Mexicans will vote Sunday in an election that is groundbreaking in some ways. It is on track to be the biggest election in Mexican history, one of the most violent in recent history and will likely see the first-ever election in which a woman will become president.
Polls show that the two main candidates who are splitting voters almost equally are women. The front-runner is Claudia Scheinbaum, a climate scientist who represents the ruling party and its allies. Her closest rival is Xochitl Gálvez, a businesswoman who heads the opposition coalition government.
Mr. Sheinbaum has held double-digit leads in polls for months, but the opposition argues those figures underestimate the candidate's true support. “There is an anti-establishment vote,” Mr. Galvez said in an interview, adding that if Mexicans turn out in droves to vote on Sunday, “we will win.”
“She's in a mindset where she has a 30-point lead,” Galvez said of her rival, “but she's going to get the surprise of her life.”
The race illustrates the huge strides women have made in recent years in Mexican politics, a country that didn't even have the right to vote until 1953. The two leading candidates both have significant experience: Galvez has served as a senator, while Sheinbaum has run the capital of one of the largest cities in the Western Hemisphere.
“For the first time in 200 years of our Republic, a woman will hold the highest honor our people can bestow: the office of President of Mexico,” Sheinbaum said in a recent speech.
But much of the campaign is focused on a man who is not on the ballot but who holds great influence: the powerful current President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Lopez Obrador has been a fixture in Mexican politics for decades, running in each of the last three presidential elections before finally winning in a landslide victory in 2018.
Lopez Obrador is a widely popular but polarizing figure who has drawn praise from enthusiasts and harsh criticism from critics. His administration has doubled the minimum wage and used cash transfer programs to lift millions out of poverty, while also pushing measures that many warn would empower the military and undermine democratic institutions.
His overwhelming influence has upended established politics, with three parties from the right, center and left forming an uneasy coalition that now supports Galvez.
Scheinbaum has appealed to voters primarily by promising to continue the work of Lopez Obrador, while Galvez has positioned himself as an alternative to those dissatisfied with Lopez Obrador's leadership and has vowed to reverse many of his policies.
“The way this election unfolds is a testament to the influence Lopez Obrador has had on Mexican politics,” said Mexican political analyst Carlos Bravo Regiador. “He is the central figure around which political identity and positions are defined.”
Whoever succeeds Lopez Obrador will face tough challenges.
Drug cartel violence continues to plague the country, forcing mass displacement and sparking one of the deadliest election campaigns in recent Mexican history. Rather than fighting criminal groups, Lopez Obrador has directed his government to address the drivers of violence, which he called “hugs, not bullets.”
Galvez blasted this approach.
“Enough hugging criminals and shooting at civilians,” she joked during the campaign, saying she would withdraw the military from civilian activities and direct them to focus on fighting organized crime while strengthening the police.
Scheinbaum said he would continue to focus on the social causes of violence, but he would also work to reduce impunity rates and strengthen the National Guard.
Economically, the opportunities are clear: Mexico is currently the United States' largest trading partner and has benefited from the recent relocation of manufacturing from China. Its currency is so strong that it has been dubbed the “super peso.”
But there are simmering problems: The federal budget deficit has ballooned to about 6 percent this year and state oil company Pemex is operating with heavy debt, straining national finances.
“The fiscal risks we face today are unlike anything we've seen in decades,” said Mariana Campos, director of Mexico's Evaluation Agency, a public policy research group.
Another challenge is the broad range of new responsibilities given to the military, which has been tasked with running ports and airports, managing airlines and building a railroad through the Mayan jungle. “There's no militarization of the country,” Mr. Sheinbaum said, suggesting he's open to reevaluating the military's involvement in public affairs.
In addition to these pressing domestic issues, the fate of the next president is also intertwined with the outcome of the US presidential election: if President Biden is re-elected, continuity will be ensured, but the return of President Donald J. Trump to the White House will make predictions much harder.
Trump's plan would involve mass roundups of illegal immigrants and deportations to their home countries, potentially targeting millions of Mexicans living in the U.S. Trump has already threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese cars made in Mexico.
And there's a growing fentanyl problem: The U.S. government says drug cartels are making it in Mexico using chemicals imported from China, and Trump has threatened military action to combat the drug trade.
Dealing with such pressure from Washington, even in the form of an incendiary campaign speech, could pose a daunting challenge for Mexico's next president.
Scheinbaum said Mexico would have a “good relationship” with either Trump or Biden, and that his campaign would continue to work to stem the flow of migrants.
Galvez said he would be comfortable working with both men.
Asked how she would deal with Trump, she replied: “I'm used to dealing with toxic masculinity.”
“It seems to me that Trump is a fundamentally practical guy,” she said, adding, “What he wants is to solve the border and the fentanyl problem, and I think that can be done.”
Emiliano Rodriguez Mega contributed reporting from Mexico City.