As Ukraine's second-largest city braces for a new Russian offensive, NATO allies are increasingly backing Kiev's request to allow Ukrainian forces to use Western weaponry to launch attacks on Russian territory.
President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to use U.S. weapons against Russian military targets to blunt Russia's Kharkiv offensive comes just days after Canada decided to allow the use of its own supplied weapons. More than a dozen countries have given Ukraine similar permission.
The United States, Ukraine's largest arms supplier, has been reluctant to take this step for fear of provoking Russia and drawing NATO into the conflict, sparking a larger war. Without Washington's approval, the US-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) can only attack Russian targets inside Ukraine.
But many Western leaders and military analysts say Ukraine absolutely needs the authority to attack Russian soil with Western weapons as Russia masses thousands of troops on the Ukrainian side of the border, less than 20 miles from the northeastern city of Kharkiv. Biden's authorization is intended only for Ukraine to strike Russian military facilities being used in the Kharkiv offensive, U.S. officials said.
“Russian commanders are well aware that Ukraine cannot fight back,” Peter Dickinson, a Ukraine analyst at the Atlantic Council in Washington, wrote in an analysis published before Biden's policy change.
Officials and experts say firing missiles at Russia and attacking its troops, bases, airfields and supply lines could yield immediate benefits. Indeed, the Ukrainian military appears to already be preparing some initial attacks to “test Russia's response,” Raphael Roth, a weapons expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said in an interview Thursday.
Ross said Ukraine and its NATO allies are reluctant to risk changing tactics without U.S. approval: “If Russia were to launch a significant escalation against NATO territory, for example, the United States would ultimately bear the burden of the response.”
Below is a summary of countries that have and have not already given Ukraine permission to use its weapons on Russian territory, and the possible repercussions if Ukraine is given free rein to fight Russia.
Those who support attacks on Russian territory
Countries that provide weapons to Ukraine have the right to stipulate how they are used, and so far the UK, Canada, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden and Poland have stated they support Ukraine in attacking military targets on Russian territory.
Some countries have been more cautious than others. Germany and Sweden, for example, have limited their approval to conditions “within the framework of international law,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Tuesday, a condition that other countries have also insisted on, though less vocally, over the past two years for arms supplies to Ukraine.
Britain was one of the first countries to push for loosening restrictions. “Ukraine has that right,” Foreign Secretary David Cameron said during a visit to Kiev on May 3. “I understand that Ukraine feels the need to ensure its own defence, given that Russia is attacking it on its soil.”
The movement has gained momentum after strong backing from French President Emmanuel Macron led a reluctant Germany to rethink its position this week. “It's like saying, 'We give you weapons, but you can't use them to defend yourself,'” Macron said this week in Berlin, with Scholz at his side.
Those calling for a “cautious” approach
Several countries, including Belgium, Italy and, so far, the United States, have said they are not prepared to allow Ukraine to use its weapons to attack targets inside Russia, citing risks that are difficult to predict. For example, Ukraine's recent attack on a Russian nuclear early warning radar system with its own drones is potentially destabilizing and has raised deep concerns in Washington.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said Monday that NATO allies “must be very careful” before using Western weapons on Russian territory. A day later, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo announced a donation of 30 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, but only for “use by the Ukrainian Defence Forces on Ukrainian territory.”
In Washington, a White House spokesman insisted on Tuesday that the Biden administration would not “encourage or enable” the use of U.S. weapons on Russian territory, but that resistance softened in the face of growing pressure from allies, and a day later, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken suggested the United States might “adapt and adjust” its posture depending on battlefield conditions.
The Biden administration has resisted Ukraine's requests for more powerful weaponry, but it has a long history of bowing to pressure and giving in when Ukraine's prospects look bleak. This has happened with weapons such as ATACM missile systems, Abrams tanks and F-16 fighter jets.
But a senior Biden administration official said that in a small number of cases, the United States has authorized Ukrainian forces to use Patriot air defense missiles to shoot down Russian fighter jets operating in Russian airspace.
Possible impacts
Permission has already been granted to Ukraine to attack Russia with British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles and the similar French-made SCALP missiles, which have a range of about 150 miles and can be launched from Ukraine's aging fleet of fighter jets.
Several countries, including the UK, Germany, Norway and the US, have provided Ukraine with ground-based missile launchers capable of firing longer-range missiles. These systems, known as HIMARS and MLRS launchers, can also fire the US ATACMS missile, which has a range of up to 190 miles.
“If approved for use, ATACMS could reduce Russia's ability to use its territory as a sanctuary for ground operations,” Ross said.
(Germany has so far refused to donate Taurus missiles, with a range of 310 miles, due to concerns they could be fired deep into Russia, escalating war. Ross said this makes it even less likely Germany would donate.)
In addition, Britain, Canada and the United States are supplying Ukraine with medium-range missiles and ground-based small diameter bombs capable of reaching Russia, 50 to 90 miles away.
But the new authorizations could have the biggest impact in a war for air superiority, especially if allies allow donated jets and drones to attack Russian airspace.
It's unclear whether Denmark or the Netherlands would allow the F-16 fighter jets they send to Ukraine to fly in Russian airspace and potentially be shot down. In comments this week, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren did not appear to place any specific limits on weapons provided by the Netherlands. “I have never ruled out attacks by Ukraine on Russian territory,” she said.
At least four other countries — Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and North Macedonia — have donated Soviet-era fighter jets, while Britain and Turkey have also sent long-range attack drones that fly directly to Russia.
Ross said that at the very least, the soon-to-arrive fleet of F-16 fighter jets would be equipped with long-range missiles capable of striking Russian jets “behind the border”, which he said would have implications for Ukraine's future air power.
“We're not there yet,” he said, noting that Ukrainian pilots are not yet skilled enough to match Russian advantages, “but it's possible that Ukraine's future F-16 fleet could strike Russian territory.”
Eric Schmidt Contributing reporting from San Francisco Edward Wong From Prague.