Now that the US has secured a contract to share rights to Ukraine's mineral reserves, the path to actually extracting minerals is filled with frightening challenges and uncertainties, including key elements for a range of high-tech applications, from powering electric vehicles to producing fighter jets and tanks.
And ending the war with Russia, which has been raging for over three years, is just the first hurdle the US needs to overcome before it can realize its potential storm.
The map showing trillions of dollars of mineral deposits scattered across Ukraine, including areas occupied by the Russian military, is based primarily on outdated studies and could take years for a proper investigation to be completed, experts said. Extracting sediments may not be easy. Investors need to invest billions into Ukraine to extract resources from the planet.
And the country's energy infrastructure, which continues to be caused by Russian missiles and drones, needs to be repaired and upgraded to provide the enormous amount of electricity needed to maintain mining operations.
President Trump said the US is in a position to reap hundreds of millions of dollars from transactions, much higher than the $1 billion annually that Ukraine earns royalties from natural resources.
Still, for the US, the potential advantage is enormous as Washington seeks to find ways to limit its vulnerability to China's control in extracting and processing minerals. China manages more than 90% and 60% of the world's processing of rare earth minerals used in products such as mobile phones and electric vehicles.
“One of the things that appeal to Ukraine is that globally, many reserves are covered by Chinese people, and Ukraine is full of undeveloped possibilities,” said Greserin Baskaran, director of the key mineral security program at the Centre for Strategic and International Research.
The deal also raises the prospects for gas and oil development in the Black Sea, and perhaps even the Azov Sea could present the most pressing opportunities for profitable projects, said Nataliia Shapoval, vice president of Kyiv School of Economics.
It could be a good deal for both Ukraine and the US, she said.
“It sets the state for recovery, investment and development of the Black Sea region,” she said. Nearby Romania is already developing large natural gas deposits in the Black Sea.
However, much of the details still needs to be resolved and depends on the course of the war and the potential form of peace agreements.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky first raised the prospect of offering stock in his country's natural resources last year as a way to provide specific reasons to support his country's battle.
But disagreement over the form of inflamed tensions in the deal between Zelensky and Trump, just as the White House resumed its in-person talks with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin.
Against this background, the initial White House proposal was condemned by some as a terror. This forced the country, the victims of attacks paying compensation for past American aids without guaranteeing future security aids.
Kiev resisted, and the deal was reworked.
The Ukrainian government estimates that there are 5% of the most important raw materials in the world, including lithium, titanium, uranium and graphite. A US Geological Survey found that Ukraine has 20 deposits out of 50 minerals listed as important for American economic development and defense.
But Baskaran warned that it could take years for a proper investigation to take place.
“There could be more deposits that are more economically viable, or they could be less viable,” she says, “it takes an average of 18 years from finding a viable deposit to go to extract.”
Martin Jackson, head of battery raw materials for product research firm CRU, said the future mine in Polokivske, Ukraine, has permission to produce about 2% of the global supply of lithium, a key component of the battery.
However, he said that despite being an important resource for Europe, attributes alone are not enough to ensure that only mines move forward. Mineral lower prices maintain development of less risky projects around the world.
“The biggest obstacle here is actually the lithium market,” he said.
Denys Aloshyn, chief strategy officer at Ukrlithiummining, the mine owner, said the company had licensed the mine in 2017 and hoped to extract lithium by 2029, but it would need to close by $350 million to complete the project.
He said he thought the mineral agreement with the US presented a “opportunity for the Ukrainian mining sector” given how much capital it would need to make the project a successful one.
“Ukraine has historically lacked foreign direct investment,” he said, but he warned that there is unlikely to be any significant progress as long as the war is raging.
