Anger among American youth over the Israel-Hamas war has dominated political conversation for weeks. Democratic and Republican lawmakers have been making pilgrimages to Columbia University and other campuses to offer support and condemn demonstrations in solidarity with Gaza, and President Biden addressed the unrest in his remarks Thursday. did.
But recent polling shows that these headlines don't reflect young voters' biggest concerns this election year. Surveys conducted in recent months have shown that young voters are more likely to sympathize with Palestinians embroiled in the conflict, with the Israeli-Hamas war a top issue in the 2024 election. Very few people mention it. Like other voters, young people often put economic concerns at the top of their list.
Young voters are also more indifferent toward Biden than they were at the same time in 2020, but there is no evidence that U.S. support for Israel's invasion of Gaza is a decisive factor in their relative dissatisfaction. rare.
“When you have two presidents who take the same position on an issue, that issue automatically goes down the list. I don't want to say put it down the list because it's clearly an important issue. “No, but that doesn't make it a problem for me. I would choose Donald Trump over Joe Biden,” said Devon Schwartz, a student at the University of Texas at Austin.
Schwartz, 19, a student of Muslim and Jewish descent who is active in a campus group that promotes interfaith dialogue, called the campus protests that led to the police crackdown a “historic moment.” I thought so. And he said he wished he had had the opportunity to vote for a candidate “more progressive on Israel” than Biden in November. But he plans to vote for him anyway.
“I want to see Joe Biden change his policies,” he said. “I voted for Donald Trump and I don’t want to see the exact same policies.”
American sympathy for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has slowly shifted toward the Palestinians over the past decade. According to Gallup, 51% of Americans remain sympathetic to Israelis, but 27% now feel more sympathetic to Palestinians, up from 12% in 2013.
This change is generational in nature, perhaps due not only to changes in the conflict itself and the rightward shift in Israeli politics, but also to the efforts of pro-Palestinian activists to link their cause to movements within the United States such as Mr. Black's. It is highly likely that the past 10 years have also been reflected. Lives Matter and the Divest from Israel campaign are making inroads on college campuses.
A new poll from the Pew Research Center found that 18- to 29-year-olds are three times more likely to sympathize with Palestinians in the conflict than those 65 and older and twice as likely as all adults.
“As you can see from the people protesting, not everyone is passionate about this issue,” said Laura Silver, associate director of global research at Pew. “But 18- to 29-year-olds are very different from older Americans.”
Recent polls show that this sympathy has not yet translated into prioritizing war as a voting issue in 2024.
A Harvard Institute of Politics youth poll conducted just before last month's wave of campus protests and crackdowns found that Americans ages 18 to 29 overwhelmingly blamed Biden for his handling of the Gaza conflict. , 76% disapproved. And 18% agreed. But while 27% of respondents said they were most concerned about economic issues, only 2% rated economic issues as their top election concern.
A recent Economist/YouGov poll conducted in late April found that 22% of voters aged 18 to 29 named inflation as the most important issue. 2% cited foreign policy as their top concern. (The poll did not specifically ask about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.)
“My friends and I are very concerned about the wars in the Middle East, and we disagree with the Biden administration's policies in the region,” said Coral Lin, 20, a student at Duke University. She said she has one friend who voted “irresponsibly” in the Democratic primary to protest the issue.
“But I still know many people who hold those views and are still voting for Biden,” she said, citing her own concerns about the climate and the threat Trump poses to democracy. She noted that this belief in delivering results led her to continue voting for Biden. I support Mr. Biden.
Clara Getty, a 21-year-old University of Virginia student and Biden supporter, faces a similar predicament to Lyndon B. Johnson in the 1968 Democratic primary, despite facing outrage over the Vietnam War. He said he is doing so. “I think he could have benefited greatly from his second term because he made such great strides on domestic issues,” she said. “And I think Biden is similar in many ways.”
Others argue that even if the Gaza conflict does not lead to a mass exodus of young voters to Mr. Trump, it could be a problem for Mr. Biden if young people don't vote.
“I'm hearing from a lot of people who are becoming increasingly uninterested in voting for Joe Biden,” says Cameron Driggers, 19, a University of Florida student and member of the state Democratic Youth Committee. .
Driggers, who is an organizer for the Divest Israel Campaign on campus, said that Biden's 2024 victory will depend on more than just votes and youth organizing, including many young people who have actively participated in protest politics around Gaza. He pointed out that people would also be needed.
“He's basically been spitting in the face of youth organizations across the country,” he said. “He's particularly infuriating people who go to the polls.”
Biden campaign spokeswoman Mia Ehrenberg said in a statement that the campaign is investing in campus organizers and youth groups, and that it will continue to focus on “issues that young voters care about,” such as climate change. “We will continue to communicate with them and communicate with them.” Change, gun control, student loans.
The Biden administration recently announced further changes to student loan forgiveness, with Biden directing his administration to consider reclassifying marijuana as a less serious drug. At exactly 4:20 p.m. on April 20, his campaign advertised his position against X.
Mr. Driggers said he was widely supportive of Mr. Biden even before the invasion of Gaza, citing liberalization of cannabis policies, support for workers' rights, and withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. But his support was being tested by Gaza.
“I recognize that President Trump will almost certainly do worse than Biden on all of these issues,” he said. “But at some point, there has to be a line for Biden.” “And I believe he's about to cross that threshold soon.”