India and Pakistan claimed victory on Sunday after agreeing to an armistice in a rapidly escalating conflict caused by a deadly terrorist attack on the Indian side of Kashmir last month, raising concerns that two nuclear forces could end in all-out war.
India condemned the April 22 attack on Pakistan's history of protecting Pakistan's terrorist groups and launched air strikes across the border, with Pakistan responding in kind. The conflict escalated quickly, with both countries colliding with each other's territory more deeply than they had in the last 50 years.
On Saturday, President Trump announced that both sides agreed to a ceasefire with the help of American mediators, congratulating them on stopping the attack as the first full day of the fragile truce appeared to have been held on Sunday. The damage can take weeks and months, especially in a space of media blackouts and extreme disinformation, but we know how the conflict unfolds.
First shot
In the opening game of the airstrike before dawn on Wednesday, India has attacked targets within enemy territory more than in decades, and with all accounts, it has been close enough to facilities that can claim victory to facilities associated with terrorist groups.
However, it soon became clear that it was not a clean strike, but a prolonged involvement between the two Air Forces. Jets on each side go to the other jets, and the boundary between them goes as lines that are not crossed either. India lost its aircraft in exchanges that include at least two of the most advanced fighter planes. Indian officials have refused to comment on details of the aircraft's loss, but have not refused to report the loss of the jet plane.
The sacrifices from the strike were contradictory. India's defense minister said he had killed “100 terrorists” during a parliamentary briefing. Pakistan has brought India's first strike to around 30.
escalation
On the second day, in an effort to boost off-ramp, India said it had hampered Pakistan's overnight attempts to hit military targets in 12 border cities and towns. In response, it was acting like analysts almost always saying it would escalate the conflict. It struck sensitive military targets, especially in Pakistan's city of Lahore, and in particular the air defense system.
“We are pleased to announce that Kim Heriot Dara, strategic and defense analyst at the Australian Institute of India,” said Kim Heriot Dara, strategic and defense analyst at the Australian Institute of India. “It'll knock out the defense and open a corridor where the aircraft can fly and hit actual targets.”
Diplomats and analysts are uncertain about how the events of early Thursday morning unfolded, but it is clear that something has changed and is seen as a significant change in the pattern of escalation. It is still unclear whether Pakistan will actually try to use drone invasions and hacks of missiles to attack Indian military locations, or whether it will warn India and investigate the air force defense system for something later.
While attention was drawn to the escalation of the sky, fierce cross-border artillery bombardment caused heavy civilian casualties and forced tens of thousands of people to leave their homes in Kashmir.
Pakistan's surprising official response – a complete denial of doing something on the second night – left two explanations for the event. It was merely an investigation mission that Pakistan didn't want to be distracted from the actual retaliation that had come, or that it was the first retaliation that had not been successful.
But nonetheless, India has had the opportunity to damage Pakistan's important military sites. Pakistan vowed to retaliate. The only way escalation was arrested was the way it was always.
Alarm on strategic sites
On Friday and Saturday nights, the situation escalated rapidly to the Air Force, with a small number of holds being banned, but ground forces were not moved.
Pakistan has launched an immense campaign of drone and missile strikes, targeting military bases in several Indian cities. This time, with approval from the Indian side, the air defense blocked most of the barrage of the barrage, but there was damage to equipment and losses to security personnel.
Indian officials said they lost five security forces on Monday.
There was evidence that includes satellite images shown by the Indian military, and that India has produced damage on the Pakistani side, targeting the aviation fields and more defence systems, and is also prominent in the vicinity of one of Pakistan's key strategic headquarters. Pakistan only admits damage to radar and military equipment despite allegations that India killed several Pakistani soldiers.
Warning the US and strengthening the diplomatic push for the ceasefire announced on Saturday has not only increased strikes to sensitive locations, but also meant the next step in the ladder of rapid escalation of two vigilant nuclear forces.
What's ahead
The scores are still tallied and are rated for damages, but the four days could have fundamentally transformed the reality of conflict in this part of the world into contactless wars.
A wealth of new generation technologies, especially inexpensive drones and Reuthanian ammunition, may initially suggest more precise targeting and less human costs. However, in this latest India-Pakistan conflict, these technologies still spurred a rapid cycle of escalation that led to concerns that nuclear weapons could be placed on the table.
