As Israeli troops return from parts of northern Gaza for the second or third time to wipe out Hamas, and are also fighting further south in Rafah, the Israeli government is facing a crisis in its military leadership, a key constituency. found themselves facing more vocal complaints from
Current and former military officials have said more publicly that the government's failure to develop a post-battle plan for Gaza is forcing Israeli forces to fight again over the area eight months into the war. are beginning to claim that. Areas where Hamas fighters have re-emerged.
Two Israeli officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid professional repercussions, said some generals and wartime ministers had criticized Benjamin for failing to develop and announce a process to build an alternative to Hamas, which rules Gaza. He said he was particularly dissatisfied with Prime Minister Netanyahu. .
There was little hope among officials and experts that a new government would be formed amid the intensifying fighting. However, “clear, hold, build” is widely accepted as a practice for fighting insurgency. And to a growing number of critics, it appears that Israel is simply slipping into liquidation mode, increasing the risk for Israeli soldiers and Gaza residents while ceasefire negotiations remain stalled.
Two officials said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's reluctance to seriously discuss the second half of the Gaza operation, the “day after” the fighting, is making it easier for Hamas to regroup in places such as Jabaliya in northern Gaza. Stated.
Israel first attacked Hamas forces in October and returned again this week with air and ground strikes.
Much of the global criticism of Israel over the war focuses on the ever-increasing civilian death toll. But Eran Rahman, Israel's vice-presidential national security adviser from 2006 to 2015, said part of the reason for this was “a lack of a coherent vision for the next day.”
Some analysts say Israeli generals should have asked tougher questions months ago.
“Hamas and groups like it will survive, if they hadn't started earlier to create counters by aligning the sun, moon, and stars with something,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior research fellow at Carnegie University. . International Peace Fund. “There's no counter. That's the problem.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has resisted calls for an end to the fighting, insisting there will be no civilian government in Gaza until Hamas is destroyed. In a podcast interview on Monday, he said the region first needed “sustained demilitarization by Israel,” adding: “We know that you have destroyed Hamas or that you are trying to destroy Hamas. “No one will come in until then,” he said.
But a growing number of analysts and officials doubt whether Israel can achieve such far-reaching goals, and vocal criticism from some in the military comes amid a gradually widening rift with Netanyahu's government. It reflects that.
Military officials, along with the White House and other countries, have been complaining privately for months about the lack of a postwar strategy, but dissonance at home and abroad has grown as the scale of the counterinsurgency operation becomes clearer. ing.
Israeli strategists have always said they expected troops to return to some areas of Gaza in the later stages of the war to stamp out resistance, but now that is more difficult than necessary. There is a growing recognition that there is.
Two Israeli officials said that without a means to manage the people's basic needs on Hamas's behalf or give them hope for a return to normal life, Hamas will not return to its old home or create a new one. Fight harder for the Israeli army.
Michael Koplau, an analyst at the Israel Policy Forum, said military leaders “end up repeating Groundhog Day-like military missions because the government is not answering larger strategic and political questions. “I feel dissatisfied with the fact that I was given this,” he said. “Growing military dissatisfaction and anxiety among military families will complicate the government's problems and place further burdens on coalition forces.”
For Netanyahu, political considerations include a right-wing party that has called for an all-out assault on Gaza over the objections of the United States and is reluctant to support what Arab states are demanding as a precondition for aid. This includes uniting the government. Gaza: the road to a Palestinian state.
Netanyahu's coalition partners have threatened to overthrow the government if he deviates significantly from their demands, which could leave him without his powers as prime minister and facing a series of corruption allegations. There is.
Dr. Rahman, a former vice presidential national security adviser, recently released a draft plan, along with other Wilson Center scholars, calling for control and police control of Gaza by a multinational authority led by the United States, Egypt, and other countries. did. This information is being shared with Israeli authorities.
Other proposals include efforts to strengthen the Palestinian Authority, which currently governs parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, but which the Israeli government does not consider a capable or reliable partner. He argues that he rejects the idea.
U.S. officials said over the weekend and on Monday that without a diplomatic solution, Israel would face what the United States faces in Iraq and Afghanistan: a bloody war of attrition that will last for years. He repeated his claim that he was deaf.
“Whatever they do in Rafah, or even if they leave Gaza, they will be held responsible for a lasting insurgency because there will be a lot of armed Hamas left. I believe they need to do that,” the Secretary said. Governor Antony J. Blinken said over the weekend. “That would create a vacuum that is likely to be filled by chaos, anarchy, and ultimately Hamas again.”
Former Israeli officials had warned of a lack of postwar planning even before the ground assault on Gaza began. Former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni told the government on October 14, the day Israel's military offensive began, a week after the devastating Hamas-led attack that killed about 1,200 people, according to Israeli officials. He called for consideration of Gaza's post-war future.
“Otherwise you're going to be stuck there unnecessarily and it's going to cost you a lot of money,” she said at the time.
In an interview Tuesday, she said that's exactly what happened.
“Imagine if we had decided on this earlier and started working with the United States, the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia sooner,” she said, referring to the United Arab Emirates. “That would be much easier.”
Jonathan Rees and Gabby Sobelman Contributed to the report.