun (47.1 bWAR).
Jaffe said the strength of Sabathia's support bodes well for the future of not only Sabathia, but also Andy Pettitte, Felix Hernandez, Mark Buehle and Hamels.
“Andy Pettit and Felix Hernandez are almost polar opposites in terms of how they got here. Pettit has had a very journeyman career and has been instrumental in helping his team reach and win the World Series. We did a tremendous amount of work in the postseason, which was very important,” Jaffe said. “Felix had a very high peak, but he had a short lifespan, burned out early, and had no postseason experience.”
Pettit was on the ballot for the seventh time, receiving 31.8% of the vote as of Tuesday afternoon. Last year, Pettit received 52 votes (13.5%), but this year he has already received 48 votes, representing a significant increase. Hernández, in his first year on the ballot, had 25.2% of the vote as of Tuesday afternoon.
While the focus of voting is always on the 75% line needed to lead, another metric to look at is the 5% needed to remain on the ballot.
Of the 14 names that appeared on the ballot for the first time, seven had not received a public vote as of Tuesday morning. Of the seven remaining first-year eligible players, only Suzuki, Sabathia, Hernandez and Dustin Pedroia (12.6 percent) received the required 5 percent to remain on the ballot.
This means 10 players are at risk of being dropped from the vote, including the catcher pair of Russell Martin (4.6%) and Brian McCann (4%), who are in their first year of service. You may be excluded from voting based on your eyes. Torii Hunter (1.3%), who is voting for the fifth time, and Francisco Rodriguez (7.9%), who are voting for the third time, also face the possibility of not getting 5%. Mark Buehle, who is voting for the fifth time, had 19 votes as of Tuesday morning, enough votes to keep him on the ballot for another year as long as he doesn't get more than 380 votes. One more vote for Buhle between Tuesday afternoon and next week's announcement will secure the longtime Chicago White Sox starter a spot on next year's ballot.
(Photo: Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
