Hurricane Beryl slammed into the Caribbean earlier this month and eventually made landfall in Texas, knocking out power to millions and triggering more than 100 tornado warnings, but the storm was already breaking records as the start of the 2024 hurricane season.
Fueled by extremely warm waters, the storm intensified quickly, setting alarming records in what is already predicted to be the most active hurricane season on record — and it's only the middle of July.
Now, researchers are studying what we can learn from the oldest Category 5 hurricane on record and what it means for coastal North Carolina.
This includes unusually high water temperatures in early summer that are not typically seen until August and September, and the warm ocean environment is allowing tropical weather systems to generate significantly more powerful storms that can quickly develop into severe hurricanes.
“A powerful combination of extremely high sea surface temperatures and an ongoing La Niña weather pattern (favorable for Atlantic tropical storms) is predicted to result in a record-high active season with 33 named storms (plus or minus six),” Dr. Michael Mann, a meteorologist and scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, said in an email.
Corey Davis, North Carolina's assistant state climatologist, echoed similar sentiments.
“Beryl may have formed in June, but it had all the characteristics of a storm typically seen near the peak of the season in September,” he said in an email.
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What was so special about Beryl?
While it's not uncommon for named storms to form in late June and early July, what's particularly worrying about Beryl to researchers is how quickly the storm intensified after reaching the bathtub-like waters of the Caribbean.
After slamming into Grenada on July 1, Beryl rapidly intensified over the warm waters of the Caribbean to become the fastest Category 4 hurricane on record, surpassing Hurricane Dennis, which reached Category 4 status on July 8, 2005, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The superstorm became a Category 5 monster a few days later, breaking the record set by 2005's Hurricane Emily by more than two weeks.
That means Beryl's wind speeds increased by 95 mph over the course of about two days, a phenomenon known as rapid intensification.
Mann said Beryl was the furthest east of any hurricane ever formed, which allowed it to intensify and batter the Lesser Antilles, which stretches from the Virgin Islands in the north to Grenada in the south.
“As global warming progresses, we're seeing more areas of very warm ocean, which causes storms to form in the eastern Atlantic (where sea surface temperatures have historically been too cold for tropical cyclones), which gives storms more time to intensify, and as they intensify, the deeper waters get wetter,” Mann said. “And we saw all of that unfold with Beryl.”
Davis said the effects of climate change in the tropics could portend problems if hurricanes target the southeastern U.S.
“As long as the Atlantic remains warm, and it should continue to get warmer between now and September, this kind of rapid intensification is not only possible, but it could happen for other storms that develop this season,” Davis said.
Though the 2024 hurricane season has just begun, there are already signs that this year's storm activity will repeat the unusually busy and deadly 2005 season, which saw 15 landfalling hurricanes, led by Hurricane Katrina, and the emergence of storms named in Greek letters after the “traditional” names were exhausted. Hurricane Ophelia caused the most damage in North Carolina.
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What role did La Niña play?
The El Niño weather pattern has dominated global weather patterns for the past year or so, but experts expect it to shift to La Niña in the coming weeks.
La Niña is a phenomenon that causes sea surface temperatures to cool in parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, reducing wind shear in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, creating favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development, and often causing drier weather in the southeastern United States, especially toward the end of the year.
The 2024 hurricane season runs from June 1 to November and has produced three named storms so far: Alberto, Beryl and Chris.
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What does Beryl mean for North Carolina?
Even with modern technology, hurricane forecasting is an inexact science, and yet all the data points to a very prolific hurricane season, and all it takes is one storm making landfall in the wrong place to make for a very bad year.
Given that a storm as powerful as Beryl has developed this early in the season and caused destruction in the Caribbean, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Texas, Davis said a coming storm moving north could continue eastern North Carolina's “summer of extreme weather,” which has included scorching heat, numerous record-breaking events in recent weeks and the driest June in North Carolina's history.
Davis added that with ongoing very warm ocean temperatures, North Carolina can't necessarily expect the storm to weaken much before making landfall, noting that it's been a long time since a major hurricane made landfall in the state, since Fran in 1996.
Hurricane Beryl:Heatwave burns Texas, millions lose power
“Every storm is different, and we don't know how many storms will hit North Carolina this year or how intense they will be, but Beryl is a reminder that we're already seeing the types of storms and their impacts we're familiar with, and storms can cause significant damage in any category.”
Mann said storms like Beryl show that climate change is now beginning to show its full arsenal, meaning warmer temperatures, extended droughts, more intense storms and worse flooding in the summer.
“We're seeing all of this, but if the planet continues to warm because of carbon pollution from burning fossil fuels, we're going to see more of these events, and some even worse,” he said.
Reporter Gareth McGrath can be reached at GMCGrath@Gannett.com or @GarethMcGrathSN on X/Twitter. This story was produced with funding from the Green South Foundation and the Prentice Foundation. USA TODAY Network retains all editorial control of this story.
