The far-right Alternative for Germany party was poised for a great year.
Until recently, the party, known as AfD, had a national approval rating of nearly 25 percent, and with European elections looming and elections in its three traditional eastern strongholds in the country, the party seemed poised to achieve a key goal: to break out from the fringe into the mainstream.
Suddenly, the AfD's future seems uncertain. The party is still doing relatively well and is the country's second-most popular party. But with party members recently embroiled in controversy over espionage and patronage scandals, secret talks about deporting migrants, and extremist rhetoric, the party is facing growing backlash that threatens its ability to break into the mainstream.
Already officially classified as a “suspicious” extremist group by German authorities, the party's constant string of failures and scandals has forced it to expel even some of its most important members, leading other far-right parties abroad to shun it as well.
“This has not been a good week,” Alice Weidel, one of the party's two leaders, said at a May 25 campaign event.
The AfD is feeling the effects, having performed well in local elections in the eastern state of Thuringia last weekend, despite not receiving the overwhelming support it had hoped for.
With about a week to go before the European elections, the party's prospects look a little precarious, but opinion polls suggest it is likely to win more seats than it has in the past in both the European and state elections.
“Some who switched to the AfD have already had second thoughts,” said Manfred Gülner, director of the Forsa Institute for political opinion polling, “but the core far-right forces are not going away.”
In what may be a sign that the AfD's camels have their limits, the party last week censured its own members and barred its two leading candidates for the European Parliament elections from the campaign trail, but not from the race.
One of them, Maximilian Kurra, who recently gave interviews to the Financial Times and the Italian daily La Repubblica, expressed the view that not all members of the Nazi paramilitary SS were necessarily criminals, and the other, Petr Bystrone, is under investigation for allegedly receiving funds from Russia.
Klar declined to comment for this article, and Bystrone did not respond to a request for comment.
The party, known for its rogue members who refuse to submit, has also had a difficult time in recent months.
Klahr's comments come after weeks of making headlines after his assistant was arrested on suspicion of spying for China and his offices were searched, a scathing reassessment for a party that prides itself on being anti-corruption and ultra-nationalist.
In May, Bjorn Höcke, leader of the AfD in Thuringia, was fined 13,000 euros (about $14,000) for using a banned Nazi slogan in a 2021 speech.
But perhaps the party's most significant revelation came in January, when it emerged that AfD members had taken part in a meeting where mass deportations of immigrants, including naturalized citizens, were discussed.
The news sparked months of mass protests across the country that have seen millions rally against the AfD, whose national support has fallen from a peak of about 23 percent in December to 14 to 17 percent by some estimates, according to the latest polls.
Benjamin Höhne, a professor at Chemnitz University of Technology, said the party faces something of a strategic tightrope walk to regain momentum.
For the party to expand its influence beyond its regional strongholds and seize real power, it needs to both appease its extremist core and broaden its support among centre-right voters.
“It's a normalization strategy,” Hoehne said. “We're trying to appeal to the middle class of society, but we're not going to marginalize the right wing.”
The path has narrowed further as former Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party has moved to the right, potentially losing AfD supporters.
Additionally, a new political party called the Zahra Wagenknecht Movement, which combines populism with far-left politics, could also pose a threat.
It's a predicament that has some AfD lawmakers infuriated. “The CDU is now selling itself as the solution to a problem it created,” said Stefan Brandner, a senior AfD lawmaker.
The AfD's most vulnerable base may be voters who turned to the party for the first time out of dissatisfaction with the government or as a protest vote, but who have now lost that support after a series of scandals.
“It's this segment of the electorate that the AfD leadership is now after,” said Johannes Hillier, a German political scientist who studies the AfD. “They need to be able to mobilize a much larger force than the far-right.”
In Bavaria, where the AfD made strong gains, state parliament member Andreas Jurka said he was now seeing a backlash: around 10% of new applicants to the party in the state had withdrawn their applications in the past few months, he said.
“Last year, we managed to get into the middle class,” he said. “Now their problem is not our status, it's that we've been kind of left out.”
Last weekend's Thuringia state elections offered a mixed picture for the AfD's future, as the party performed less well than expected in key seats such as mayor and district mayor, coming in second with 26% of the vote to the CDU's 27%.
But Matthias Quende, a professor at Magdeburg-Stendal University who specializes in the far-right, said the party had won majorities in many city councils and the change could have ripple effects in the federal election.
“This is a new dimension and will change local politics,” Quentin said. Having AfD members run daily life in Thuringia could increase the party's legitimacy and influence future elections. “The aim is normalisation from below.”
Tatiana Firsova contributed reporting.
