South Africa is heading for big changes.
What that change will look like specifically, and whether it will alleviate the many hardships facing South Africans, remains the million-dollar question.
The African National Congress (ANC), which has ruled South Africa with large electoral majorities since democracy began in 1994, received just around 40 percent of the vote in last week's elections. As a result of this poor showing, the ANC is now in negotiations with rival parties to form a government.
“In their desperation, I wonder what choices they will make,” said Bekindlela Sebekhulu, 40, a theatre actor from Soweto.
Sebekulu asked whether South Africa would soon have a white president, or whether a pro-socialist party would take away his ownership of his home. He said he voted for the ANC after waiting in line for more than an hour. What worries him most, he said, is former president Jacob Zuma's threats to change the constitution.
The National Assembly, the country's highest legislative body, must meet and select a president within two weeks of the official announcement of Sunday's election results.
African National Congress officials say they want their party leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa, to run for a second term. Ramaphosa's fate will likely depend on negotiations.
South Africa seems to be looking down two paths.
The outcome could shock the ANC, or whoever comes to power, into doing more to tackle the poverty, unemployment, crime and inequality that plagues the country – or risk losing more support – or it could deepen political polarization and infighting, with little being done to address the problems.
The new government should at least take “a step in the right direction,” said Hengiwe Ndlovu, a political science lecturer at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg. But if politics become dysfunctional, the country “could slip into chaos, violence and collapse,” he added.
Learn about the key leaders who will determine South Africa's future and the impact they are likely to have.
Cyril Ramaphosa and the African National Congress
The biggest question for the 71-year-old Ramaphosa and his party is what kind of deal they want. All of them carry risks.
They could join forces with the Democratic Alliance, but that could alienate some of their core supporters in black townships and rural communities because the Alliance has staunchly opposed policies that give blacks preferential treatment in jobs and ownership.
Another option is for the African National Congress to reunite with Zuma, who once led the party but helped launch a new one to challenge his former ally in this election. But bringing Zuma back into the party could undermine the ANC's commitment to rooting out years of rampant corruption within the party. Zuma, a sworn enemy of former Deputy President Ramaphosa, was forced to resign in 2018 amid growing corruption allegations.
The party could also turn to former member Julius Malema, who was a fiery youth leader before being expelled and founded the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters a decade ago. His socialist stance, supported by some in the African National Congress, could steer the party in a direction it does not want.
It could rule as a minority government, meaning the ANC would negotiate with other parties on an issue-by-issue basis, or some have suggested forming a “national unity government” involving all parties in parliament.
“All options are open,” the party's secretary-general, Fikile Mbalula, said on Sunday, but he said they would not be forced into a bad deal. “We are talking, but we are not begging.”
John Steenhausen and the Democratic Union
The Democratic Alliance has been one of the ANC's harshest critics, hurling personal insults at ANC members and filing lawsuits over several laws passed by the ANC.
Led by Mr. Steenhausen, 48, who is white, the party abandoned a more diverse leadership when it lost the vote of white conservatives and has leaned toward some issues asserted by parts of the far right, such as issuing a news release lamenting without evidence a “surge” in farmer killings and advocating the continued use of Afrikaans at Stellenbosch University.
Still, in some ways, a coalition between the Democratic Alliance and the ANC makes sense. The party won nearly 22% of the vote, making it the second-largest party. The ANC's current leadership generally advocates similar centrist economic policies to the Democratic Alliance. Big business would likely welcome the coalition. Analysts say the partnership would likely protect and strengthen state institutions. And the Democratic Alliance has a track record of functional governance in the Western Cape, the fourth-largest province, and could act as a check on government corruption, they say.
The two parties could clash over issues such as racial equality left over from apartheid and foreign policy. The Democratic Alliance is a strong supporter of the West. The African National Congress stresses the importance of the West but also promotes strong partnerships with countries such as China, Russia and Iran.
Tony Leong, a former Democratic Alliance leader and part of the team leading the party's coalition talks, said his party's voters would overcome their reservations about the ANC if they believed they would have a more functional government. They would also want to block Zuma and Malema's parties from power because of the left-wing economic policies they pursue.
“I can assure you that 80 per cent, maybe more, of DA voters will say: 'Make a sensible deal with the ANC',” he said.
Such a deal might mean compromising on policies important to the ANC. One of the Democratic Alliance's key priorities is to end “cadre placements,” or the practice of putting unqualified party members in key positions. The Alliance also promises to end affirmative action because, according to its manifesto, it has “only enriched a small, well-connected elite.”
Jacob Zuma and MK
Zuma's Umkhonto weSizwe party, known as MK, was formed just six months ago and was the election's most shocking disruptor, coming in third with about 15 percent of the national vote, the highest ever for a first-time party.
MK has a strict policy agenda: confiscate all land without compensation and place it under state control; abolish the current constitution; establish a chamber in parliament for leaders of traditional ethnic groups; roll back the transition to renewable energy and promote coal and nuclear power.
But many analysts say the 82-year-old Zuma seems less interested in policy and more interested in punishing Ramaphosa and his party. Zuma leads MK and was recently stripped of his parliamentary seat after being convicted of failing to testify in a corruption investigation, a charge he claims is politically motivated by Ramaphosa's government.
Some political analysts and rival politicians say Zuma also wants access to state power to clear up some of his legal troubles, as he faces corruption charges stemming from an arms deal he signed nearly two decades ago when he was vice president.
African National Congress officials have already demanded that President Ramaphosa resign as a condition for forming a coalition government, but the party has so far resisted the demand.
Analysts say there are major concerns that a joining of forces between the two parties would essentially bring back the sectarianism and corruption that has crippled the ANC's ability to govern.
“Voters are looking for better management and better outcomes from current policies,” said Ebrahim Faqir, an election analyst at the African Institute for Sustainable Democracy and Elections.
Julius Malema and the Economic Freedom Fighters
Malema has softened his rhetoric in some ways, but his demands are bold. Last week he made clear what he wants from his coalition partners: land acquisition without compensation within six months, the creation of a national bank and cancellation of student loans within 12 months, free water and electricity for all welfare recipients, and finding a partner that is “not a puppet or representative of the Western imperialist project.”
But the 43-year-old leader has lost some influence following his party's disappointing election results, with its approval rating falling about one percentage point since the last election in 2019 to about 9.5 percent.
Still, as a former ANC member, he has allies within the organisation, and his political style is embraced by a faction of the party that believes the current leadership is not doing enough to address the economic inequality that plagues black South Africans.
Fakir said investors may initially be shocked by an alliance between the ANC and the Economic Freedom Fighters, given Malema's left-leaning stance, but such concerns are overblown. He said the alliance would not lead to the more dramatic changes Malema is seeking.
Instead, he said, there might be “a strengthening of the current welfare state.” The two parties would probably negotiate something similar to the Reconstruction and Development Plan, he said. The Reconstruction and Development Plan was a public spending program adopted toward the end of apartheid that Fakir described as “a somewhat radical Marshall Plan.”