International relations are rarely considered in local Canadian politics. And then Thursday's local elections in Ontario. Many voters are worried about issues close to their homes, such as access to healthcare and rising housing prices, and it should have been no exception.
But President Trump overturned election dynamics.
His threat to Canada — including imposing crushing tariffs on Canadian exports and annexing the country — is being cast as the decisive election issue in Ontario, Canada's most populous state, as voters head to polls on Thursday.
“This election is about who we are and what we do,” Prime Minister Doug Ford, a conservative leader in Ontario, said in a campaign ad. “So let me be clear. Canada will not be the 51st state. Canada is not for sale.”
The 16 million provinces, which make up about 40% of Canada's population, have several major industries in the country, including automobiles, manufacturing and technology. The tariffs will take a deep, painful blow to the state, including serious unemployment.
Since Ford called the election a month ago, he has spent several days traveling to Washington from the campaign trail, claiming why tariffs are getting worse.
Several polls show Ford is leading his closest rival in double digits, showing that voters view him as the best candidate to assume Trump.
Who is running?
Ford is the leader of Ontario's progressive Conservative Party and was first elected in 2018. That year, Ford, 60, won the majority government after 15 years of Liberal control on a platform focused on tax cuts such as mining in the northern state and developing major industries.
Ford, the son of a businessman who was also a local politician, rose through party politics by selling himself as an anti-establishment candidate, comparing him to Trump in his first premiership campaign.
Before becoming Ontario leader, Ford served as a city council member in Toronto, and his brother, Rob Ford, was the mayor who attracted international notoriety after confessing to using crack cocaine. He passed away in 2016.
Polls show that Ford's political opponents – liberal Bonnie Crombie and progressive New Democrat Marit Styles, failed to win the ground.
Cronby, former mayor of Mississauga, a city west of Toronto, focuses on healthcare. She is seeking to add 3,100 doctors to Ontario over the next four years to ensure that all Ontarians have their primary care physicians, increase nursing salaries and maintain hospital expansion.
After four years as a councillor for the Toronto School Board, Stiles has underscored education improvements, committed to working with the school repair backlog and depriving millions of people of her body.
What are the factors behind Trump?
The race mainly combines the question of which candidates can protect the economy in the face of tariffs.
Trump said he plans to apply a 25% tariff on Canadian exports unless Canada tightens border security. Trump and Canada agreed to a 30-day grace period that expires Tuesday after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau agreed to adopt various measures to strengthen the border.
Ford predicts strength, regularly appears at newspaper conferences wearing baseball caps that read “Canada is not on sale,” threatening to retaliate against the United States by blocking out the energy they buy from Ontario.
While conservatives already held most of the state legislature seats, Ford called for an early election more than a year before the scheduled date in June 2026 – he said the party needs to need a “strong order” from voters to fight Trump's tariffs.
However, his opponents questioned Ford's timing, noting that if tariffs were imposed, he supported additional spending to help Ontarians deal with the economic distress caused by the tax, making early election unnecessary.
They also pointed out that although Ford could take retaliatory measures himself, the federal government would become the main negotiating party with Trump's administration rather than Ontario.
This tariff could cost as much as 500,000 employees, especially in the state's automotive industry. There, production is very intertwined with the US, with auto parts crossing the border multiple times a day during gatherings.
What is the problem?
While tariff debate dominates the campaign, candidates are also raising domestic issues such as health costs, transportation and education.
According to the nonprofit University of Family Medicines in Ontario, all candidates are committed to improving healthcare access in provinces where 2.5 million people do not have family doctors due to a severe shortage of doctors.
In housing, candidates emphasize the need for developers to increase buildings and reduce construction costs.
He's a teetorah, but Ford was obsessed with liquor dating back to his first campaign when he promised to cut alcohol costs. Now Ford has pledged to remove the lowest cost of alcohol, claiming it will motivate liquor sellers to lower prices to compete.
Some critics have also questioned the close relationship between Ford and the developer.
Plans to open green spaces, forests and wetlands around Toronto, known as the Green Belt, are being developed and under investigation by state police.
When will you know the outcome?
Voting opens at 9am and the 9pm results will be featured in elections on the Ontario website, but may come soon after the votes are over.
