In many ways, the battle over control of Istanbul City Hall, Turkey's largest city and economic dynamo, is between those who vote and those who do not.
The first is the incumbent mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, a rising star in the opposition party that won an unexpected victory in 2019 and is widely seen as a leading candidate for the presidency.
The second is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who served as Istanbul's mayor decades ago and has wanted his homeland returned to control of the ruling Justice and Development Party since Imamoglu's victory.
The outcome will be determined by local elections held on Sunday, which will shape Turkey's political future in many ways. After voting ended, more than two-thirds of the ballot boxes had been counted, with Imamoglu leading with 50% of the vote and Erdogan's party candidate Murat Krum with 41%, state news agency Anadolu Agency said. agency.
A victory for Mr. Erdoğan's party would restore political and financial influence over running Turkey's largest city, giving more power to a leader accused by critics of leading the country toward dictatorship. will be given. However, if the incumbent mayor wins, anti-Erdoğan opposition forces could be reinvigorated and Mr. İmamoğlu could face off against Mr. Erdoğan in the next presidential election, expected in 2028.
“This election will determine the nature of political competition in Turkey in the coming years,” said Sinan Urgen, director of Istanbul-based research group Edam.
The vote came amid a long-running cost-of-living crisis that has weakened Turkey's currency and left many people feeling poorer. Furthermore, Mr. Erdogan was re-elected in May's presidential and parliamentary elections, dashing the hopes of the opposition coalition that had been working together to oust him.
The election saw widespread voter anger over inflation that had soared to more than 80%, and despite criticism that the government failed to respond quickly to the February 2023 earthquake that killed more than 53,000 people in southern Turkey. Mr. Erdoğan secured victory.
The opposition's defeat shattered morale and the coalition collapsed.
Many opposition voters now see Mr. İmamoğlu as uniquely capable of defeating Mr. Erdogan's party and even predict that he could become Turkey's next president.
“If İmamoğlu wins Istanbul again, people will think that his chances of defeating Erdogan are not completely gone,” said Seda Demiralp, a political science professor at Isık University in Istanbul.
On Sunday, voters headed to polling stations across Turkey to elect mayors and other municipal officials. However, given its size and political and economic importance, much of the focus was on Istanbul.
Home to about 16 million people and straddling the Bosphorus Strait between Europe and Asia, Istanbul generates much of Turkey's economic output. Metropolitan municipalities have approximately 90,000 employees, many of whom work in municipal corporations whose directors are appointed by the mayor. All of this gives the person sitting in City Hall a significant opportunity to award city jobs and contracts to their supporters.
The race was also personal. Mr. Erdogan, 70, grew up in Istanbul, where his father worked as a ferry captain. His political career took off when he won the city's mayoralty from 1994 to 1998. Many residents praised him for his pragmatic governance, which focused on quality of life issues in the ancient city, such as cleaning up and widening polluted roads and waterways. Water and sewerage network.
He became prime minister and president, and his work was effectively based in the capital, Ankara, which has long been Turkey's jewel due to its rich history, international elite, and burgeoning tourism sector. He often talks about his love for Istanbul.
Mr. Erdogan's party maintained control of the city for most of the 25 years since his election.
That's why 52-year-old İmamoğlu's defeat of the candidate in 2019 was a huge blow to Erdogan's party. Mr. Erdogan's party claimed election fraud, and Turkey's election commission ordered new elections.
Imamoğlu won by an even wider margin.
In an effort to take back the city, Mr. Erdogan is backing Murat Kurum, a former minister of cities and environment in Erdogan's government and current party lawmaker.
Krum, 47, has pitched himself as a hands-on technocrat transforming Istanbul's neighborhoods by expanding services to protect residents from potential earthquakes. This is a major concern for the city, where seismologists have warned that it could be hit by a major earthquake in the near future, with potential damage. Hundreds of thousands of structures.
“We envision an Istanbul where no family member is afraid of earthquakes,” he said at a large election rally on the old airport runway last Sunday. “All of our homes will be safe.”
He accused Imamoğlu of sloppy management of city government.
“Today, Istanbul is in a restless and unhappy state due to an inadequate government,” he said.
He called Istanbul “a city that gave us a leader as a gift,” meaning Mr. Erdogan, and promised to abide by his wishes.
“Our chief has entrusted you to us,” he said.
Mr. Erdogan then took to the stage and gave a long speech accusing Mr. İmamoğlu of using the city to seek higher office.
“Istanbul is at a crossroads,” he said. “On the other hand, there are people who only say “me.'' On the other hand, there are people who say “only in Istanbul.''
Many at the rally spoke at length about their love for Mr. Erdogan and how he had run the country, without mentioning Mr. Krum.
“We are here to support Mr. Erdoğan,” said Erkan Kirisi, 49, who works at a clothing factory. “He will develop our country, and we want this country to move forward.”
A few days later, at another small rally, Imammoğlu addressed people in the streets from atop a campaign bus, appealing for sewage treatment, parking, free transportation cards and milk for low-income families.
He characterized himself as weak, noting that not only Mr. Erdogan but also several government ministers had appeared in Istanbul to support Mr. Krum.
“It is said that they are trying to take back Istanbul. From whom? From the state itself!” he said. “The subway that you built, the subway that I built, all of that is property of the state. They think that the positions and posts that they were elected to are their property.”
In the crowd, Suna Hisman, 40, and her sister cheered at the mayor's sarcasm and waved Turkish flags.
“We love him,” she said. “We support him and God wants him to be our president.”
Turkey's next national election is scheduled for the end of Mr Erdogan's term in 2028, but some Turks expect him to remain in power for a long time. He is currently serving his second of the two presidential terms allowed by the Constitution. But if parliament calls for early elections, he could seek re-election or seek constitutional amendment.
Mr. Erdogan's critics accuse him of eroding Turkey's democracy by using the government to silence dissidents, co-opt the judiciary and intimidate the press. Some analysts fear the party's victory in Istanbul could further embolden Mr. Erdogan to accelerate these efforts.
Demiralp, a political science professor, said: “If the opposition loses now, there will be a long period without elections and a unified central government, which is already very authoritarian.'' I think.''
Mr. Erdogan and his supporters point to his party's long track record of winning polls and reject the idea that he aspires to be a dictator.
Garcin Herman Contributed to the report.