The candidates are the same. The circumstances are very different.
Thursday's first 2024 presidential debate between President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump offers both men a rare chance to change the course of a so far stable campaign.
Biden used the historic early showdown to highlight the stark differences between the two men's competing visions for America. His team wants to encourage voters to think of 2024 solely as a vote on his leadership (as opposed to choice, the buzzword in Bidenland) and to warn that a second term for Trump would be more extreme and vengeful than his first.
Trump is also keen to debate, as he believes Biden's cognitive abilities have deteriorated since their debate in October 2020. He is particularly keen for the chance to attack Biden's record on the border and inflation.
There is little mutual respect between the two sides, and the hostility is expected to be palpable in an empty CNN television studio in Atlanta, where the most crucial 90 minutes of the campaign will take place.
Some things to note:
Could Trump make this about Biden and vice versa?
The debate will be the first of its kind in modern history, as both candidates have already served as president.
Voters know them, but many voters hate them, so it's essential that we talk about the other candidates and their record as much as we talk about ourselves.
The Trump campaign is confident that a long period of high inflation, rising migration across the border and instability abroad in Israel and Ukraine will drive the election to victory as a referendum on Biden's term in office.
For Biden, debating Trump means confronting him about his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, his willingness to pardon those convicted in the riot (he has called them “hostages”) and his promise to be a “dictator” on his “first day in office.”
And then there's Trump's new status as a convicted felon. The Biden campaign is beginning to view Trump's legal problems in the broader context of the former president campaigning primarily on his own behalf.
Trump, meanwhile, is keen to avoid lengthy debates on those topics. He has been holding a series of talks with allies and advisers in the run-up to the debate, which his campaign has called “policy sessions.” Biden, meanwhile, has been surrounded by aides at Camp David for several days of intense preparation, including a mock debate rehearsal that began on Monday.
China Absolute Immigration: A Debate Within a Debate
Biden and Trump have fundamentally different approaches to the economy, taxation, abortion, the border, America's role in the world and the democratic process itself.
The debate in the debate will be which of these issues will be central to the discussion.
Biden is hoping to pursue Trump on the issue of abortion. Four years ago, Biden said during a debate that Roe v. Wade was a “vote item,” a charge Trump has repeatedly denied. “It's not a vote item,” Trump said at the time. Since then, Trump has taken credit for the Supreme Court decision that overturned federal abortion rights.
Trump now says he wants to allow states to enact any abortion restrictions they want. He supports exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.
Biden is expected to argue that Trump ultimately supported a nationwide abortion ban, paving the way for restrictions on in vitro fertilization and contraception.
If abortion is Biden's biggest issue, Trump's team sees the border, and crime committed by immigrants crossing the border illegally, as a weakness for the current president.
A new New York Times/Siena College poll found that 84% of voters who said immigration was their top issue said Trump did a better job on the issue, while the results were the opposite on abortion, with 81% of voters who said abortion was their top issue backing Biden.
Will Trump come out fighting?
Trump knows his aggression in the first 2020 debate was so fierce that it drew backlash — “Would you just shut up?” sighed Biden — but the former New York businessman has always been a relentless and combative figure on the debate stage, comfortable with the kind of personal name-calling and insults rarely seen at this level of politics before his arrival.
Trump has made questioning Biden's mental health a central part of his 2024 campaign for months, and has recently tried hard to shore up those hopes. In May, he called Biden “the worst debater I've ever faced.” In June, he praised him as “a fine debater.”
Pre-debate spin is the norm, but Trump and his campaign have gone far beyond that, indulging in unfounded claims that Biden uses performance-enhancing drugs, a standard Trump tactic before general election debates since 2016.
“Trump has lost his mind,” said Cedric Richmond, a former White House adviser who was part of the Camp David debate planning team. “He and the truth are not on the same planet. That's the difficulty.”
How will Biden overcome the age issue?
At 81, Biden is the oldest president in US history — Trump, 78, would break that record if elected, as he will turn 82 before the end of his term — but months of polling have shown that voters are primarily concerned about the incumbent president's ability to do his job.
Any words Biden uses to address questions about his age and competence will be among the most scrutinized of the debate. There's a danger in being too flippant on a subject that concerns about 70% of voters. But Biden also needs to be forceful so his answers aren't quickly forgotten. Those around Biden believe that 90 minutes of demonstrating his understanding of the issues will determine the public's perception of his fitness.
Few Americans have seen much of Biden lately, beyond his State of the Union address in March. A strong performance from Biden wouldn't fully answer questions about whether he's eligible to serve another term, which ends at age 86, but it could calm them. A stumble could add to doubts about Biden heading into the Democratic National Convention.
Whatever happens, historically early discussions mean it could be months before there's a chance for a do-over.
Who can handle the new format better?
This debate will be different from previous ones because there will be no live audience for the candidates to respond to, CNN said it will mute the candidates' microphones when they're not scheduled to speak, and the rules say the network's hosts, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, will “use all available tools” to ensure a civil debate.
The exchanges between Biden, Trump and the moderators will be closely watched. Biden doesn't want to get hung up on correcting every single lie Trump tells. As Biden said in the 2020 debate, “I'm not here to expose his lies.”
Trump himself has framed the debate as a three-on-one showdown, but his advisers are lobbying the moderator not to interfere. “Will CNN decide they're the moderator?” Trump adviser Chris LaCivita told reporters on Tuesday. “Or will CNN become a participant?”
According to CNN, Trump and Biden will stand at podiums just eight feet apart, meaning they'll be able to hear each other even with their microphones muted, adding to the appeal.
Who can create a more memorable (and meme-able) moment?
The debate will only last about 90 minutes, but both sides are preparing for the minutes and hours afterward that could deeply sway public opinion.
Trump has a MAGA army ready to amplify his greatest hits, and Biden's campaign has also been aggressively courting social media heavyweights, with mixed results.
How important are these online influencers?
The Democratic Party just invited content creators to its convention to help spread the word, while former President Barack Obama met with 80 content creators in Los Angeles ahead of a joint fundraiser with Biden this month to urge them to get involved. “It doesn't matter if you have 4 million followers if you don't do anything,” Obama told them.
The big-name moments are typically unscripted — an eye roll, a fly landing on the vice president's head — but modern campaigns take seriously the desire to create memorable clashes on lucrative policy grounds.
The goal is to “view policy debates through the prism of the high-flying moments that are going to go viral,” said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, which presented the recommendations to the Biden campaign. No matter how many winning exchanges a candidate has, “if those moments aren't included in what goes viral, you're in trouble,” Green warned.
Michael Gold and Ruth Igielnik Contributed report.