When Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago, the Ukrainian military had only one Bodana gun in its arsenal. But this one weapon, manufactured in Ukraine in 2018 and capable of firing NATO-caliber rounds, proved highly effective in the early days of the war, with weapons ranging from the northeastern city of Kharkov to the southwest coast. , trucked to battlefields across the country. The Black Sea and points in between.
Currently, Ukraine's arms industry produces eight self-propelled Bodana artillery systems per month, and although officials did not say how many in total they have produced, the increase in production is due to the potential of domestic arms production. This indicates the possibility of a boom.
Growth happens at pivotal moments. The Russian war machine has already quadrupled weapons production around the clock. Ukrainian forces are losing territory in some key areas, including the eastern stronghold of Avdiivka, from which they withdrew in February. The US aid package is still pending in Congress. And while European defense companies have cautiously begun operations in Ukraine, major U.S. arms producers have not yet committed to setting up factories during the war.
It is widely agreed that Ukraine needs to rebuild its domestic defense industry to ensure that its military does not have to rely on the West for years to come. Western countries have sometimes been hesitant to send advanced weapons systems, including air defense, tanks, and long-range weapons. missile. It remains to be seen whether they will be able to do so in time to change the course of the war without further U.S. military aid.
But Ukrainian military engineers have already shown remarkable skill in adapting older weapons systems with more modern firepower. And according to Ukrainian government documents reviewed by The New York Times, in the last year alone Ukrainian defense companies have built three times as many armored vehicles as they had made before the war and quadrupled production of anti-tank missiles. It is said that it has increased.
According to an analysis of Ukraine's military budget to 2030 by the defense intelligence company Jane's, funding for research and development is expected to increase eight times this year (from $162 million to $1.3 billion). Military procurement is projected to reach nearly $10 billion in 2023, the highest level in 20 years, from about $1 billion a year before the war.
“We say death to our enemies begins with us,” Ukraine's Strategic and Industry Minister Alexander Kamyshin said in an interview last month in his office in a nondescript brick building surrounded by restaurants and apartment blocks in Kiev. he said.
“It's about showing that we're not going to sit around and wait for you to come and help us,” Kamyshin said. “It’s about trying to make something ourselves.”
Some weapons have proven more difficult to produce in Ukraine than others. That includes 155mm artillery shells, which are desperately needed on the battlefield but rely on imported raw materials and licensing rights from Western manufacturers and governments. Kamisin said domestic production of 155-millimeter shells was “in progress” but did not specify the timing.
Ukraine's defense industry, once a major supplier to the Soviet Union, has suffered budget cuts for more than 30 years since Ukraine declared independence in 1991. The Kiev government currently plans to spend about $6 billion this year on Ukrainian-made weapons, including one million drones. But Kamisin said, “We can produce more than the funds available.”
Overcoming a prolonged downturn may be difficult. For example, in order to resume production of the 2S22 Bodana gun, the authorities needed to trace the original designers and engineers of this weapon, some of whom were assigned to simple military tasks throughout Ukraine.
By June 2022, Ukrainian forces were using Bodana's 30-mile range to target and destroy Russian air defenses at the Battle of Snake Island in the Black Sea.
“It was a very big surprise for the Russians,” said Maj. Miroslav Hay, a special operations officer who helped liberate the island. “They couldn't understand how they could use artillery at this distance.”
In Europe, political leaders worried about losing U.S. support and business executives who see new market opportunities are pushing for Ukraine, even if it takes years for arms and supplies to reach the battlefield. is promoting its military production business.
German weapons giant Rheinmetall and Turkish drone maker Baikal are building manufacturing plants in Ukraine. France's defense minister said in March that three French companies that make unmanned aircraft and ground combat equipment were close to similar agreements. Last month, Germany and France announced a joint venture through their defense conglomerate KNDS to manufacture parts for tanks and howitzers, and eventually entire weapons systems, in Ukraine.
Experts said the Ukrainian military had air defense systems in place around some of its most important weapons factories. Foreign-owned factories are likely to be built primarily in the western part of the country, far from the front lines but protected by air defense facilities.
Christian Shea, director of Ukraine operations for British-based military contractor BAE Systems, said even the initial move by foreign manufacturers sends “an important message that they can come into Ukraine and set things up.” .
BAE Systems is considering manufacturing weapons in Ukraine in the future, but the company is currently taking a “fix-it-forward” approach to repairing combat-damaged weapons at Ukrainian factories and returning them to the front lines. The focus is on, Shea said. Faster. Many of the weapons used in Ukrainian ground combat are manufactured by BAE Systems, including the M777 and Archer howitzers, Bradley and his CV90 fighting vehicle, and the Challenger 2 tank.
“We want to keep fighting for these assets, but it's becoming pretty clear that we can't continue to keep these assets in neighboring countries,” Shea said. “It is unacceptable that hundreds of high-quality, reliable howitzers must travel hundreds of miles in a prolonged war of attrition.”
So far, no major U.S. weapons manufacturers have announced plans to open production lines in Ukraine, Ukrainian and U.S. officials said. But some senior officials have traveled to Kiev in recent weeks to meet with Kamyshin and others, and the Biden administration hosted a meeting in December that brought together Ukrainian leaders and U.S. military contractors.
Helping Ukraine rebuild its defense industry has become even more important as Congressional Republicans have blocked $60 billion in military and financial aid to the country. (However, Louisiana Republican Party Chairman Mike Johnson recently indicated that he is exploring politically favorable ways to bring the aid package to a vote.)
But Kiev's web of bureaucracy threatens to slow down at least some investors who are trying to push their proposals through the ministries of defence, digital transformation and Kamyshin's strategic industries.
“We're just trying to understand how all of this fits together and how they work together,” said the American Institute of Peace, who is leading the effort for the U.S. Institute of Peace. said William B. Taylor, former ambassador to Kyiv. and Ukrainian defense companies.
“U.S. companies have many opportunities to invest elsewhere around the world,” Taylor said. “This is an issue where America's national interests are at stake, so we're going to go the extra mile to build these connections.”
With 155-millimeter shells sorely needed, Taylor suggested that the first joint venture between Ukrainian and American companies could focus on expanding production.
European producers have already entered that market.
“I believe that the problem of 'shell starvation' will be resolved over time if the Europeans participate in the amount of development they have promised,” Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Shirushkyi said in an interview published on Friday, according to Ukrainian state media. told. .
Although Ukrainian manufacturers are prohibited from exporting weapons until the end of the war, Kamyshin appears to want to compete with foreign arms manufacturers.
Mr. Kamyshyn, who sports a goatee and a topknot traditionally worn by Ukrainian Cossacks and delivers powerful speeches, is one of what Mr. Taylor described as a new generation of Ukrainian leaders. At the age of 39, he is a young cannon who has quickly risen through the ranks of Ukrainian society. Government ranks.
In March 2023, after being appointed as minister, Kamyshin visited almost all weapons factories in Ukraine and said he had found industries in dire need of a fundamental overhaul. In some locations, workers were working in affected factories. In some regions, rockets were made by hand.
He said production is now running more smoothly, but he said he still receives daily updates on critical assembly lines so that breakdowns can be quickly identified and fixed quickly.
“We're making things faster and cheaper, and it's working,” Kamishin said in an interview, which was as much about promoting domestic weapons as it was about foreign investment.
“We will join you in NATO one day,” he said confidently. “So if you source from us, you're accumulating a capability that will one day become part of a joint capability. So why not invest in a joint capability?”
Vladislav Golovin and Oleksandra Mykolyshin Contributed to the report.
