Smoke on board. Flat tires. Cracked windscreens. The list of problems affecting flights is endless, increasing anxiety for travelers and causing thousands of delays and cancellations around the world every day.
But despite the frustration and anxiety these events cause, their significance can be difficult to interpret and understand. Aviation safety experts say this is what travellers should think about when disruptions occur:
Problems will arise.
Several startling air travel incidents have made headlines in recent weeks, including a sudden dive into the ocean, a disturbing jolt that damaged a plane's tail, and an aborted takeoff after what appeared to be an engine fire.
But the most common accidents and breakdowns, however frightening, are usually not serious, experts say.
For example, hydraulic leaks are a common occurrence that pilots take seriously, but don't cause much disruption because airplanes have backup hydraulic systems that power the landing gear, brakes, wing flaps, flight controls, and other equipment that allow the plane to take off, fly, and land. A “runway excursion,” when a plane veers off the runway, can make for compelling videos and a frightening experience for passengers, but it doesn't necessarily cause significant damage to the plane or pose a risk to the safety of those on board.
The same goes for a variety of mechanical or maintenance issues that can occur before takeoff and force pilots to hold the plane at the gate or taxi back to the gate. Experts say it's important to understand and deal with such incidents, but they're usually minor.
“Pilots are saying, 'I'm highly trained and highly knowledgeable about this airplane, and I need to go back to the gate and get an expert just to be sure,'” said Shawn Plucznicki, a former airline pilot and assistant professor at The Ohio State University's Center for Aviation Studies. “That means the system is working perfectly, and that's a good thing.”
Sometimes these problems can stop a flight or even take the plane out of service, but sometimes they can be quickly fixed, and planes are packed with fail-safes so that even if a system fails, the plane may still be able to continue flying safely by relying on one or more backups.
Flying is a complex, gravity-defying feat repeated thousands of times each day in a wide variety of conditions, so travelers shouldn't be surprised if something goes wrong, says Amy Pritchett, a pilot and aerospace engineering professor at Pennsylvania State University.
“Small parts are always going to burn out or break,” she says. “There's always going to be holes in the taxiway pavement, things are going to shake. There's always going to be questions about whether the weather's good enough to fly, whether we're going to encounter turbulence, etc. All of these are sources of variability that need to be actively managed.”
Flying is safe.
Another thing travelers should keep in mind, experts say, is that serious flight incidents are extremely rare.
Air travel is safer than car or train travel, in part because safety is built into everything from air traffic control to the planes themselves: Critical systems and procedures have backups, there are few single points of failure, pilots undergo intensive and repeated training, and airlines prepare for a range of outcomes.
“Flying is the safest mode of transportation ever devised by man,” says John Cox, a former airline pilot who runs a safety consulting firm. “Just be careful driving to the airport.”
A 2022 analysis of commercial aviation safety conducted by the National Academy of Sciences found that over the past few decades, commercial aviation safety in the United States has improved by more than 40 times.
According to the National Transportation Safety Board, typical causes of accidents include turbulence, a hard landing, a collision with another plane or vehicle on the ground or component failure such as a wing flap or engine failure.
Flying is so safe because the aviation industry generally responds to any problems, even those that pose a remote threat. In the United States, airlines, manufacturers, and agencies such as the Federal Aviation Administration and the National Transportation Safety Board constantly monitor and review the risks and dangers of air travel.
“The current system of monitoring commercial air traffic is extremely sophisticated,” Pritchett said, but that doesn't mean all involved parties can let their guard down when assessing potential dangers, she added.
Experts say that while trips are sometimes aborted, diverting a plane from its destination is generally a sign of an abundance of caution by pilots, airlines and air traffic controllers, not a life-threatening emergency. “Could you continue to your destination?” asks Kenneth Burns, a pilot and associate professor who heads flight training at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. “Maybe you could, but is that the safest way to do it?”
Attributing responsibility is complicated.
Due to the complexity and redundancy of the aviation industry, problems rarely have a single cause – rather, most serious (even catastrophic) problems are the result of a confluence of multiple contributing factors.
“There's no such thing as smoking gun,” Plucznicki said. “When you're looking at the wreckage or the records, there's never an 'aha moment' where you say, 'Ah, now I understand the only reason this plane crashed.'”
Take the near-collision between two planes on a runway at Kennedy International Airport early last year, when the National Transportation Safety Board concluded that several factors contributed to what could have been a catastrophic accident.
Authorities found that one plane's pilot was distracted and took the wrong taxiway, while air traffic controllers directing him were distracted and didn't notice, and that runway status lights came on too late to warn the pilot of his mistake, authorities concluded.
Experts say that assigning blame is not only difficult in investigating such accidents, but is generally discouraged. “Bladder-free postmortems are a cornerstone of modern aviation safety,” said Kyla Dempsey, who writes about aviation accidents for the blog Admiral Cloudberg, and that they foster an open safety culture in which people feel comfortable reporting concerns.
“Air accident investigators are more interested in understanding cause than in assigning blame, because our job is to make sure it doesn't happen again,” said Cox, the pilot-turned-consultant. Instead, he said, “the lawyers are held accountable.”
Perspective matters.
If an accident does occur, experts say it's important to keep the situation in mind.
For example, the casual observer might notice that many of the issues seem to affect just two types of planes: the Boeing 737 and the Airbus A320. But these families of planes account for more than half of the commercial jet fleet in service, so naturally they get the most coverage in news reports.
Experts also warn of confirmation bias: When an airline or manufacturer is caught up in a headline-grabbing incident, the media and the public tend to be wary of other problems involving that company, even if those issues have little to do with the company or aren't significant enough to attract the attention of safety agencies.
“When something happens, it takes time to discover and know exactly what happened and why it happened,” said Jeff Guzzetti, a former accident investigator for the FAA and NTSB. “And that's something that can't be done in one or even two news cycles.”
It can take months, and sometimes more than a year, for the NTSB to conduct an investigation and issue safety recommendations to prevent future accidents.
Boeing came under intense scrutiny after a fuselage panel blew off a 737 Max plane during flight in January, and rightly so, experts say. But several experts also said they received multiple calls from reporters in the months since seeking comment on issues involving Boeing planes in incidents that had little to do with the company.
“Just because a Boeing airplane has a mechanical problem doesn't necessarily mean it has anything to do with Boeing,” Plucznicki said.
In incidents involving fuselage panels, attention has focused on the manufacturer because the planes were nearly new, but experts say manufacturers likely aren't to blame when problems occur on planes that were delivered years ago and have been flying safely since then.
