The Canadian banker-turned Prime Minister pulled away from political miracles, leading his party from the deep by the vote to a rare fourth term, securing the job of the government after joining electoral politics just three months ago.
The country's new leader, Mark Carney, told Canadians he was the right person to stand up to President Trump, and that his economics expertise would help boost the country's inactive economy and strengthen it in turbulent times.
Now he has to actually do all that, as his country has moved over a long period of political turmoil and faces fallout of a trade war with the nearest allies and the economy Partner: USA.
I'm confused at home
Carney's predecessor, Justin Trudeau, created an unusual opportunity that Carney jumped on when he announced in January that he would resign after 10 years leading Canada.
But after Carney won the race to replace Trudeau as liberal prime minister and leader in March, he took over a troublesome situation at home.
The Canadian Parliament has not been held during sessions since before Christmas, after Trudeau stopped working to hold a liberal leadership election that elevated Carney.
As a result, the country was in political instability for months, without the ability to pursue legislative agenda.
Mr. Carney doesn't have his own cabinet yet. He made minor changes to what he inherited from Mr Trudeau, but now that he has won the national election, he could put a personal stamp on the government by choosing a minister.
Mr. Carney needs to beat the necessary parliamentary allies, ensure the stability of the party, while being more likely to collapse through unconfident votes, preventing new elections, and ensuring party stability.
“The first order for business is to win a cabinet and get back Congress as soon as possible,” said Matthew Holmes, a senior executive at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, representing the interests of the business.
“We need to see the Prime Minister come in and move to the law soon,” Holmes said. “This Prime Minister doesn't have a honeymoon.”
Now stability
A key pitch for Canadians who worked in the favor of Carney in the ballot box was that he was exactly the right leader to navigate the global trade and security sorting urged by Trump.
Mr. Carney's past experience, leading key institutions through turbulent times, including the Bank of England, through Brexit, was important to convince many Canadians who supported him that his qualifications were consistent due to the challenges facing Canada.
Canadian companies are restoring Mr. Carney a sense of order in business transactions with the United States. Trump's tariffs on Canadian goods are a moving target, and the administration is applying new taxes without a sense of consistent economic grounds, whilst pulling back some taxes. As a result, private sector investment in Canada has been suspended, Holmes said. He said Carney should deal with that soon.
“Capacity is frozen, and I'm paralyzed when I see a trade war unfolding, and I don't know what the future holds,” Holmes said. “He needs to inject certainty in it.”
Anti-Trump
Carney's framing in the campaign on Trump's threat to Canada has lifted him into a global anti-Trump figure. He is the first major leader explicitly elected in the anti-Trump campaign since Trump's reelection.
“As I have been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water,” Carney told supporters gathered in the Canadian capital, Ottawa, to celebrate his victory early Tuesday. “President Trump is trying to break us, so he's trying to make us own. That's never going to happen,” he added that the crowd booed.
Later Tuesday, the two men spoke on the phone, their office said, and agreed to meet soon.
Mr. Carney's fiery rhetoric can prove the problem if the two leaders are talking in person. Carney said he wants to win Trump's respect, but he also said it is open to debate about what future relations between the two countries will look like on a variety of issues, including trade and security.
“In the West, there is an appetite for finding anti-Trump figures to win the mantle of the leaders of the Free World,” said Stephen Welheim, Senior Fellow of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “I think that's a dangerous proposition.”
“The moment the media starts to promote foreign leaders as global anti-Trump resistance, it will put a target on their leader's back,” Wertheim added.
While Carney is likely to spurt a more subtle tone behind bars with Trump, Canadian public will be looking for the rebellion and pride he has promised in his campaign trajectory.
And the fact remains that the US is imposing tariffs on key Canadian sectors like the automotive industry, and Trump regularly says he hopes Canada will become the 51st state, including Canada's Election Day.
Wertheim said Carney should ignore the threat and focus on hitting the deal. “I don't think Carney should be too stubborn about the threat of annexation,” he said. “If Trump makes it, it's probably half a joke, and Carney should put it back in and smile.”
Play host
An early test of Carney's ability to manage his deal with Trump will be held when he hosts a summit for a group of seven industrialized economic leaders in Kananaskis, Alberta, in June.
Trump is expected to be present, and will find himself one of America's closest allies, and everyone is hit by US tariffs.
On the contrary, Mr. Carney will be among his friends in his own backyard. He has personal relationships with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Kiel Starmer, and is aiming to negotiate military spending. He dealt with Ursula von der Reyen, the top European Union official.
It is unclear what will be decided at the summit, as such a global gathering is about adjusting policies at a higher level rather than generating specific ones.
Still, there is a slight margin for the error. When Trump last attended the G7 Summit in Canada, he exploded with Trudeau, leaving without signing an Anodine joint communica, calling Trudeau “two sides.”
Mr. Carney needs to be closely managed by the event to prevent discomfort.
“The G7 Leader Summit in June will really shape his early assessment of success,” Holmes said. “This is what he worked for and he is able to handle a very complicated geopolitical international situation.”
