The Mets shouldn't hold back. They should be aggressive buyers at the deadline.

NEW YORK — Pitcher Carlos Mendoza spoke Wednesday about how his bullpen's plans change moment-to-moment during a nine-inning game and smiled at the idea of ​​making a plan before a game and sticking to it.

“I don't think we've ever had a game plan and stuck to it,” the Mets manager said. “We adjust it every time, depending on how the game unfolds. … We have ideas, but we have to make adjustments.”

Perhaps Mendoza's manager, David Stearns, should follow that advice this season.

The Mets entered 2024 with a clear and consistent plan, from ownership to the clubhouse. Though they didn't have the same expectations as they had in previous spring trainings, they still thought they were postseason contenders and had a chance to continue competing in the future. And now, just days before the trade deadline, they are postseason contenders and have a chance to continue competing in the future.

But after another memorable win Thursday night, a 3-2 walk-off victory over Atlanta that was the polar opposite of so many nightmarish nights at Turner Field, maybe it's time for Stearns and the New York front office to get a little greedy about 2024. Yes, the Mets will be buyers at the trade deadline, but I'd argue the Mets should do more than just add a relief pitcher next week. I'd argue they should be aggressive buyers, like they were when the Mets unexpectedly won a championship in 2015.

The Mets are strong enough

On the morning of July 26th, we'll create blind resumes for each team across the years.

So, take off the blinders! What do these similar teams have in common? They're all winning teams.

They were also pretty aggressive at the trade deadline. I would classify the 2018 Dodgers (Manny Machado) and 2022 Phillies (David Robertson, Brandon Marsh, Noah Syndergaard) as all-in buyers, meaning they gave up a lot of current prospects. The 2019 Nationals acquired three relief pitchers, including one who recorded the final out in the World Series. In 2021, Atlanta acquired four outfielders, including a NL Championship Series and World Series MVP. In 2023, Arizona acquired a closer to better position itself for the postseason.

(Incidentally, the 2015 Mets, another all-in buyer, were 50-48 with a minus-7 run differential as of July 26th.)

No, the Mets don't have the kind of starting pitching or bullpen they typically rely on to carry them in October. But New York has the kind of offense built for the postseason. As evidenced by striking out Gerrit Cole twice last month, the Mets' lineup can hold its own with the best. Only Baltimore has hit more home runs since the Mets' hot streak began on May 30. They're also tied for fourth in the major leagues in home runs this season and have more home runs than every team in the National League except the Dodgers. On Thursday, New York took on the dominant Chris Sale, as Francisco Lindor converted one Sale error into two Mets runs.

Home runs have led the offense in October. In 2022, a similarly productive but differently constructed offense tied for 15th in the league in home runs, then Atlanta and San Diego hit home runs in the biggest games of the season. This Mets offense can swing a short series with its power.

National League kicks off

Here's an important note: If I were covering the Pirates, Reds, Padres or Diamondbacks, I'd probably say the exact same thing, because the National League is the most open it's been in years.

Los Angeles and Atlanta have been the two biggest teams on the senior circuit for the past few seasons. Both teams have endured tougher regular seasons than usual. The Dodgers have health issues in their starting rotation that doomed them last October. Atlanta's best hitters and best pitchers are out this season. Their lineups are a far cry from the ones the Mets have faced in the past.

The Phillies are the team to beat in the National League, but the Mets are pretty good at beating them. The Mets went an impressive 14-5 against Philadelphia in 2022 and were 6-7 even in their down years in 2023. This year, the Mets are 2-4 against the Phillies. And, surprisingly, since the start of the 2022 season, New York is 10-3 against both Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler.

The timing is really right

It's very tempting for teams to play it safe this year and try to manipulate their chances to contend for a championship in order to get more in the future, but doing so often means they miss out on opportunities. of A year to win.

The 2015 Mets should have been more cautious. Syndergaard and Steven Matz were rookies, Wheeler was injured, and the National League had some very strong teams. The Mets' best chance to advance in October should have been further down the line. In the end, their young starting rotation wasn't as healthy or dominant as it was then, and the Mets' aggressiveness paid off in the form of a championship.

(Compared to the 2013-2015 Pirates, they never made any big moves to put a very good team over the top, and they still haven't won a postseason series since 1979.)

The Mets also raise the question of how long, exactly, they'll wait. After several injuries to promising players this year, New York likely won't go into spring training in 2025 with a plan to give a talented rookie an everyday spot. Players like Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, Luis Ángel Acuña and Ryan Clifford won't be fully integrated into the team until 2026, when Lindor will be 32 and Brandon Nimmo 33 and near the end of their primes.

The goal is to open a window of continued contendership and have a legitimate chance to win a division, a pennant and a championship. The Mets are there. Their two long-term contract players are having the best years of their careers. Their cornerstone first baseman might not be here next year.

The window of conflict is already open.

What does this mean?

To be honest, that's where most of these columns end. That's the only reason I wanted to do it. It's Stearns' job to turn it into something.

But in the current state of the deadline market, it would be remiss not to say that it's going to be hard to get a shot at. Teams like the Pirates, Reds, Padres and Diamondbacks are still in contention in the National League, and there are fewer sellers than usual. The best starting pitchers that could be traded might not start that much this season. The best relief pitchers that could be traded have walk rates that are not easy to hit with blackjack.

Because the cost of an acquisition in a trade is much harder to predict than open-market salary, it's hard to provide a blueprint at the deadline like you do in the offseason, so you settle for an offer that suits your all-in approach.

1. Negotiate with the White Sox under the assumption they will acquire Garrett Crochette to pitch out of the bullpen in 2024. Athletic On Thursday, Crochet reported that he would like to maintain a starting schedule (but limited innings) for the remainder of this season unless his acquiring team signs him to an extension.

As I noted Thursday morning, the Mets need a long-term ace: a 25-year-old left-handed All-Star who leads the league in strikeouts and is interested in a long-term extension. All of that sounds good. (Like Wheeler, Crochette's arbitration salary over the next two seasons will be capped due to his lack of playing time in his career, so a long-term extension would cost him less against the luxury tax than it otherwise would.)

Acquire Crochette in a trade, give him an extension and make him a scheduled multi-inning reliever for the rest of the season. Imagine him playing behind a right-handed starter in the postseason and serving as a bridge to Edwin Diaz. Put him back in the rotation beyond 2025. That might be worth a big package of much-needed prospects so the Mets don't have to dive deep into the starting pitching market this winter for a 30-something free agent.

2. If Crochet proves too strong, they will add a strengthened rotation (mainly pitchers who miss hitters more often than the current starters) and two relief pitchers and a bench player.

In the rotation, Detroit's Jack Flaherty and Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi come to mind, and while Flaherty would be expensive, he could also be a viable option to re-sign.

The bullpen should prioritize a high-leverage left-hander, perhaps teammate Andrew Nardi next to Tanner Scott. AthleticAndrew Chaffin of the Tigers has been a longtime target. Another multi-inning pitcher would also help the team stay fresh. Cincinnati's Buck Farmer or Detroit's Alex Fayed could fill that role.

The final piece would be a versatile bench contributor who could protect the Mets from declines and injuries at several positions. Detroit's Andy Ibañez, Tampa Bay's Amed Rosario, Toronto's Isaiah Kiner-Falefa or Oakland's Abraham Toro could all fit that role.

(Photo of Jose Butto by Adam Hunger/Getty Images)