The NFL's biggest surprise teams through Week 4 are at both ends of the standings.
The Minnesota Vikings are 4-0 after losing their drafted rookie quarterback and replacing him with road veteran Sam Darnold.
even deeper
From Vikings' shocking start to Chiefs' WR setbacks, evaluating the 4-0 team: Sand's pick 6
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-4 less than four months after giving quarterback Trevor Lawrence a $275 million contract extension.
Here's another surprise. Lawrence's statistical performance across 54 career starts mirrors Darnold's performance up to the same point in his career (Darnold has started 57-60 this season).
It's too early to dissect the Jaguars, but so far Jacksonville fits the mold of a team that overvalued itself, most notably in its quarterback compensation. With no winnable games to play, the team is facing tougher problems sooner than expected, with the Jaguars falling to 0-4 for the second time in four seasons under Lawrence and the fourth time in 13 seasons under owner Shad Khan. It became.
The schedule has them facing winnable opponents over the next three weeks, including the Indianapolis Colts (2-2), Chicago Bears (2-2), and New England Patriots (1-3), but the Jaguars It's bad enough that things didn't go well in the first four games. Examine the evidence. Including Darnold and Lawrence comps.
“It's not going to end well.”
The Jaguars aren't the only team to invest market-setting money on a quarterback with question marks long before the decision deadline. The Miami Dolphins did the same with Tua Tagovailoa, and the Arizona Cardinals did the same with Kyler Murray. Lawrence and Murray both signed extensions with two years left on their rookie contracts.
Shortly after the Jaguars extended Lawrence's contract for $55 million per year, Lawrence was ranked in Tier 3 by a poll of 50 coaches and executives who voted in my 2024 Quarterback Depth Survey. Lawrence was ranked 16th. Tagovailoa was one spot higher. Murray fell one place. (The teams of these three quarterbacks are a combined 2-10 this season.)
even deeper
NFL QB Tier 2024: Only two will join Mahomes in Tier 1. Rogers and Herbert absent
Lawrence's signing came after the Jaguars lost five of their final six games last season, with their only win coming against Carolina when Lawrence was sidelined with an injury.
“They have a quarterback who you think is a superstar, but he's not a superstar,” QB Tears voters said over the summer. “The owners think he's a superstar. It's not going to end well.”
The implication was that Lawrence might be good, but he wasn't great, and he wasn't always good enough to live up to sky-high expectations.
“Without a doubt, this is the best team the Jacksonville Jaguars have ever assembled,” Khan told fans in late August. “The best player, the best coach. But most importantly, let's win now and prove it.”
darnold comp
Through 54 starts, Darnold and Lawrence have the same win-loss record (20-34), the same yards per pass attempt (6.7) and nearly the same average air yards per attempt. Their passer rating was lagging. Darnold also had a sack. Lawrence suffered from an increase in dropped passes.
Lawrence had a higher Expected Points Added (EPA) per pass play, but looking at the table below, one of these quarterbacks deserved a market-defining extension and the other failed miserably. That will never be the conclusion.
Darnold and Lawrence start first 54 games
| QB | Darnold | Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
|
WL |
20-34 (.370) |
20-34 (.370) |
|
cm% |
60.2% |
63.1% |
|
yards/at |
6.7 |
6.7 |
|
TD-INT |
61-53 |
62-40 |
|
evaluation |
79.2 |
84.6 |
|
sack% |
7.4% |
5.4% |
|
Explosive pass% |
15.8% |
14.0% |
|
Rush TD |
12 |
11 |
|
average air yards |
8.1 |
8.0 |
|
Fumble (lost) |
32(13) |
35(21) |
|
Dropped paths (%) |
63 (3.7%) |
106 (5.5%) |
|
EPA/pass play |
-0.07 |
-0.01 |
Both players experienced terrible team situations early in their careers, Darnold with the New York Jets in the NFL's largest media market and Lawrence with Jacksonville in the smallest media market.
even deeper
A look back at Urban Meyer's disastrous year with the Jaguars
“Sometimes you have good players in bad situations, bad players in good situations, and sometimes it takes a little bit of time to see the real benefit,” the veteran coach said.
During the Jaguars' 24-20 loss to Houston in Week 4, Lawrence threw what would have been a long touchdown pass on two open receivers, Christian Kirk and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. I removed it.
Perhaps with those pitches in mind, coach Doug Pederson pushed back when asked after the game about the possibility of taking over play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Press Taylor.
“For what?” Pederson replied. “I thought he had a great game. As coaches, we can't just go out there and make plays. It's a two-way street.”
Lawrence removed Thomas along the right sideline for what would have been another big gain. The receiver made a diving catch and secured two short throws. Other passes were inaccurate enough to limit his yards after the catch. Most of his mistakes were overthrows.
