As the conflict between India and Pakistan escalated, Vice President JD Vance told Fox News on Thursday that “it's basically none of our business.” He suggested that the United States could advise both sides, but this was not an American battle.
However, within 24 hours, Vance and Marco Rubio found themselves in detail in their first week in the dual roles of national security advisors and secretary of state. The reason for this was the same as Bill Clinton that drove all the presidents to deal with another major conflict between two longtime enemies in 1999. I fear that it might soon become the core.
What led Vance and Rubio to action was evidence that Pakistan and Indian air forces began to engage in serious dog fights and that Pakistan sent 300 to 400 drones to Indian territory to investigate air defense. However, the most important cause of concern came late on Friday when the explosion hit Nur Khan Air Force Base in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, a parking lot for the rison area adjacent to Islamabad.
The base is an important installation, one of the Pakistani military's central transport hubs and home to air refueling capabilities to alienate Pakistani fighter jets. However, it is only a short distance from the headquarters of Pakistan's Strategic Planning Division and oversees and protects the nuclear weapons of the country, which is now thought to contain more than 170 warheads. The warhead itself is estimated to be spread throughout the country.
Fierce fighting broke out between India and Pakistan after 26 people, primarily Hindu tourists, were killed in terrorist attacks in Kashmir, the border area that both countries allegedly claimed on April 22. On Saturday morning, President Trump announced that both countries had agreed to a ceasefire.
One former American official familiar with Pakistan's nuclear programme noted on Saturday that Pakistan's deepest fear was fearful that nuclear command authorities were beheaded. The missile strike against Nurkan could have been interpreted, a former official said as a warning that India could do just that.
It is unclear whether there was a US intelligence agency pointing to a rapid, and perhaps nuclear escalation of the conflict. The only part of obvious nuclear signaling, at least in public, came from Pakistan. Local media reported that Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif had summoned a meeting of state command authorities.
Founded in 2000, the body is nominally chaired by the Prime Minister and includes a senior civilian minister and military chief. In reality, the driving force behind the group is General Syed Asim Munir, the chief of the army.
However, Pakistan's defense minister, Kawaja Muhammad Asif, denied that the group had met before. Speaking on Pakistani television on Saturday before the ceasefire was announced, he acknowledged the existence of nuclear choice, but said, “We should treat it as a very distant possibility. We should not discuss it.”
Although being discussed at the Pentagon, by Friday morning the White House had made clear that some official statements and some calls to staff in Islamabad and Delhi were not sufficient. Interventions by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had little effect.
In an interview with Fox News, Vance said, “Whenever a nuclear power is clashing and there is a big conflict, I'm worried.” He added, “What we can do is encourage these people to deinduce a bit.”
After that interview, serious concerns arose in the administration that there was a risk that the conflict was out of control, according to those familiar with the unauthorized unauthorized event.
The pace of strikes and counter strikes was picking up. India initially focused on what was called “known terror camps” related to Rashkar e Tayba, the extremist group that condemned the April attack, but it was now targeting military bases in Pakistan.
The Trump administration was also concerned that the message to remove the escalation had not reached the top staff on either side.
Therefore, US officials have decided that Vance, who has returned a few weeks before a trip to India with his parents, his wife Usha, an Indian immigrant, should call Prime Minister Narendra Modi in person. His message was that the US was valuing it as a high probability of a dramatic escalation of violence that could lead to full-scale war.
By the American account, Vance asked Modi to consider alternatives to continued strikes, including off-ramps that US officials may believe will be acceptable to Pakistanis. Modi listened, but he didn't commit to any of the ideas.
Rubio spoke with General Munir, according to the State Department. This is a conversation that has been made easier by her new role as a national security advisor. Over the past quarter century, the White House has quietly served as a direct waterway to the country's most powerful institution, the Pakistani army.
Rubio was also called Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishak Dal and S. jaishankar, Indian Nationalist Foreign Minister, whom he met in Washington on January 22nd.
At least at first, it's not clear how convincing he is.
The State Department did not brief the press on Saturday about the contents of those calls, and instead issued a description of the naked bones of conversation that did not give a sense of dynamics between Rubio and South Asian leaders. However, the constant flow of calls from Friday evening to early Saturday seemed to lay the foundation for a ceasefire.
Pakistani Intelligence Director, who was not permitted to publicly comment on the negotiations, acknowledged the involvement of Americans over the past 48 hours, particularly Rubio's intervention. However, as of Saturday night, there were reports that shootings were continuing across the border.
Prime Minister Sharif emphasized his focus on the role of the US president. “President Trump appreciates his leadership and active role in the region,” he wrote to X: “Pakistan is grateful to the US for promoting this outcome.
In contrast, India did not recognize US involvement.
It is not clear that a ceasefire will be held or that the damages inflicted may not cause more retaliation. Pakistan defeated five Indian planes with several accounts. (The Indian side has not commented on the loss.)
Pakistan's intelligence agency said it assessed India as trying to bore Islamabad and surpass its defensive response. India wanted Pakistan to use its own F-16 fighter jets to shoot them down in a retaliatory attack, officials said. The Jets were sold by the US as Pakistan is still considered the “major non-nat alley.”
Pakistan's senior intelligence officer said US intervention was necessary to pull both sides back from the brink of war.
“The last move comes from the president,” the official said.
