Ukrainian President Volodimia Zelensky was already facing a difficult week as foreign authorities gathered in Europe for discussions about his country's future.
The Trump administration has demanded $500 billion in Ukrainian mineral rights, cancelling Ukraine's exemption from US tariffs, and major American skeptics in military aid to Kiev, Vice President JD Vance, have said that Ukrainians and He was heading to Europe for a meeting. leader.
However, on Wednesday, things got worse from worse. Trump's Secretary of Defense gave a rigorous assessment of Ukraine's outlook in the war with Russia. Trump later announced that he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin. Trump was characterized as the initiation of talks to end the war without playing a clear role for Zelensky.
The phone also spelled out the end of American efforts to diplomatically isolate Russia nearly three years ago after a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
“He's geopolitical on his heel,” said Cliff Kupchan, chairman of Eurasia Group, a Washington-based risk analysis company, about Zelensky.
Trump's actions over the past two days — including the exchange of prisoners with the Kremlin that freed American teachers — shows the thawing relationship between the US and Russia. Bystander.
Trump also called Ukrainian leaders on Wednesday, but in his social media post he didn't mention how Zelensky would expect at the Peace Conference or Zelensky would.
Zelensky will meet with Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the annual Munich Security Conference, which will open Friday, Trump said.
Negotiations to end Europe's most deadly war in generations shape the future of Ukraine, and recent developments mean that a portion of its territory is likely to remain under Russian occupation.
And they will shape Zelensky's political future. He is shared by most Ukrainians, ready to negotiate without imposing troublesome situations or putting more military and economic pressure on them. Despite his deep skepticism, there are few options other than going with the US-led consultations.
By Thursday morning, it was a widespread swirling sentiment in Kiev. This is a city I visited every night with Russian missiles and explosive drones.
Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko wrote on Facebook that Putin is most likely to have played the Trump administration for a long time. “He's not going to compromise by ending the war, as Trump's team would like,” he wrote.
Trump was not the only person to bring down some plain news to Ukraine. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegses told European allies on Wednesday that it would be “unrealistic” for Ukraine to return to the border before the Russian military invasion began in 2014.
He then adds that the US does not support Ukraine's goal of joining NATO and ensuring peace reconciliation, calling it “unrealistic.”
Ukraine's Territory Control
Russian is popular
Separatist
control
Russia was seized
Crimea in 2014.
Ukraine's Territory Control
Russia seized Crimea
2014.
Russian is popular
Separatist control
Zelensky played a weaker hand long ago. On the opening day of the Russian invasion, he leapt out of the bunker and filmed a selfie video that brought together his country and most of the world to the Ukrainian cause.
Now he is once again facing a pivotal moment for his country.
Zelensky said he is willing to negotiate with Putin twice recently if his Western allies provide security assurances in the settlement. In his evening speech to the country on Wednesday, the Ukrainian leader said he had reconciled and had a “good detailed discussion” with Trump.
“We discussed many aspects of diplomacy, military and economics, and President Trump made me know what Putin said to him,” he added. “We believe that America's strength is sufficient to put pressure on Russia and Putin on peace together with us, with all our partners.”
Putin shows that Zelensky needs to face elections at home before Russia accepts his signature in the peace deal.
According to someone who had a recent conversation about a settlement scenario with a Russian official, this demand suggests Russia's views on a potential three-stage process for negotiating a settlement in the war.
. It envisaged an initial ceasefire and a preliminary deal, followed by elections in Ukraine, followed by a binding peace settlement, which said it had discussed on condition of anonymity to discuss personal conversations.
There were some bright spots for Ukraine. Shortly after taking office, Trump criticized Putin harshly, saying he was “destroying” Russia in the war.
And while Trump's claims about Ukrainian minerals are also a major expense for Kiev, Ukrainian officials are seen as a hopeful sign.
Mineral rights talks that began on Wednesday when U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent visited Kiev paved the way for continued military aid, claiming Trump had secured US interests.
“They essentially agreed to do that, so at least we don't think it's stupid,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News aired Monday that Ukraine brings its natural resources. He spoke about his motivation. “If not, we're stupid. I told them, “We have to get something. We can't keep paying this money.”
It was before Russia and the United States showed a new will to work together. On Tuesday, Trump's friend and envoy Steve Witkov flew a private jet to Moscow to retrieve Mark Vogel, an imprisoned American teacher who was a prominent gesture of Moscow's settlement. . In return, the Kremlin said the US would return Russian cybercriminal Alexander Vinnik to Russia.
Zelensky repeatedly rejected Putin's claim that he is an illegal leader and that Ukraine should lift martial law and hold elections. (After Russia's invasion in 2022, Ukrainian elections were delayed under martial law.
Ukrainian officials say they view Russia's demands for democratic elections as part of a ploy to destabilise the government and force Ukraine to guard for the vote. They urged the Trump administration not to support the idea.
“It's Russians who are raising the topic of elections because there's a need for men in Ukraine,” Zelensky said in an interview with British broadcaster ITV News last weekend. “Suspending martial law could lead to loss of troops. And Russians would be happy because they lost their spirit and combat qualities.”
But within Ukraine, his domestic opponents are quietly preparing for possible campaigns.
Despite his decline in consultations, it is too early to write off former actor and skilled leader Zelensky, Eurasian analyst Kupchan said. “He has proven to be a very skilled counter puncher,” he said. “I don't think we're in the final act of any play yet.”
Zelensky is preparing for talks as momentum on the main fronts of the war in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine has supported Russia for over a year. It is unclear how long Russia will be able to maintain very high casualties.
And Ukraine is a deeply embarrassing invasion of the Kremlin, taking control of hundreds of square miles of Russian territory in the Kursk region, photographed last summer. Zelensky said that Putin's almost certainly resisting would like to exchange Kursk's territory for Russian Ukrainian land.
Moscow has an advantage if progress momentum continues by dozens or hundreds of yards per day through negotiations. Later, delays by Ukraine to accept the ceasefire conditions would cost Kiev's territory.
However, Russia's progress has been slow since November in monthly measurements of captured territories, according to the War Institute, a US-based analytical group.
For example, in January, Russia captured about 40 square miles than in December, the institute reported. Military analysts warn that it is impossible to determine how important its decline is.
Anton Troiannovsky Reports of contributions.