U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin and his Chinese counterpart held their first face-to-face talks in 18 months on Friday, against a backdrop of mistrust over Taiwan, the South China Sea and other regional disputes.
Austin's meeting with Chinese Admiral Dong Jun in Singapore came after a flurry of senior Biden administration officials visited Beijing to discuss trade imbalances, U.S. restrictions on technology sales to China, China's support for Russia during the war in Ukraine and other sources of tension.
President Biden has maintained that high-level communication channels need to remain open between the United States and China to prevent a clash between the world's two most powerful militaries. But military issues remain the most difficult area of tension between the two countries, and expectations for the defense ministers' meeting in Singapore were muted.
“This is not a negotiation meant to be a compromise,” said Drew Thompson, a visiting senior fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore who previously worked for the Pentagon on negotiations with the Chinese military. “This is an opportunity for both sides to trade established talking points.”
The military rivalry between the two countries is rooted in long-standing disputes that are not easily resolved, including China's claims to Taiwan, an island democracy that relies on the United States for its security, and Beijing's increasingly assertive claims over vast swathes of the South China Sea that have alarmed its neighbors.
Dong took over as defense minister late last year following the sudden disappearance of his predecessor, who was apparently embroiled in a widening investigation into corruption and other wrongdoings in the People's Liberation Army. He is not seen as having the authority to make major strategic decisions.
“He's not a member of the Central Military Commission, much less the Politburo,” Thompson said, referring to two of the most powerful bodies in China's leadership.
The US may just want to show that despite their differences, both sides are at least willing to talk.
For more than two years, the Pentagon has focused on supporting Ukraine and containing risks in the Middle East while Israel fights Hamas, but China's military buildup remains a “pacing challenge” in the eyes of Pentagon planners, a long-term seismic shift that, if poorly managed, could drag the U.S. into war with another nuclear power.
Pentagon officials have warned that People's Liberation Army military aircraft and warships have become increasingly aggressive and reckless, frequently tailing and harassing those of China and allies such as Australia to gather intelligence.
Austin is likely to ask Admiral Dong for clarification on measures to avoid crisis-inducing accidents, such as establishing a communications link between the People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theater Command, which oversees the sea and air around Taiwan and the western Pacific, and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.
The Pentagon said at the time that Austin spoke with Admiral Dong over a video call in April and “reiterated that the United States will continue to fly, sail, and operate safely and responsibly where permitted under international law.”
But Chinese officials are wary of making any commitments because they believe Chinese military actions would be destabilizing and don't believe other nations have the right to operate so close to China's coast. In their view, agreeing to stricter rules for military aircraft and ship encounters would simply give U.S. forces greater authority to approach China's coast and gather useful images and signals.
The United States has by far the world's largest military, and its Pentagon budget is still roughly three times China's annual military spending, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
But Beijing does not have the global engagement or operations of the U.S. military and is particularly focused on projecting power in Asia, where it has territorial disputes with neighbors from Japan to Indonesia, and across the ocean.
Admiral Tung is likely to reiterate Beijing's long-standing opposition to continued U.S. support for Taiwan, particularly in the form of arms sales.
Dong's predecessor, General Li Shangfu, is under U.S. sanctions and declined to meet with Austin in Singapore last year. Austin and Dong met via video call in April. Austin last met in person with a Chinese defence minister in November 2022, when he met with General Wei Fenghe in Cambodia.
Friday's meeting adds one more conversation to that list, and that alone may be the only sign of progress.