The verdict on the presidential primary is already in, but we're just beginning to get the best data on how it will affect the general election.
That data is voting history, an individual record of who voted and who did not vote. It provides a definitive explanation of the makeup of the electorate, and suggests that the primary results will favor Mr. Biden, given whether Nikki Haley's voters have already supported President Biden. It will help answer some of the most important questions of the primary season, from whether or not to. than the polls suggest.
Last week, we got our first big piece of historical voting data from Georgia, a place where we conducted recent state polls.
That suggests, at least here, that most Hailey voters already supported Biden in 2020. It also suggests that Biden's strength in the primaries is consistent with polling showing him struggling among young voters and black voters.
Haley vote in Georgia
Haley won 13.2% of the vote in Georgia's Republican primary. While this may not have been a far cry from a win, it could easily become a major headache for Donald J. Trump if any Republican is dissatisfied with former President Trump.
Voting history data offers some clues that suggest Mr. Trump doesn't have much to worry about here, or at least no new worries. Most of these voters already supported Biden in the 2020 election and will continue to support him in 2024.
There are two lines of evidence that support this idea.
The first comes from historical voting data from Georgia's previous partisan primaries. The data shows that about 10% of voters in this month's Republican primary have voted in a Democratic primary in the past eight years, making it more likely that they were Democrats who voted in a Republican race. This is a good indicator that something is going on. These voters likely supported Haley by a wide margin.
The second comes from an October Times/Siena survey of Georgia that was matched against new voting history records. Respondents who voted in the recent Republican presidential primary said they voted for Trump over Biden in 2020 by a margin of 82% to 12%, a figure that voters claim will vote in November. The numbers were almost the same. Both tallies reflect Trump's 85-13 victory in the Georgia primary.
The similarities between the Republican primary results and the poll responses of Republican primary voters suggest that much of Trump's weakness in the primaries was simply due to a tendency to support Biden already in 2020 and 2024. It suggests that it comes from people.
Among staunch Republicans, Trump remains in a strong position. He had a 94-2 lead over Biden among Republican primary voters who identified as Republicans in a Times-Siena poll. Similarly, he held a 91-3 lead among Republican primary voters who did not vote in the recent Democratic primary.
What about Biden?
This year's Democratic primaries were not competitive, and Georgia was no exception. Overall, President Biden won 95% of the vote in Georgia, one of the highest numbers in the nation.
Unsurprisingly, a Times-Siena poll last fall found no evidence of serious dissent among these voters. Among Times and Siena respondents who voted in the Democratic primary over the four-month period, Biden had a 96-0 lead over Trump. later.
What's interesting is that the Times/Siena poll found plenty of evidence of Democratic opposition among broad groups of registered voters. In-person voting in Georgia in October showed Trump leading Biden by 6 points, with Biden holding a 76-19 lead among black voters overall. (In 2020, he won about 90% of Georgia's black vote.)
So why did Biden win decisively, even though polls showed him doing relatively poorly? According to historical voting data, the answer is simple. The people who voted in the Democratic primary are very different from the broader group of registered voters, and their views on Mr. Biden are also very different.
Overall, only 4% of registered voters voted in the Democratic primary. Nearly half were over 65 years old. Only 5% were under 30 years old. This group of older, more committed Democrats turned out to be fiercely loyal to Mr. Biden.
This is especially clear when looking at Biden's support among black voters, who make up more than a quarter of Georgia's voters.
Remarkably, the black voters who were flattered by Trump in the October poll – those who said they would choose Trump in November 2024 – were more likely to vote for him in November 2024, whether in the Republican primary or against his Democratic opponent. , I ended up not voting in the primary. The Times/Siena poll showed Biden with a 96-0 lead among self-identified black voters in the March 12 primary, and a 74-21 lead among all other black voters. Despite Trump's support in polls, only about 5% of black primary voters decided to vote in the Republican primary, according to state voter records.
This isn't the first time we've seen a large disparity between primary voters and other voters. Mr. Biden has struggled among undocumented youth and nonwhite voters, contributing to Mr. Trump's narrow lead among registered voters nationwide, according to Times/Siena data. At the same time, Mr. Trump is faring poorly among committed voters, including those voting in special elections.
Biden has major weaknesses in the polls, but his problems will not be tested in the low-turnout primary. General elections are when irregular voters tend to show up.
