Mike Walden's column: Have cities peaked? – Stanley News & Press

I grew up in the countryside outside Cincinnati, Ohio, in the 1950s and early 60s. Our house was just around the corner from my paternal grandfather's farm. I enjoyed the open spaces and clean air. There was little traffic, so I could bike everywhere. But there were some changes: my dad walked to school, and I took the bus.

Mike Walden

It was a big deal for me when my parents would take me to downtown Cincinnati to shop, see movies, or watch a Cincinnati Reds game at old Crosley Field. I think that's when I first became interested in cities. Downtown Cincinnati was exciting, with easy access to shops, restaurants, and entertainment, and the amazing thing about being able to see huge skyscrapers like the 49-story Carew Tower, which still stands today as the second tallest building in the city.
It was a natural progression for me to carry my interest in cities through college. My original intention was to become an architect and design buildings for large cities. Lacking the creativity in design, I moved into urban planning, which I thought could help manage cities. Then I discovered economics and its power to understand behavior. My doctoral dissertation focused on why some of Cincinnati's declining neighborhoods were revived by new investment and new residents.
When I came to North Carolina in the 1970s, most of the population lived in rural areas. It wasn't until 1990 that North Carolina officially became an urban state, and most residents lived in cities and their suburbs. Today, two-thirds of the population lives in urban areas.
In fact, for much of the past three decades, urban areas have continued to gain dominance, led by cities like Raleigh, Durham, Charlotte, Winston-Salem and Greensboro. Today, more than 80 percent of the state's economic activity is concentrated in urban counties. Growing economic sectors like technology, pharmaceuticals and finance favor urban areas because of their access to universities, young workforces, and conveniences like shopping, entertainment and transportation, especially air travel.
But the dominance of cities, especially big ones, may be cracking. Recently released U.S. Census data shows that since 2020, more people are moving out of cities nationwide than moving into them. The opposite is true for rural areas, where more people are moving in than moving out. The data holds true even when limited to North Carolina. These figures don't include people moving in from abroad.
Of course, the trend of cities losing population and rural areas gaining population may not continue. Part of this trend may be a reaction to the pandemic, as people seek refuge in rural areas where population density is much lower and they may be partially protected from person-to-person diseases like COVID.
Still, several factors may support a rural recovery. One of them is the rise in remote work. Remote work increased by 650% during the pandemic as offices, schools, and other places of business were closed to prevent the spread of the virus. But even after the pandemic, remote work is more than 300% higher than it was before COVID-19. A significant number of workers prefer the freedom and reduced commute that remote work offers. Many companies are also finding that remote work not only increases worker productivity and satisfaction, but also saves on office rental and maintenance costs.
The second factor is the expansion of high-speed internet service. Thanks in part to funding from federal and state governments, including North Carolina, more than 90% of people now report having access to broadband.
The third factor is the rise of cyber-purchasing combined with home delivery. For many items, you don't need to drive to a store to make a purchase. You can order almost any product and have it delivered to your doorstep. This process may not be as accessible or easy in rural areas, but with drone delivery expected in the future, cyber-ordering and home delivery could become convenient anywhere.
The bottom line is that cities may lose some of their appeal in the post-COVID era: Working, shopping, and accessing information via the internet are increasingly possible in small towns and rural areas. Even university classes are increasingly being taken remotely.
If recent population movement data holds up, we may be approaching a turning point in North Carolina's economic geography. Urban population growth will slow and may even decline. At the same time, population growth in small towns and rural areas may surge. Because the majority of remote jobs will be hybrid (e.g., 3 days from home, 2 days at the office), rural areas with one-way commutes to larger cities of less than an hour (most drivers find a commute longer than that to be too long) will see the largest influx of workers.
This geographic shift could be beneficial for many: Families living in small towns and rural areas would benefit from significantly lower home prices, less congestion, and more space. But if urban growth slows (or even declines), people living there would find themselves somewhat less crowded and experience some of the upward pressure on housing costs.
My travels throughout North Carolina for almost half a century have rekindled my interest in the countryside as well as the cities. The state has had a growing urban-rural divide for decades. Will the gap between city and rural life ever close? The answer is up to you.

Mike Walden is the Reynolds Distinguished Professor Emeritus at North Carolina State University.