The Sweet 16 field is set up pretty much as expected, but with a few twists.
The left side of the bracket (Albany 1 and Portland 4 regions) includes all seeds 1 through 4, and the lower seeds on the right side (Albany 2 and Portland 3 regions) include the 5th and 7th seeds. It is included. .
Will there be more chaos at regionals? Will the top seeds continue to thrive? We are here to analyze the matchups and provide predictions.
(all eastern)
Friday
Albany 1 | 2:30 p.m. | ESPN
The matchup between the Fighting Irish and Beavers is one of contrasting styles. Powered by star freshman guard Hannah Hidalgo and an aggressive zone defense, Notre Dame likes to up the tempo and score in transition. The Irish are in the 90th percentile for pace and are second nationally in fast break point percentage, according to CBB Analytics. Hidalgo alone averaged 7.5 fast-break points per game this season. It's all a far cry from how Oregon is thriving this year. By comparison, the Beavers are in the 19th percentile in pace and fast break points per game, giving him only 5.4 points. Offensively, he is effective near the rim and from his 3-point shot. The tandem of junior guard Talia von Olhoffen and sophomore forward Regan Beers is especially difficult to stop.
How the Beavers contain Hidalgo and guard Sonia Citron will also be crucial, especially considering the Irish often only use six players a game. Friday will likely be an advantage for the team that will dictate the flow of the contest. However, Notre Dame showed that it can get results in the half court, even if the game was delayed in OSU's favor. The Irish thrive especially in shot clock opportunities in the second half. Hidalgo may be a freshman, but he will make a case for being the most impactful player on the floor.
choose: Notre Dame Cathedral
— Ben Pickman
Albany 1 | 5pm | ESPN
The Hoosiers had a blowout win against Oklahoma State on Monday night in a close game that featured 21 lead changes and 10 ties. In the end, forward Mackenzie Holmes was sensational for the Hoosiers, scoring a game-high 29 points. Guard Sidney Parrish added 17 points and the Hoosiers advanced to the Sweet 16 for the third time in the past four seasons.
However, from here it gets more difficult. The Hoosiers will face undefeated South Carolina, which just defeated North Carolina by almost 50 (!) points and remains the favorite to win the championship. How will the Hoosiers stop star center Camila Cardoso? IU's tallest player, Ariel Withen, is still two inches shorter than Camila Cardoso at 6-foot-7 and averages just 1.8 minutes per game. Holmes and Yarden Garzon, the Hoosiers' tallest starters, are both 6-3. IU also ranks 316th nationally in 3-point defense, which is an issue for the Shamcocks as opposing team Tehena Paopao is knocking down 46.7 percent of their shots from deep.
choose: South Carolina
— Grace Rayner
Don't blink when two people are near!! 👀 @Tinapaopa0 @kamillascsilva pic.twitter.com/4P331tTcwX
— South Carolina Women's Basketball (@GamecockWBB) March 24, 2024
3rd place North Carolina State University vs. 2nd place Stanford University
Portland 4 | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN
In North Carolina State's 79-72 win over No. 6 seed Tennessee, the Wolfpack committed a season-low four turnovers. Guards Saniyah Rivers, Asiaha James and Zoe Brooks all dictated the tempo of the game and were great in scoring, combining for 58 points. The top priority for the Cardinal is to slow down the North Carolina guard. Like previous Stanford teams, this year's group is cautious on both fronts. The Cardinal are allowing just 5.3 steals per game and scoring just 6.5 points in transition. Instead, they rely on an efficient half-court offense with Cameron Brink and Kiki Eliafen serving as the fulcrum to keep the play going.
The Wolfpack had a tough time guarding Tennessee's Rikea Jackson in the Sweet 16, adding 33 points and 10 rebounds from the likely WNBA lottery pick. Their next challenge will be limiting Iriafen, who scored a career-high 41 points, but that's a daunting task. Expect a low-turnover game with a focus on possession. If Stanford can limit NC State's wings, it should have a solid chance to advance to the Elite 8 for the fourth straight year.
choose: Stanford
— Pickman
Portland 4 | 10pm | ESPN
The Bulldogs played seven tournament teams in the regular season and went 7-2, including an 18-point victory over Stanford in December. Gonzaga proved to be a seasoned team by defeating the fifth-seeded Utes 77-66 in the second round and advancing to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2015.
The Bulldogs are tied for second in the nation with a 39.8 3-point shooting percentage. They beat Utah by making 12 of 22 shots. Gonzaga University had five players averaging double-digit points, led by Yvonne Ejim with 20 points, and scattered the ball. The Zags may have another advantage. The game in Portland is only six hours from campus, so Bulldogs fans should be in attendance in droves.
Post-match scene 🥹 pic.twitter.com/HaDL7rOoHQ
— Gonzaga Women's Basketball (@ZagWBB) March 26, 2024
But none of that may be enough to stop Texas. Texas' mettle was tested earlier this season after Lori Harmon went down with a season-ending knee injury. The Longhorns' dominant offense, led by star freshman Madison Booker (16.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg), is averaging 112.5 points per 100 possessions, according to HerHoopStats. You can expect interesting battles between teams that can score points. He averages 81.2 points per game for both teams. Junior Aaliyah Moore had a double-double against Alabama. Among tournament teams, Texas' 40 boards per game rank him fifth in rebounding, and his 42.2% offensive rebound percentage ranks him second among tournament teams, according to HerHoopsStats.
choose: Texas
— Shannon Ryan
Saturday
3rd place LSU vs. 2nd place UCLA
Albany 2 | 1pm | ABC
The defending champions were locked in a battle against MTSU for two and a half quarters until Frauge Johnson started the offense. The Bruins found themselves in an even bigger hole in the second half, but also relied on sophomore guard Kiki Rice to help turn things around. Now, the two powerhouses ranked 1st and 3rd in The Athletic's preseason power rankings will face off in the Sweet 16.
