The online prediction market has been claimed last year when the popularity of the US election has gained popularity and the victory of Donald J. Trump seems to be reflected faster than the opinion polls.
Currently, Kalshi, one of the largest players in business, has made more butters using contracts to bet on some of the largest events of politics, business and sports. 。
KALSHI will announce on Friday that the securities company will be able to purchase directly in the predictable market, just as users can purchase stocks and cryptocurrency.
“As time goes on, integrating with brokers will allow 160 million Americans to have inventory to access the predictive market,” he said. Talek Mansour states in a statement. “Calusi promises to grow into a sign of signs to the growth of the predicted market, and we will not stop building until we do so.”
This is the latest evolution of the prediction market, which has existed for many years, but has become more prominent in the 2024 election cycle. Platform supporters have stated that they are more accurate than the wisdom of the crowd and the public polls promoted by the ability to respond to the breaking news more quickly. (Making several big mistakes, including the 2016 US presidential election, does not always work.)
Better also wins when the result is correctly predicted. A French trader in another platform, Polymarket, has won $ 85 million for Trump's victory.
The most prominent proof of concept was the 2024 presidential election. This indicated that Trump showed better coin flip odds toward the election day. (Unlike public opinion polls, which measure plans that voters actually act, and mainly show the heat of death, these markets track the odds that are suggested by candidates by betting on the platform.)
With such a market, users can bet on various situations, such as whether this week's top US Netflix show and whether Chatgpt or Deepseek will be the most downloaded app in the Apple app store this weekend. Masu.
According to the company, Calusi has a 908 active agreement and has risen from 691 on the election date of 290 in October.
The rise of the predicted market is accompanied by a series of legal victory. Calusi was the first company to allow US Betters to participate in the platform after the Federal Court allowed to provide election -related contracts over the Product Future Transactions Committee.
Other securities companies were immediately followed by interactive brokers and Robin Foods with their own election -related bets. Wall Street companies have also begun to build the results of these platforms into their research.
Since then, KALSHI has seen the amount of betting about $ 2 billion, and its app has been downloaded about 2 million times.
The movement of KALSHI to open a platform to other securities companies is now possible when the CFTC has canceled the abilities of the company that cooperates with futures contract merchants.
Nevertheless, in November, the federal agent attacked Shayne Coplan, the highest executive officer of Polymarket, as part of a survey whether the company operates unauthorized product exchange. 。
The predictive market has also benefited from favorable political wind. Trump praised the platform by reflecting the high odds of November's victory, and Calusi hired Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of the president as a strategic advisor. (The company explained employment as part of an initiative to make event transactions as ordinary and influential as traditional financial markets.)
Calusi and other predictive markets may benefit from other movements by the Trump administration, including the appointment of CFTC, a CFTC member who criticized the efforts of an institution to crack down on election betting as a representative chairman of regulators. 。
Law experts hope that CFTC will withdraw the litigation against Kalshi under PHAM, and instead pursues the creation of rules that enable the expansion of the predictive market.
