President Biden will ignore his opponent and the moderator, turn to the camera, look directly into it and speak directly to voters — at least once.
Trump will take every opportunity to seize the spotlight and dazzle everyone on stage, including the host.
It's been nearly four years since either Trump or Biden last appeared on a debate stage, but we need to look back at the recordings to predict how they'll perform when they face off in Atlanta on Thursday.
The two sparred for a total of 180 minutes together in 2020. The sessions were loud, combative, chaotic and often mean, but they were also instructive, hinting at styles and weaknesses that might be on display again.
We've rewatched both 2020 debates (twice!) and are here to provide a scouting report of sorts on what to expect from the two candidates.
Donald J. Trump
Attack, attack, attack
Trump will likely take an aggressive stance on any question. When Biden spoke about preventing Americans from losing their health insurance, Trump said during the second debate, “With all due respect, he's been there for 47 years and he's done nothing.”
Trump, at least in the debates so far, has not followed the traditional debate rules that Biden and the moderators have followed for decades. Trump's dominance and constant chatter can be disruptive, making the first debate of 2020 look like a car crash. Trump's barrage of whispered comments and corrections seemed designed to throw his opponent off guard and distract him.
But the big question is how well Trump can replicate that combative style. The rules for the second debate in 2020 were changed after Trump's behavior in the first, so candidates' microphones were only turned on when it was their turn to speak. The same rules will apply on Thursday.
“I think this format of the microphone being cut off is at least helping to produce a more disciplined version of Trump than he was in the first debate,” said Kate Bedingfield, who served as Biden's deputy campaign manager in 2020 and helped organize the debates.
Fact, Falsehood, Insult
Ask traditional Republicans what they want to hear Trump say, and they'll likely point to his accomplishments in office, but his past debates suggest that's not where he'll spend most of his time.
In 2020, Trump ran a long string of some-but-not-true claims and Don Rickles-esque insults (“There's nothing clever about you, Joe”) and diatribes filled with characters and confusing references that many voters couldn't understand. (Does anyone really remember Sidney Blumenthal, the former Hillary Clinton aide who appeared multiple times in the Trump-Clinton debates?)
The challenge for Biden will be deciding when to engage and when to ignore him. Clinton encouraged viewers to visit her website to fact-check anything Trump said live, but there's consensus among Democrats that it wasn't particularly effective.
Biden seized the perfect opportunity to call out Trump's inaccuracies by addressing the audience directly: “Given all the lies he's told you on this whole COVID issue, do you believe anything he says for a second?”
When in doubt, change direction
Trump answers the questions he wants to answer, not necessarily the ones he's been asked. When asked in 2016 about an “Access Hollywood” video in which he bragged about grabbing women by their genitals, he dismissed it as locker room talk and moved on to the topic of ISIS “chopping heads off.”
Trump may try to confuse Biden by demanding that he abandon his allyship or apologize for past comments. Trump told Biden, “Don't even say the word law enforcement,” provoking him to say the word, “because if you say that word, you're going to lose all of your radical left supporters.”
Or Mr Trump might try to put his opponents on the defensive by attacking what he sees as weaknesses. In 2016, Mrs Clinton spoke about sexual misconduct allegations that had dogged Mr Trump for years.
Then, in 2020, he was embroiled in corruption allegations surrounding Biden's son, Hunter, who had just been convicted of three gun-related felonies in a trial that exposed his struggle with drug addiction.
President Biden
Not again
In 2020, Biden tried to throw Trump off his guard and defuse the barrage of attacks and allegations by smiling broadly and laughing loudly while he spoke. But even as he laughed, Biden delivered some scathing one-liners that reverberated after the debate.
As Trump continued to try to link Biden to the policies of liberal Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Biden mocked Trump: “He's a very confused man who thinks he's running against somebody else. He's running against Joe Biden.”
And after Trump repeatedly interrupted him during the first debate, an annoyed Biden turned to moderator Chris Wallace and asked, “Can you just shut up for a second?”
In both debates, Biden frequently turned away from his opponent to speak directly into the cameras. “There's a reason why he brings up this nonsense,” he said during one. “He doesn't want to talk about the real issues. It's not about his family or my family. It's about your family, and your family is hurting badly.”
It's a very deliberate decision Biden and his advisers are making going into the debate, and it's likely to be made clear. “The debate audience is watching on television,” Bedingfield said. “One of the biggest differences between Biden and Trump is his humanity and his empathy.”
Play by the rules
Biden is a product of the political establishment, and he tries to play by the rules that have grown up in Washington for more than 40 years: answer questions (most of the time), stick to time limits (most of the time), don't interrupt the moderator (most of the time).
As Trump took the stage for their first debate, Biden greeted his opponent with a warm smile, as if they were two veteran local politicians starting a town hall debate. “How's it going?”
And playing by the rules allows Trump to be provocative and defiant, trying to unsettle his opponents in the most traditional ways: by demanding that he release his taxes or accusing him of mishandling the coronavirus pandemic.
“We're heading into a dark winter. A dark winter. And he doesn't have a clear plan,” Biden said.
“I don't think it's going to be a dark winter at all,” Trump replied.
Looking back can be a useful way to predict the future. But it's been a long four years. The world has changed, the country has changed, and these two have four more years of baggage and life lessons to carry with them. And you can bet the Biden-Trump debate teams have been watching the same videotapes in recent weeks and drawing many of the same lessons.
Video Research and Production Christina Kelso