Iran directly retaliated against Israel for the killing of a senior general in Damascus, Syria, with an onslaught of more than 300 drones and missiles aimed at restoring credibility and deterrence, officials and analysts said. Announced.
They say this is a moment of great risk, and important questions remain unanswered. Were Iran's attacks enough to satisfy demands for retaliation? Or will they feel obligated to strike again, given the relatively meager results of nearly all drones and missiles being intercepted by Israel and the US? And will Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu consider the strong performance of his country's air defenses an adequate response? Or will it choose to further escalate attacks on Iran itself?
Since Iran attacked Israel as promised, it would want to avoid a broader war, officials and analysts said, adding that the Iranians targeted only military locations, apparently to avoid civilian casualties, and did not attack Israel significantly. It has been pointed out that the attack had been advertised for some time. .
“Iran's government appears to have decided that the attack on Damascus was a strategic turning point and that failing to retaliate would have more harm than good,” said Ali Baez, head of the Iran International Crisis Group. said. “But in doing so, we risk escalating the shadow war we have been waging for years with Israel into a very real and very harmful conflict that could involve the United States,” he said. Ta.
“The Iranians have hung up their cards for now,” said Sanam Vakil, head of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. “They chose to call Israel's bluff, and they felt the need to do so, because they see the last six months as a persistent effort to push Israel back across the region.”
On Sunday, Iranian leaders said the military operation against Israel had ended, but warned that they could launch a larger operation depending on Israel's response.
Brigadier General Mohammad Bagheri, Iran's top military official, said: “The operation has brought complete results,” adding: “We have no intention of continuing the operation.” But he added that if Israel attacks Iran on its soil or elsewhere, “our next operation will be much larger than this.”
Iran has been involved in a number of attacks over the years, including assassinations of nuclear scientists and military commanders, explosions at nuclear and military bases, cyberattacks, intelligence intrusions, embarrassing thefts of nuclear documents, and recent attacks on critical infrastructure. It has suffered blow after blow from Israel.
However, since the October 7 Hamas-led attack prompted Israel to go to war in Gaza, Israel has stepped up attacks against Iranian interests and commanders in Syria. In a series of attacks since December, Israel has assassinated at least 18 Iranian commanders and soldiers from the Quds Force, an elite unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that operates outside Iran's borders, according to Iranian media.
The Iranian government has been criticized by hard-line supporters for its cautious stance during the Gaza war.
In response to this weekend's attack, Baqir said: “Tehran has drawn this red line, and Iran certainly has a red line that it cannot cross, and it is not going to continue to tolerate a slow deterioration of its position.'' I think they thought it was necessary to make this clear to Israel.”
Tehran responded, even if the attack prompted determined American support and extensive Western diplomatic support for Israel, at least temporarily took away some of Israel's enthusiasm for the Gaza war, and left Iran isolated once again. I felt like I had to.
Baqir said the two countries were now in a standoff, and both sides were prepared for escalation, even though they knew it would cause great harm to themselves.
At the same time, the old equation has changed, with Israel and Iran now in direct conflict within each other's territory, rather than through Iranian proxies abroad.
Following Israel's attack on the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus, a direct attack on Israel by Iran threatens a long and sometimes hidden war between Israel and Iran, which says it wants to wipe Israel off the map. It represents a new chapter. The conflict, also known as the “Shadow War,” was fought between Israel and Iran's allies and proxies, primarily in Gaza, southern Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria.
Both sides claim they are acting in national self-defense. Israel opposes Iran as its main ally and ruler against groups committed to its destruction, and Iran opposes a potential war with Israel, often in the name of the Palestinian people. It is.
Iran has enriched uranium to near-weapons-grade levels and cites its rapidly expanding nuclear program as a deterrent to Israel, but denies any intention to build nuclear weapons. However, experts consider Iran to be a marginal nuclear power, capable of producing weapons-grade nuclear material within weeks and crude nuclear weapons within a year or so.
Supreme Leader and Commander-in-Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is said to be ill and is said to be facing a women-led internal revolt in 2022 calling for an end to clerical rule. Iran is also undergoing a slow and complex transition.
Four Iranian officials, two of whom are members of the Revolutionary Guards, said Khamenei himself ordered the attack on Israel from within Iran as Iran shifted from “strategic patience” to more active deterrence. This is to send a clear message that they are doing the same. They requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
“Iran's operation sends a clear message to Israel and its allies that the rules of the game have changed and that if in the future Israel attacks Iranian targets or kills Iranians, we are prepared to strike massively. “The era of covert operations and patience is over,” Nasser Imani, a prominent Tehran-based analyst close to the government, said in a telephone interview.
Imani also said that since Israel is widely criticized over Gaza, including by key allies such as the United States, Iran wanted to seize a “golden opportunity” to retaliate on this scale.
Iran's rise to regional hegemony, strengthened by its proxies and nuclear capabilities, puts it at odds with traditional Sunni Arab governments in the region, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Gulf states. The Islamic revolution that overthrew the monarchy in 1979 was initially intended as a regional revolution to overthrow these governments, most of which were monarchies or military dictatorships, so it was not effective in non-Arab Shiite states. Israel's efforts to limit Iranian power, including Israel's war against Hamas, have received quiet support from Arab states.
The risk of regional spread has now increased significantly. Iran has been careful during the Gaza war to limit large-scale attacks by its proxies surrounding Israel and to avoid large-scale Israeli retaliation, particularly against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets at Israel and is considered a major deterrent against Israel from directly attacking Iran, particularly its nuclear and missile programs.
Bruno Tertrait, deputy director of the French Foundation for Strategic Research, said Israel should not react given Iran's new isolation after the attack. “But the threshold has been crossed,” he said. “The threshold for a major Israeli attack on Iranian territory, which is always an extreme option for Israel no matter what commentators say, has now been lowered,” he continued.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has been warning of the Iranian threat for two decades and faces intense pressure to respond from within the volatile far-right coalition, but he has not been able to launch a stronger counterattack against Iran directly or against Hezbollah. may choose. However, since Washington was not informed of the Damascus attack, it is likely to insist on prior consultations in the future.
However, the modest results of the Iranian attack mean that “Iran is at a disadvantage, lacks the willpower and ability to engage more deeply, and now is the time to deliver a deeper blow to Israel and Iran than Israel has long desired.'' “It may strengthen Israel's awareness that it's time for a regional proxy,” said Julian Barnes Dacey, director for the Middle East and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Israel's challenge has always been “to thwart the main thrust of the attack while leaving room for Iran to say it has achieved its goal,” writes Nahum Barnea, a commentator for the Israeli daily Yediot Aronos. Danger comes from both extremes, he continued. “If Iran's operation is too successful, it is likely to lead to a regional war. If Iran's operation is too unsuccessful, it will likely lead to another Iranian operation.”
Iran's mission to the United Nations suggested in a statement on social media on Saturday that Iran would pull out if Israel did not comply.
“This issue can be considered resolved. However, if the Israeli regime makes another mistake, Iran's response will be even harsher.” The statement said:. He also warned, “America must leave!”
Rayleigh Nikonazar I contributed a report from Leuven, Belgium.