This week, as Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken neared the end of a whirlwind tour of the Middle East, he left a seaside hotel in Tel Aviv after meeting with the Israeli president and relatives of American hostages held by Hamas. He shook hands with the assembled demonstrators.
He looked them in the eye and told them there was a new hostage deal on the table for a ceasefire for Hamas to take.
“Bringing our loved ones home is at the heart of everything we do, and we will not rest until everyone is home – men, women, soldiers, civilians, young and old.” ” he said.
Publicly showing sympathy for disaffected protesters is something Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has avoided since the war began in October. And in recent days, he has focused his recent public comments on an impending ground offensive, an invasion of the city of Rafah in southern Gaza “with or without a cease-fire agreement,” as the Israeli leader said Tuesday. There is.
It was not the first time Netanyahu had promised to invade Hamas' last stronghold in the Gaza Strip, but the timing of his remarks surprised U.S. officials. Threatening an attack in Rafah could put pressure on Hamas to agree to a deal, but only if the release of Palestinian prisoners and a six-week cessation of fighting eventually led to a permanent cease-fire and the bloody attack in Rafah. only if Hamas leaders believe they can avoid fighting. Officials say more than 1 million displaced people are seeking shelter there.
Nearly seven months into the war, the stated objectives and diplomatic efforts of the United States and Israel appear more divergent than ever, with the gap growing under the domestic political imperatives of President Biden and Mr. Netanyahu. It continues to spread.
Biden and his aides envision a path for Hamas to free about 30 hostages within weeks. The two countries have reached a temporary ceasefire, which will result in the permanent release of one or more hostages. Prominent Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, agreed not only to normalize relations with Israel but also to participate in reconstruction and security efforts.
Israeli officials recently showed some flexibility on the terms of the ceasefire agreement, saying they would reduce the number of hostages Hamas must release in the first phase from 40 to 33.
However, despite Israel's concessions on these points, Prime Minister Netanyahu has rejected the idea of a permanent ceasefire and, despite widespread belief among US officials, remains with Hamas and Rafah. It further doubled down on a public vow to eradicate many of the alleged militants. that his goal is unachievable.
U.S. officials oppose the invasion of Rafah, saying Israel should carry out precise operations against Hamas leaders rather than a large-scale attack. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Mr. Blinken reiterated the United States' “clear position” on Rafah when he met with Mr. Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Wednesday.
The pressure on the Biden administration is also clear. Biden's liberal voting coalition could splinter as opposition to his unwavering support for Israel in the war grows, jeopardizing his chances of defeating Republican nominee Donald J. Trump in November Become. The issue has gained further attention due to student protests against Biden's policies on American university campuses and the resulting police crackdowns.
And the United States has found itself shielding Israel from pro-Palestinian resolutions at the United Nations, fending off criticism from Arab partners and governments across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Amid calls for hypocrisy against the US government, Biden's support for Israel could make it difficult to win support for US policies aimed at countering Russia and China, especially in countries in the Global South. is obvious.
Blinken is up to the task. On Monday, the first day of his current tour of the Middle East, he met with Arab and European officials in Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh to steer discussions on the release of hostages in Gaza and a post-war reconstruction plan. He made humanitarian aid the theme of his stay in Jordan the next day.
Asked by reporters about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's insistence on attacking Rafah, Blinken said the ceasefire and humanitarian aid were the “focus” of the U.S. effort.
Israeli protesters outside Mr. Blinken's hotel in Tel Aviv were feeling the same wavelength. They sought to end the crisis that began with an Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack that killed some 1,200 Israelis and took about 250 hostages, not their own wishes, but the US. I have high hopes for the government. More than 34,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli retaliatory air operations and ground invasions.
“SOSUSA, you are the only one who can save us from this crisis,” the demonstrators shouted. “Thank you, Biden. Thank you, Blinken.”
Mr. Biden and Mr. Netanyahu are also at odds over what Americans say is a long-term political solution to the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The United States is working on a plan to get Saudi Arabia, and possibly other Arab states, to agree to normalize relations with Israel, but only if the Israeli government commits to a concrete path with firm deadlines for the creation of a Palestinian state. Limited. Mr. Netanyahu, like many Israelis, opposes it.
Still, Biden has maintained general support for Israel during the war and has not placed conditions on military aid or arms sales that centrist foreign policy analysts and even former U.S. officials have called for. do not have.
Netanyahu, who clings to power despite his declining international and domestic standing, faces a range of seemingly mutually exclusive choices. He is caught between conflicting pressures from the Biden administration and the far-right coalition, whose support is essential for the Biden administration's survival.
The prime minister's far-right ministers have threatened to resign if the long-touted Operation Rafah is called off. Ultranationalist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich explained The hostage trade is being discussed as a “dangerous Israeli surrender and Hamas' terrible victory”. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said on Tuesday he had “warned” Prime Minister Netanyahu of the consequences of not going to Rafah and agreeing to a “reckless agreement” to end the war.
The centrists, who joined Netanyahu's government in October and brought broad popular legitimacy to the war effort, have signaled they will not tolerate decisions based on political considerations rather than national interest.
The Israeli people, despite being divided over the prospects for absolute victory, are as eager for the return of the hostages as they are for the defeat of Hamas.
A poll commissioned this week by Israel's public broadcaster Kan showed that 54% of respondents supported an initial agreement to release the most vulnerable hostages during a 40-day ceasefire. Almost half of respondents (47%) said they supported a comprehensive deal for all hostages and an end to the war.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu's political future depends on the outcome of the war,” said Nachman Shai, a former government minister and Israeli foreign affairs and security expert. “He can't juggle all the balls.”
For now, Mr. Netanyahu's critics say he is wavering. Some say they are relying on Hamas leadership to refuse to be on the hostage deal table, while others say they are being held by far-right government ministers. Both views may be valid.
A political cartoon published Wednesday in the popular Hebrew-language newspaper Yediot Aronaut shows Prime Minister Netanyahu sitting at a desk labeled “Prime Minister of Israel,” looking over a proposal for a hostage deal, and saying, “My boss… It will never work,'' he was pictured declaring.