It was because of matchups like this that Albany 2 was considered death territory. LSU won it all last year, and currently has SEC Player of the Year and Newcomer of the Year honors, as well as the title being given to him as a four-time head coach (well, a little more distracted than usual). ). The Tigers also brought in this year's No. 1 class of rookies. The Bruins will compete with the top class of 2022, which includes Lauren Betts, and Charisma Osborne, who is scheduled to be a first-round draft pick.
See you in the Sweet 16 👋#MarchMadness X @uclawbb pic.twitter.com/cvXjojBMN6
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessWBB) March 26, 2024
The matchup between Angel Reese and Betts will be an appointment viewing. Betts has size and is more refined in the post, but no one works as hard as Reese, who fights every inch of the post. Osborn will be tasked with protecting Johnson and especially keeping the star sophomore from getting loose in transition, but he's used to difficult matchups. UCLA's advantage could be at point guard, with Rice being bigger and more physical than Haley Van Lith, forcing LSU to acquire Last Tier Pore for that defensive prowess. There is a possibility that
The Tigers have the advantage in terms of experience, but the Bruins are deeper and arguably more talented. UCLA has beaten teams as good or better than LSU in the regular season, but the Tigers have faced similar characters before in the NCAA Tournament.
choose: LSU
– Sabrina Merchant
Albany 2 | 3:30pm | ABC
It's always fun when the committee plans a rematch. When it came to this particular game, the Hawkeyes likely saw a familiar opponent either way. The Hawkeyes defeated the Buffs in the Sweet 16 last year and split a game with Kansas State this season. But that familiarity is evident when Iowa State coach Lisa Bruder and Colorado State coach J.R. Payne do head fakes at each other and dive into each other's (already understood) weaknesses. , which means you're more likely to see them make interesting expressions.
Considering how much Iowa State struggled against West Virginia's physically pressuring defense, it would be reasonable to expect Colorado to mount a similar attack. The Buffs are in the top 25 nationally in steal percentage, and his conversions add to his offensive power. Nearly one in five of his points come from fast breaks (15 points per game). Almost half of the points come in the paint between guard Jaylin Sherrod going downhill (or pulling up in the midrange) and 6-3 forwards Aaronette Vonleh and Quay Miller.
Iowa is coming off one of its worst offensive performances of the season and will look to bounce back after scoring just 64 points and dishing out a season-low seven assists against West Virginia. Caitlin Clark will be the headliner this time around, but it will be the committee around her that will truly determine how far Iowa advances in March (and possibly April). Outside of Clark, the Hawkeyes made 0-of-17 3-pointers against the Mountaineers, but don't expect this cold spell to last long. Colorado has its own three-point shooting weapons in Frieda Forman and Maddie Nolan (both shooting over 42 percent from long range), but they want to prove they're much better than last time. An outing that may not be enough against the Hawkeyes' arsenal.
choose: Iowa
— Chantel Jennings
Portland 3 | 5:30 p.m. | ESPN
Two coaches with professional experience (Lindsay Gottlieb in the NBA and Nikki Collen in the WNBA) roam the sidelines at USC and Baylor, creating offenses with pro-style concepts and spacing. The defense could struggle to defend, at least initially, as both teams explore each other's feelings.
Other than the incredible talent of JuJu Watkins, USC's main advantage is its size. The Trojans are big at every position and protect the paint well with the duo of Raya Marshall and Kaitlyn Daves. If the Bears force USC into the paint, Baylor will be physically overwhelmed. They need to hold the ball up front and rotate the Trojans on the other side to avoid a frontal attack of their size.
If Watkins remains disciplined on the ball and the Trojans keep Baylor out of transition, USC will be able to control the game. If they continue to attack in the paint using their length, this matchup should end in the No. 1 seed's favor.
choose: USC
– Merchant
Yes, still under consideration @jadawalkr11Last night's performance 🤩
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— Baylor+ (@BaylorPlus) March 25, 2024
Portland 3 | 8pm | ESPN
Perhaps UConn's Sweet 16 matchup against Duke will simply come down to the production of Huskies star Paige Bueckers. Buccaneer averaged 30 points, 10.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists in the Huskies' first two NCAA Tournament games this March, prompting coach Geno Auriemma to call her “the best player in the postseason in the country.” It is highly praised. But the bigger key may be how the players around the Buccaneers perform. In UW's 72-64 second-round win over Syracuse, only four players (out of just six players) scored, and after a 34-minute scoreless performance, senior Nika Mule fouled out. Despite the depth issues, UConn still ranks in the top 10 in both offense and defense, and that talent often overwhelms opponents.
Meanwhile, Duke pulled off an upset over second-seeded Ohio State, thanks in large part to the offensive prowess of guard Raegan Richardson. She scored 28 points, backing up her 25 points in the first round. Richardson could explode again against the Huskies, but he had only scored 15 points in Duke's previous three games combined. Defensively, the Blue Devils rank 6th in the nation in blocked shots per game and use a physical defense that ranks in the top 25 in the nation. This matchup will likely be low-scoring, but the question is whether Duke's offense can match UW's.
choose: Yukon
— Pickman
(Photos of Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese and Madison Booker: Matthew Holst/Getty Images, Eakin Howard/Getty Images, Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images)