President Trump says he is focusing on stopping Ukraine's “death march” “as soon as possible.”
But for Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, ceasefire talks with Trump are a much broader tool of ends.
Russian and American officials are scheduled to meet in Saudi Arabia on Monday to deepen negotiations on technical details of a partial ceasefire to halt attacks on energy facilities and Black Sea ships. Although Ukraine says it is ready for a complete ceasefire, Putin made it clear that he will first seek broad concessions.
Results: Despite the slow walk of negotiations, the Kremlin appears to be determined to narrow down as much profit as possible from Trump's desire for a Ukrainian peace deal. From Moscow's perspective, a better relationship with Washington is an economic and geopolitical benefit. This could be achieved even if Russian missiles continue to smash Ukraine.
An interview with figures from a senior Russian diplomat at a security conference in New Delhi last week suggested that the Kremlin saw negotiations that Ukraine, the US-Russia ties were being carried out on two separate tracks. Putin continues to seek widespread victory in Ukraine, but he has the driving force behind Trump's ceasefire in order to seize the benefits of thawing with Washington.
Vyakeslav Nikonov, vice-chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee for Russian House members of the Russian parliament, said Trump and Putin are developing a “bilateral agenda” that has “no relation to Ukraine.”
“Ukraine runs that course,” Nikonov said in an interview with the bystanders of the New Delhi Conference, known as the Reishna Dialogue. “The attack is ongoing,” Nikonov added. “But for Putin, I think that relations with the US are more important than the issue of Ukraine.”
The Moscow idea of ​​engagement with Trump can unlock basic basic economic interests for the Russian Boeing Jet spare parts and the decline in the presence of NATO in Europe. What's less clear is whether Trump will use those hopes as leverage to get a better deal in Ukraine, and whether he will at some point lose patience with Putin.
“Trump likes quick deals,” said Alexander A. Dynakin, an international affairs expert who advises the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “If he thinks there are big challenges, he might be disappointed and put this issue aside.”
As a result, Putin appears to have pulled out all the stops to attract Trump's interest.
Putin, who met White House envoy Steve Witkov in Moscow this month, handed over a “beautiful portrait of President Trump,” commissioned by a Russian artist, Witkov said in an interview released on Saturday.
“It was a very elegant moment,” Witkoff told former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.
In Ukraine, Putin shows no signs of ud extension from his broader goals. It is a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO, which has some influence over Ukrainian national politics, as well as some degree of influence on Ukrainian domestic politics.
Feodor Voitolovsky, director of the Institute of World Economic Research and International Relations in Moscow, said Russia would seek a “roadmap” for broader deals before agreeing to a ceasefire.
He also said that Russia could accept Ukraine's UN peacekeeping forces, unless it includes troops from NATO countries.
“For Russia, the long-term perspective is more valuable than a tactical ceasefire,” said Voitolovsky, who serves as an advisory board for the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Security Council. “We can emerge in a model that allows Russia and the US, and Russia and NATO to coexist without interfering with the territory of each other's interests,” he added.
To achieve such a transaction, Russia appeals to Trump's business-oriented focus. Voitolovsky argued that the broad agreement over Ukraine is a prerequisite for US-Russia cooperation, and that Trump, “as a businessman,” understands that Russian assets are currently undervalued.
Dynakin, an expert on Russian international affairs, said the Kremlin could remove the US from its list of “unfriendly countries.” This is a classification that limits the ability of American companies to do business in Russia.
He said he is particularly interested in negotiations on the aviation sector given the challenges Moscow faces when serving American-made jets. The US could allow the export of spare parts for planes and revive direct flights to Moscow, he said. In Russia, American Airlines was able to fly Siberia. This is the right that Russia withdrew in 2022.
Anastasia Rikhacheva, dean of international affairs at a Moscow high school, said it is unlikely that Trump will achieve prompt and widespread sanctions relief.
However, she said thawing of relations with the US could lead to a decrease in sanctions enforcement, making it easier for Russian companies to operate globally by sending signals that Russia is no longer a problematic partner.
“Detox like this,” she said, “it could be useful and would expand the menu of possibilities.”