“If someone's spraying the ball very consistently and it's a player who was the No. 1 overall (draft pick), I almost always think, I don't want to say the yips, but there's some element of it. It feels like it’s mechanical and basic,” NFL quarterback-turned-analyst JT O’Sullivan said while breaking down every Jaguars offensive play in Week 4 for his Patreon subscribers. .
O'Sullivan pointed out that in this game Lawrence was jumping backwards unnecessarily when throwing. If a quarterback doesn't trust his pass protection, bad habits can develop. Lawrence took a beating early against Houston as the Texans' physical defense became more assertive.
The Jaguars don't look too bad, ranking 16th in ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate Index and 23rd in Pro Football Focus' Pass Block Rating. Evaluation from within the league was even harsher.
“They play up front like they can't wait until the play is over. It's tough to watch,” a personnel executive said before the Houston game. “Quarterbacks lack easy throws. Poor body language. In general, offensively speaking, it's a downtrodden group.”
Considering potential Wentz similarities
The Philadelphia Eagles ranked 18th in offensive EPA per play during Pederson's Super Bowl-winning tenure as coach from 2016 to 2020. This period saw the rise and fall of Carson Wentz. Is Lawrence following a similar arc on a smaller scale?
The graph above compares the cumulative passing EPA of Wentz and Lawrence during their time at Pederson, linked to their career start numbers. Wentz's line starts with career start number 1, and Lawrence's line starts with career start number 18. There's nothing definitive here, but this might be worth revisiting as the 2024 season progresses.
Pederson benched Wentz late in their fifth and final season together. Lawrence remains in the early part of his fourth NFL season, entering his third alongside Pederson. His five-year contract extension begins in 2026. Regardless of who coaches him, he will likely remain in Jacksonville for years to come.
Lawrence 9 consecutive losses
Lawrence is currently on a nine-game losing streak as a starter, putting him just one spot away from tying Carson Palmer (2010) and Jared Goff (2020-21) for the longest losing streak for a No. 1 draft pick quarterback since 2000. It's approaching.
The 10 will tie the Jaguars' franchise record held by Chad Henne and Blake Bortles.
Darnold has lost nine straight with the Jets before. However, as the table below shows, his recent team and individual production far exceeds Lawrence's production.
Darnold and Lawrence start the last nine games
| QB | Darnold | Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
|
WL |
6-3 (.667) |
0-9 (.000) |
|
cm% |
63.8% |
58.9% |
|
yards/at |
8.6 |
6.3 |
|
TD-INT |
17-6 |
13-8 |
|
evaluation |
105.1 |
80.7 |
|
sack% |
8.4% |
6.5% |
|
Explosive pass% |
21.4% |
13.7% |
|
Rush TD |
2 |
1 |
|
average air yards |
8.5 |
10.1 |
|
Fumble (lost) |
11 (4) |
7(3) |
|
Dropped paths (%) |
5 (2.2%) |
17 (5.4%) |
|
EPA/pass play |
+0.16 |
-0.08 |
The decision to extend Lawrence's contract for such a large amount of money is not the only option that will draw scrutiny for Jacksonville. They used the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft on Travon Walker instead of Aidan Hutchinson. Changes in defense from a broader perspective are also noticeable.
Last season, the Jaguars ranked 23rd on offense and 11th on defense in per-play rating by EPA. They fired defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and seven defensive assistants.
This season's offensive ranking is about the same (24th), but the defensive ranking has deteriorated considerably (30th) while transitioning to a new style. Under coordinator Ryan Nielsen, Jacksonville is playing with the second-highest man coverage percentage (42%) after having the third-lowest man coverage percentage (15%) last season.
Darnold is backed by a defense that ranks among the NFL's top in EPA per play, but he has attempted just two passes while trailing behind this season. The Jaguars' record and Lawrence's role in it would likely be a footnote had Jacksonville gotten that kind of production from its defense this season.
Defensive changes could still be effective. Lawrence and the offense can still continue to perform well.
The Jaguars almost broke through in the season opener in Miami, but running back Travis Etienne fumbled as he approached the goal line. The Dolphins scored an 80-yard touchdown two plays later. Jacksonville gave the Jaguars the lead late in the third quarter on Tank Bigsby's 58-yard run, giving Houston a 20-17 lead in the fourth. The Jaguars turned the ball over on downs.
With the 24-20 loss to Houston, the Jaguars are now 1-4 in games decided by four points or less since the start of last season. Things like this tend to level out. For a team scheduled to welcome its only winning coach, Tom Coughlin, to the Ring of Honor in Week 5, tonight's game can't come soon enough.
(Photo of Trevor Lawrence (right) and Doug Pederson: Brian Bennett/Getty Images)
Get daily NFL updates delivered straight to your inbox for free.
Get daily NFL updates delivered straight to your inbox for free.
sign up
