House Republicans are decamping to Mar-a-Lago this weekend to huddle with President-elect Donald J. Trump and strategize as they struggle to unite around his huge legislative agenda.
But first, he needs to consider an issue that Trump has been struggling with for weeks: how to structure and sequence his long list of priorities so that it can pass Congress. be.
They are anxiously waiting for Mr. Trump to make his intentions clear so they can get to work on one big bill or two more modest bills.
So far, he has been mostly vague, sending mixed signals.
“Whatever it is, it doesn't matter,” Trump told reporters at the Capitol on Wednesday ahead of a meeting with Senate Republicans. “We're going to get results and make America great again.”
For Republican leaders during Trump's first term, how Trump's shifting moods, shifting priorities and flashes of anger lost influence and derailed even the best-laid plans. This was a familiar reenactment of what I experienced as a possibility. And it underscores the tough challenges they face in finalizing the major tax cuts, spending cuts and immigration crackdowns he has demanded.
During his first term, Trump played less of a coach dictating plays and more of a grumpy owner who demanded his teams abandon all strategy in the fourth quarter. In 2018, he threatened to veto a spending bill passed by the Republican-controlled Congress, but ultimately relented. Months later, he threatened to veto an immigration bill sponsored by then-Speaker Paul D. Ryan, but his comments were ignored by aides. He said he would veto the $900 billion coronavirus relief and government funding bill in 2020, but signed it days later.
He played a similar role last month, ripping up Republican leaders for tearing up a bipartisan funding deal negotiated by Speaker Mike Johnson and introducing new demands to raise the debt ceiling, three days before the government shutdown deadline. Caught by surprise, it sparked a revolt within the party. own party.
Republicans on Capitol Hill who lived through Mr. Trump's first term say this is a fact of life in Congress that they are used to. Some of his most ardent allies argue that it is his prerogative to decide to change course.
“He could change his mind,” said Rep. Jody C. Arrington of Texas, chair of the House Budget Committee. “And I don't blame him when he does, and if he does when it happens.”
But they also privately acknowledge that it will be very difficult to negotiate politically tricky deals on thorny issues even if a predictable president is guaranteed to remain in office. There is. This means that Republican lawmakers have no idea whether they can count on the protection of Mr. Trump and his MAGA army of influencers and activists, or whether they should instead brace for a torrent of abuse and major challenges. means.
For now, the task has become extremely complex for Republicans, who are struggling to sort out the dozens of complex policy choices they must make to push through Mr. Trump's legislative agenda.
Republican leaders say Trump's harsh criticism of the bill, which ultimately moves quickly through Congress, will help ensure the bill's passage as Republicans work together with narrow majorities in both chambers. He says it will be extremely important. Mr. Johnson said one benefit of one large bill is that it would increase pressure on Republicans to vote yes or be accused of undermining Mr. Trump's entire agenda.
“I don't think anybody's going to like every element of a big package like this,” Johnson said in an interview on Fox over the weekend. “But there will be enough elements there to pull everyone along. They will be able to justify not satisfying all their preferences on some of their big issues, because There are many other parts of the bill that are very important.”
But for that strategy to work, Trump will need to keep his message out as the bill moves through Congress. Some Republicans say they are privately warning members not to get their hopes up.
Part of the problem is that TV-obsessed presidents often make policy decisions after watching lawmakers and celebrities make persuasive arguments on air, or after being subjected to forced lobbying in person. This means that they may change their minds about the measures.
In 2017, after Trump threatened to veto a massive spending bill to prevent a government shutdown, Ryan rushed to the White House to plead for support for the bill. Two days later, the day before the government shutdown deadline, Trump again floated the idea of vetoing the bill on Twitter after watching an episode of “Fox & Friends” mocking the bill, The Washington Post reported. .
Mr. Ryan had left Washington by then to return to his district in Wisconsin for a break shift, but then called Mr. Trump and persuaded him to change course again.
