Analysts say the relatively limited scope of Israel's nighttime attacks on Iran and the subdued response from Iranian officials may have made it unlikely that fighting between the two countries would escalate immediately. said Friday.
Israel remains at war on two fronts: Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, but the possibility of a third front has diminished, at least for now.
Israel's tough response to last weekend's Iranian attack on southern Israel prompted more aggressive Iranian counterattacks, sparking days of concerns that a tit-for-tat standoff could escalate into a wider war.
Foreign leaders have advised Israel to treat its successful defense against Iran's missile barrage as a victory that does not require retaliation, threatening Israel's war with two of Iran's allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, and a third. It warned of a counterattack that could further destabilize a region already in turmoil due to tensions with the United States. , Yemen's Houthis.
But when the attack finally took place in the early hours of Friday, the Israeli strike appeared to be less damaging than expected, allowing Iranian officials and state media outlets to downplay its significance, at least for now.
By Friday evening, only one senior Iranian official, the foreign minister, had publicly acknowledged Israel's role in the attack. Analysts say Tehran's relative silence and Israel's refusal to accept responsibility has given Tehran an opportunity to move forward without humiliation.
Iranian officials say no enemy aircraft have been detected in Iranian airspace and that the main attack, apparently against a military base in central Iran, was launched by a small drone likely launched from inside Iranian territory. said that it was done. There is precedent for the nature of this attack, with Israel using a similar technique in its attack on military facilities in Isfahan last year.
One Western official and two Iranian officials speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss security issues said Israeli warplanes also fired missiles from outside Iran. It is not currently clear what type of missile was used, where it was launched from, or whether it was intercepted.
By sunrise, Iranian state news agencies were broadcasting footage of peaceful streets and predicting a quick return to normalcy, while officials were publicly denying any impact from the attack. The airport also reopened after a brief overnight closure.
Analysts warned that any outcome was still possible.
Iraqi security forces said there was an airstrike early Saturday morning on a base in Iraq's Babylon province used by Iranian-backed armed groups. According to the hospital, three people were injured. There was no claim of responsibility.U.S. Army stated in a statement He said he did not take part in the attack in Iraq.
Iran's initial reaction to yesterday's attack suggested it was in no hurry to respond, even though the country's leaders had warned in recent days that it would respond strongly and quickly to any Israeli attack. Was.
“The way they present it to their own citizens and the fact that the skies are already open allows them to make the decision not to react,” said David E., former head of research at Israel's foreign intelligence agency Mossad. said Shima Shine, who is also a researcher. Iran expert.
But she added: “We've made so many assessment mistakes that I'm very hesitant to say for certain.”
In a miscalculation that sparked the recent violence, Israel raided the Iranian embassy compound in Syria on April 1, killing seven Iranian officials, including three senior commanders.
Israel has launched similar attacks against Iranian interests in Syria and Iran for years without provoking a direct response from Iran. But the scale of Israel's April 1 attack appears to have strained Iran's patience, with the country's leaders vowing to no longer accept Israeli attacks on Iranian interests anywhere in the region. I warned you. Two weeks later, Iran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel, causing little damage, but the scale of the attack shocked Israelis.
Even if Iran does not respond in the same way as Friday's attack on Israel, the world will be left speculating about how it will respond to future attacks, Shine said.
Syrian authorities announced on Friday that at about the same time as the Iranian attack, Israel had again struck a stronghold in Syria. This was the kind of attack Israel has carried out dozens of times in the past without provoking a direct Iranian response, but given Iran's response to Israel's April 1 attack on Syria, this time This could prompt more aggressive retaliation by Iran.
“The question is, do they stick to the lines that they shouldn't cross,” Shine said. “But what exactly is the red line? Is it just high-ranking people? Just embassies? Or all Iranian targets in Syria?”
Some Iranian analysts believe that the Iranian government is unlikely to seek all-out war, given that its main priority is to maintain power domestically amid growing domestic discontent. ing. For decades, the Iranian government has sought to gradually expand its regional influence through proxies and allies, rather than risking everything in a direct confrontation with Israel.
Iran's recent missile attacks have succeeded in challenging Israeli assumptions about how Iran operates, but “ultimately, escalation is not in Iran's interests,” says research group Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme. Director Sanam Vakil said. Based in London.
In addition to strengthening alliances and gradually reducing U.S. influence in the Middle East, Dr. Baqir said in an email that he is “above all seeking to maintain the security and stability of the regime.” “Détente allows us to return to our goals, which requires patience and slow progress amid regional vacuum and confusion,” she added.
Inside Israel, there is speculation that the country's attack was a failure that caused little damage, and that Israel was ultimately intimidated into carrying out only a minor retaliatory attack compared to Iran's more aggressive attacks. Some suggested that. In an apparent hint of a strike on social media, far-right Israeli government minister Itamar Ben Gvir wrote one word that roughly translates to “Pathetic!” Ben Gvir had called for a stronger response before the attack.
Others hailed this as a clever tactical success that gave Iran the opportunity to avoid retaliation without losing face, while simultaneously showing Tehran that Israel could attack the heart of Iranian territory unnoticed. – and praised the attack as far more sophisticated than Iran's own attack last weekend. .
Renowned Israel critic Nahum Barnea likened Israel's attack to the Biblical story of the ancient Jewish leader David attacking another Biblical figure, King Saul. In the story, David had the chance to kill Saul, but instead he cut off a piece of Saul's coat.
“The purpose was to let the Iranian people know that we can reach Iranian soil,” Barnea said in a telephone interview. “Don't open your front.”
But even if the moderates appeared to have won for now on Friday, experts warned it was only a matter of time before serious conflict broke out again.
“The recent open confrontation between the two sides is just the beginning,” said Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-Israeli professor of Iranian studies at Israel's Reichmann University. “Sooner or later, the two will face each other head-to-head again.”
Cassandra Vinograd, Jonathan Rees and Rawan Sheikh Ahmad Contributed to the report.
