When the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the country's opposition signed an agreement in October to work toward free and fair elections this year, it offered a glimmer of hope after years of authoritarian rule and economic decline. It was considered.
In a gesture of goodwill, the United States temporarily lifted some economic sanctions that had crippled the country's vital oil industry.
But six months later, Maduro's government has taken several steps that dilute the chances of a legitimate election, and a frustrated Biden administration announced Wednesday that it would let sanctions relief expire.
The reinstatement of penalties could have significant implications for the future of Venezuela's democracy, economy, and migration in the region.
“President Maduro and his representatives did not fully abide by the spirit or the letter of the agreement,” said a senior government official who spoke to reporters on background to discuss sensitive foreign affairs issues.
Discussing the reinstated sanctions, another government official cited “the disqualification of candidates and political parties on technicalities and what we see as a continuing pattern of harassment and repression against opposition forces and civil society.” Ta.
The sanctions relief will expire at midnight on Wednesday, but officials said there will be a “45-day grace period for transactions related to operations in the oil and gas sector” to ensure the expiration “does not cause uncertainty in the economic situation”. He said it was planned. The world's energy sector. ”
The Venezuelan government did not respond to requests for comment. But Maduro said in a televised address on Monday that he hoped sanctions would be reinstated. “We are not a gringo colony. We are not a gringo colony.'' Venezuela will continue to develop economically. ”
The U.S. has imposed sanctions on some Venezuelan leaders for years, but the Trump administration imposed sanctions in 2019 after the U.S. accused Maduro of cheating in the last presidential election. has been significantly strengthened.
The measures were intended to remove the Maduro regime from power, but Maduro managed to stay in power even though the sanctions caused economic hardship for many Venezuelans.
Venezuelan oil imports to the United States, its largest customer, were effectively banned. Oil is Venezuela's main source of export revenue, and sanctions have dealt a devastating economic blow and contributed to a mass exodus of Venezuelans.
Sanctions relief has allowed Venezuela to sell its oil freely for six months.
Mr. Maduro, who has been in power for 11 years, has long called for sanctions to be lifted, but the United States and its allies in the Venezuelan rebels have urged Mr. Maduro to allow competitive elections that could give legitimate benefits to his political opponents. asked me to do it. When you win.
The agreement, signed in Barbados last year, was an important step forward, but many were skeptical whether Mr. Maduro would actually tolerate an election he could lose.
Just days after the agreement was signed, former Venezuelan lawmaker Maria Colina Machado won the primary election with more than 90% of the vote. Her experts say her victory and her high turnout show she has a good chance of defeating Mr. Maduro in a free and fair election.
Since then, Maduro's government has put up further barriers to prevent the possibility of a competitive vote.
The country's highest court disqualified Machado in January after the judges alleged financial irregularities that occurred while he was a member of Congress. These types of disqualifications are a common tactic used by Mr. Maduro to keep powerful competitors from voting.
The government then used technical election tactics to prevent the opposition coalition from fielding another preferred candidate. The opposition was ultimately allowed to field former diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez as another candidate, but it is unclear whether his name will appear on the ballot in the July 28 election. .
One opposition party was allowed to formally register another candidate, political analysts said. That person is Manuel Rosales, governor of the populous state of Zulia, whose candidacy is widely seen as having Mr. Maduro's approval, according to political analysts.
An unclassified US intelligence report in February said Maduro was likely to win the election and remain in power “thanks to his control of state institutions and his willingness to exercise power to influence the electoral process.” Stated.
Maduro's government has allies in Venezuela's electoral commission, but the intelligence report said it is also “trying to avoid blatant vote fraud.”
Six of Machado's campaign aides have been arrested, and six more have gone missing since arrest warrants were issued. At her event, men on motorcycles attacked her supporters. Many Venezuelans living abroad are unable to register to vote because of the costly and cumbersome process.
Now that sanctions have been reinstated, experts say the Venezuelan government is unlikely to reconsider its anti-democratic actions.
Mariano de Alba, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group think tank, said Maduro's government “has no reason to make any more concessions or even maintain some of the concessions it has made.” “So we may be moving towards a more unequal playing field on the electoral side.”
This move could also affect migration within the region.
Hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans, exhausted by years of economic struggle and lack of freedom, have attempted to reach the U.S. border over the past two years, creating a political and humanitarian crisis for the Biden administration.
Around the time of the Barbados Accord, Venezuela also agreed to take in Venezuelan migrants deported from the United States, a sign that President Biden is aggressively tackling record border crossings and making it difficult to consider travel. It was intended to deter other Venezuelans who may have committed the crime.
However, these deportation flights stopped in February without explanation. Now that sanctions have been reinstated, they are unlikely to be reinstated.
Experts say sanctions relief has also had a modest but noticeable impact on Venezuela's economy over the past six months. Oil exports recently reached a four-year high, and inflation has hit a 10-year low.
However, these gains could be reversed if sanctions are reinstated. Experts say the weak economy and the high likelihood that Mr. Maduro will win another fraudulent election could lead to another surge in immigration.
The Biden administration has said it will reinstate sanctions, but another U.S. official said the government could still allow individual companies to do business with Venezuela's oil and gas sector.
Experts said allowing such limited trade with Venezuela to continue would give the United States some leverage in talks with Maduro's government.
