Iranian state media reported Saturday that a reformist critical of Iran's law requiring women to wear headscarves will face a hard-line conservative candidate in a presidential runoff next week, following a special vote held after the former president was killed in a helicopter crash last month.
The second round, pitting reformist Massoud Pezeshkian against ultra-conservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, will take place on July 5. The runoff election was spurred in part by low voter turnout and a tight race with four candidates competing for the conservative vote against three others. Under Iranian law, the winner must receive at least 50 percent of the votes cast.
Amid ongoing international and domestic turmoil, a second round of voting would likely further drain an already disengaged electorate disgruntled with its leaders. Iran's economy has plummeted under harsh Western sanctions, its citizens' freedoms have become increasingly restricted and its foreign policy is largely shaped by its hardline leaders.
The race, which initially featured six candidates — five conservatives and one reformist — was notable for its frank discussion of these issues and for its public willingness to challenge the status quo. In speeches, television debates and roundtable discussions, the candidates criticized government policies and ridiculed the government's optimistic assessment of Iran's economic prospects as a harmful delusion.
Public dissatisfaction with the new president's ability to bring about change was reflected in the low turnout in the election: just 40 percent of eligible voters cast a ballot, according to the Iranian state news agency.
In the official results released on Saturday, Dr Pezeshkian came in first with 10.4 million votes (42.4%), followed by Mr Jalili with 9.4 million votes (38.6%). A third conservative candidate, General Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, current speaker of parliament and former mayor of Tehran, came in a distant third with 3.3 million votes (13.8%).
The low turnout will be a blow to the country's ruling clergy, who saw voter participation as an indicator of the legitimacy of the vote and had hoped for a 50 percent turnout.
Over coffee on Saturday in a northern Tehran neighborhood, a group of men discussed the results and the prospects for a runoff. One of them, Farzad Jafari, 36, predicted a higher turnout in the next vote. He and others also discussed whether Mr. Jalili would be able to rally the conservative vote in a head-to-head contest, or whether more voters would back the reformist option proposed by Dr. Pezeshkian.
“All these people were allowed to run and are under government control, so we're not going to see a lot of change,” Jafari said. “If Dr. Pezeshkian wins, it may not make much difference, but all we can do is hope,” he added.
In addition to pressures at home, Iran's leaders face a particularly volatile period in the region, with Israel's war in Gaza between the Iran-backed militant group Hamas and escalating skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah pitting two of Iran's proxy forces against arch-rival Israel.
Despite their critical comments on the campaign trail, all of the candidates were members of Iran's political establishment, whose candidacy was approved by a committee of Islamic clerics and jurists. All except Dr. Pezeshkian were considered conservatives close to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator, is likely to be the closest candidate to Khamenei. He heads the far-right Paidari Party and represents Iran's most hardline ideological views on domestic and foreign policy. Jalili has said he doesn't think Iran needs to negotiate with the United States for economic success.
Dr. Pezeshkian is a cardiac surgeon and veteran of the Iran-Iraq War who served as a member of parliament and Iran's health minister. After his wife and child died in a car accident, he raised his other children as a single father and has never remarried. This, along with his identity as an Azerbaijani, one of Iran's ethnic minorities, endeared him to many voters.
Pezeshkian, who has the backing of former President Mohammed Khatami, has framed the nuclear deal as an economic issue and voiced a willingness to negotiate with the West, but a head-to-head runoff election could make his path to the presidency more complicated, as conservative votes are no longer split among several candidates.
By manipulating the odds to improve the conservatives' chances of victory, Khamenei has signaled that he wants a vice president who reflects his own thinking and continues the policies of hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash last month near the border with Azerbaijan.
The low turnout reflects widespread apathy among Iranians, who also saw record low voter turnout in this year's parliamentary elections. This discontent has been fuelled by the government's violent crackdown on protesters calling for reform and its inadequate response to the damage decades of sanctions have done to the country's economy and sapped Iranians' purchasing power.
The recent anti-government protests and subsequent crackdown were primarily sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in custody in 2022 after she was detained by police for improperly wearing the mandatory headscarf (hijab).
Acknowledging the unpopularity of the compulsory hijab law, all the candidates sought to distance themselves from the means the country's morality policy uses to enforce it, including violence, arrests and fines.
The mandatory headscarf was a campaign issue, but it is unlikely the law will be repealed and there are doubts about whether the new president will be able to ease enforcement. Protests organized mainly by women have sparked a bloody crackdown on Khamenei's orders, and analysts say he is expected to enforce his policies.
This is primarily because Iran is a theocracy with a parallel system of governance in which elected institutions are overseen by an appointed council of Islamic clerics and jurists. Major national policy on nuclear, military and foreign affairs is determined by the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
While the presidential role focuses on domestic policy and economic issues, it is still an influential position. Previous presidents have played an active role in conducting foreign policy, including the 2015 deal with the United States in which Iran agreed to shelve its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
The deal was abandoned by the Trump administration in 2018, and Iran resumed enriching uranium. In addition to tensions over Iran's nuclear program, the United States and Iran have come ever closer to a direct confrontation over the past year as they compete for influence across the Middle East.
In Gaza, the war between U.S. ally Israel and Hamas has drawn the U.S., Iran and its foreign proxies into an even more violent conflict. Iran has used these groups as a means to expand its own power, but many residents, especially in urban areas, see little value in the leaders' strategy and believe the economy can only recover through sustained diplomacy.
Rayleigh Niconazar Contributed report.